Real or Imagined: Defensemen Part 2 (2015)
Doran Libin
2015-12-07
Taking a look at the Western Conference d-men and how they're trending. Buy, sell or hold? (Part 2)
This week continues the Real or Imagined series with the defensemen from Los Angeles to Winnipeg. The primary driver for defensemen delivering fantasy is points is power play time but there is something to be said for defensemen that are able to get their shots through. Two shots per game denotes a defenseman who is able to register shots at an above-average rate. Three shots per game is elite while four shots per game is almost unheard of. With defensemen struggling to score along with the rest of the league defensemen who can score goals are more valuable than ever.
As always the recommendations are for this year as opposed to keeper leagues.
Los Angeles
|
Player |
GP |
TOI |
PPTOI |
G |
A |
PPP |
SH/G |
SH% |
Status |
|
25 |
26:53 |
2:55 |
4 |
11 |
7 |
2.48 |
6.45 |
Hold |
|
|
25 |
21:24 |
1:58 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
1.60 |
7.5 |
Hold |
|
|
25 |
22:45 |
2:10 |
2 |
11 |
4 |
2.08 |
3.85 |
Hold |
|
|
24 |
20:51 |
0:06 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
1.42 |
0 |
Buy |
|
|
21 |
16:02 |
2:05 |
1 |
6 |
5 |
1.76 |
2.7 |
Hold/Sell |
|
|
19 |
13:58 |
0:55 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
0.95 |
5.56 |
Hold |
|
|
Derek Forbort |
7 |
12:45 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1.14 |
0 |
Waive |
|
3 |
12:26 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1.00 |
0 |
Hold |
|
|
1 |
17:28 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1.00 |
0 |
Waive |
The Kings have three defensemen who are known commodities in their roles on the L.A. defense. Doughty, Muzzin and Martinez have each been with the Kings for years and have settled into their respective roles. McNabb and Ehrhoff are newer to the team and are still settling into their roles. McNabb does not get much power play time but he often gets the opportunity to play alongside Drew Doughty. This sort of utilization has yet to pay off but based off last year’s 20 points in 70 games and his absurdly low shooting percentage thus far, McNabb should start to turn it around. Ehrhoff on the other hand already receives the third most power play minutes of King defensemen. That is a good thing as 70% of his points have come on the power play. He is currently on pace for 20 power play points but only 27 points overall, that ratio will not continue, although the general pace is to be expected.
Minnesota
|
Player |
GP |
TOI |
PPTOI |
G |
A |
PPP |
SH/G |
SH% |
Status |
|
25 |
16:32 |
1:40 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
1.88 |
8.51 |
Hold |
|
|
25 |
22:18 |
1:52 |
3 |
11 |
5 |
1.28 |
9.38 |
Buy |
|
|
25 |
28:06 |
3:41 |
4 |
17 |
8 |
2.36 |
6.78 |
Sell |
|
|
24 |
20:57 |
0:05 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
0.88 |
4.76 |
Sell |
|
|
18 |
10:21 |
1:04 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0.28 |
0 |
Waive |
|
|
18 |
20:10 |
0:02 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
1.61 |
10.34 |
Hold |
|
|
Christian Folin |
14 |
12:49 |
0:02 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0.36 |
0 |
Waive |
|
Gustav Olofsson |
2 |
9:51 |
0:00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.50 |
0 |
Waive |
It is amazing what a difference a decent power play can make. Even at just 18% the power play is clicking enough to make Ryan Suter relevant again. Suter has been a force this year as he has been involved in 25% of all the goals the Wild have scored thus far. Last year in an admittedly off year he was involved in less than 10% of the goals the Wild scored. Given those numbers it should come as no surprise that Suter has gone from regularly having an IPP no higher than 36 to an IPP of 50 to start the season. Jared Spurgeon on the other hand is finally getting some power play time and as such is on pace for nearly 40 points. He is also playing first pairing minutes with Ryan Suter and both are thriving. Suter himself recently said that he is much more comfortable with Spurgeon than Jonas Brodin, his regular partner last year. This development is lifting the production of both defensemen however Spurgeon’s improvement is more sustainable.
Nashville
|
Player |
GP |
TOI |
PPTOI |
G |
A |
PPP |
SH/G |
SH% |
Status |
|
26 |
17:56 |
0:13 |
3 |
6 |
1 |
1.12 |
10.34 |
Hold |
|
|
26 |
19:05 |
2:19 |
1 |
9 |
3 |
2.08 |
1.85 |
Buy |
|
|
26 |
25:32 |
3:07 |
5 |
13 |
8 |
2.27 |
8.47 |
Hold |
|
|
26 |
25:02 |
3:05 |
9 |
7 |
11 |
2.62 |
13.24 |
Hold |
|
|
25 |
19:44 |
2:14 |
2 |
9 |
3 |
1.96 |
8.63 |
Hold |
|
|
Barrett Jackman |
25 |
14:16 |
0:00 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1.04 |
5.45 |
Hold |
|
1 |
14:14 |
0:00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Waive |
|
|
Anthony Bitetto |
1 |
13:08 |
0:00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1.00 |
0 |
Waive |
This is perhaps the deepest defense in the NHL and seemingly the healthiest. There are four defensemen getting two minutes of power play time per game and each of those four average around two shots per game. Most teams are lucky to have a single defenseman average two shots per game nevermind four. With a defense this deep Mattias Ekholm gets relegated to even strength minutes and the penalty kill, meaning that unless he gets traded he has maximized his value. Seth Jones, however has drawn the long straw. He plays third pairing minutes but gets two minutes of power play per game. He largely gets placed in situations in which it is easier to generate offense. He is also the prime candidate to benefit from any injuries to the top four. Along with his 30 point pace Jones offers a block and a hit per game; while he cannot carry a defense he is contributing well in all categories with the definite promise of more in short order.
San Jose
|
Player |
GP |
TOI |
PPTOI |
G |
A |
PPP |
SH/G |
SH% |
Status |
|
26 |
26:52 |
4:07 |
10 |
12 |
11 |
4.58 |
8.40 |
Buy |
|
|
26 |
17:01 |
0:07 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
1.04 |
3.70 |
Hold |
|
|
25 |
22:45 |
2:01 |
3 |
9 |
3 |
1.68 |
7.14 |
Hold |
|
|
24 |
20:59 |
0:48
📢 advertisement:
|
0 |
7 |
1 |
1.38 |
0 |
Hold |
|
|
23 |
21:32 |
0:17 |
1 |
6 |
0 |
0.65 |
6.67 |
Hold |
|
|
Matt Tennyson |
22 |
11:22 |
1:34 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1.00 |
4.55 |
Hold |
|
8 |
10:21 |
0:16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.63 |
0 |
Hold |
|
|
Dylan Demelo |
2 |
13:19 |
0:14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1.00 |
0 |
Waive |
In the last five seasons there has only been one defenseman has taken more than 300 shots over an 80 game season, Burns is on pace to easily become the season. This prolific shooting pace and his current shooting pace, which is he fully capable of sustaining, give him a shot at 30 goals. Only 17 defensemen have scored 30 goals in the history of the NHL with only one having done so in the last 20 years. To that end only two defensemen have even scored as many as 23 goals in the last five years, making what Burns is doing this year ridiculously valuable. The way Burns dominates the power play minutes given to Shark to defensemen makes it very difficult for other in the corps to generate significant points.
St Louis
|
Player |
GP |
TOI |
PPTOI |
G |
A |
PPP |
SH/G |
SH% |
Status |
|
27 |
23:11 |
0:50 |
1 |
5 |
1 |
1.48 |
2.50 |
Hold |
|
|
27 |
18:12 |
0:05 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
1.00 |
3.70 |
Hold |
|
|
27 |
26:55 |
2:32 |
2 |
9 |
3 |
2.67 |
2.78 |
Soft Buy |
|
|
25 |
19:10 |
1:52 |
5 |
8 |
3 |
2.16 |
9.26 |
Sell/Hold |
|
|
Joel Edmundson |
23 |
13:43 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
1.22 |
0 |
Waive |
|
17 |
21:05 |
2:53 |
3 |
9 |
6 |
2.12 |
8.33 |
Hold |
|
|
15 |
12:42 |
0:03 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1.27 |
5.25 |
Hold |
|
|
2 |
7:31 |
0:16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.00 |
0 |
Waive |
Colton Parayko had it sweet with Shattenkirk out of the lineup. It should be no surprise than that his production has fallen off, since Shattenkirk’s return, even though he still gets second unit power play minutes. Parayko still brings lots of value but not at the same level as his current point pace. Many of the points that were going to Parayko are now going to Kevin Shattenkirk as he resumes his rightful place on the power play. Shattenkirk is hugely overachieving in his return with 9.07 points per 60 minutes on the power play but he has missed enough time that he is probably still a little undervalued. In all the upheaval on the Blues defense Alex Pietrangelo is averaging more shots per game than ever in his career. He is also scoring on half the number of shots he normally does, which would be reason for optimism if it were not the continuation a pattern of falling shooting percentages throughout his career.
Vancouver
|
Player |
GP |
TOI |
PPTOI |
G |
A |
PPP |
SH/G |
SH% |
Status |
|
27 |
18:54 |
0:20 |
2 |
5 |
0 |
0.93 |
8.00 |
Hold |
|
|
27 |
24:22 |
3:36 |
5 |
9 |
4 |
1.89 |
9.80 |
Sell |
|
|
26 |
21:30 |
1:24 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
0.69 |
5.56 |
Hold |
|
|
25 |
19:52 |
0:42 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
1.08 |
0 |
Sell |
|
|
21 |
17:38 |
1:58 |
0 |
8 |
2 |
1.48 |
0 |
Hold |
|
|
21 |
19:17 |
3:26 |
0 |
4 |
4 |
1.81 |
0 |
Soft Buy |
|
|
18 |
17:10 |
0:07 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
0.72 |
7.69 |
Hold |
|
|
3 |
16:58 |
0:05 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.33 |
0 |
Waive |
|
|
Andrey Pedan |
1 |
3:10 |
0:00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.00 |
0 |
Waive |
The Canucks defense lacks high-end fantasy relevance. Alex Edler is on pace for 40 points but is also scoring on nearly 10% of his shots. That means that Edler is scoring on twice as many shots this year as he normally has throughout his career, thus the 15 goal pace, despite never having scored more than 11 goals. Chris Tanev is a defensive defenseman first and foremost. Then there is Dan Hamhuis, ostensibly the number three defenseman on the team, who barely averages a shot per game. Both Tanev and Hamhuis derive all their fantasy from hits and blocks as neither get many points or take many penalties. If there is value to be found on the Canucks defense it is in the bottom three of Weber, Hutton and Bartkowski. They all bring different aspects. Bartkowski brings more hits and blocks, Weber brings power play potential while Hutton does a little of everything.
Winnipeg
|
Player |
GP |
TOI |
PPTOI |
G |
A |
PPP |
SH/G |
SH% |
Status |
|
27 |
23:42 |
3:22 |
7 |
10 |
6 |
3.22 |
8.05 |
Hold |
|
|
27 |
19:17 |
0:48 |
1 |
7 |
0 |
0.59 |
6.25 |
Hold |
|
|
27 |
20:55 |
2:09 |
2 |
6 |
1 |
1.81 |
4.08 |
Hold |
|
|
27 |
17:18 |
0:02 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0.74 |
5.00 |
Hold |
|
|
27 |
20:17 |
0:25 |
2 |
4 |
0 |
1.33 |
5.56 |
Buy |
|
|
15 |
14:27 |
0:00 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
0.93 |
0 |
Hold |
|
|
10 |
14:05 |
0:00 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0.50 |
0 |
Waive |
|
|
2 |
10:05 |
0:00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1.50 |
0 |
Waive |
The Jets only use two defensemen on the power play for the most part. Byfuglien gets the bulk of the minutes while Myers gets the remaining minutes. This benefitted Byfuglien in a big way but no one else. Myers has barely been able to outshoot Trouba despite getting two extra minutes of power play time per game. Given the usage Myers should be out producing Enstrom and Trouba by a mile instead they are roughly even with Myers only having a single power play point. This horrible misusage has drained a lot of the value from both Trouba and Enstrom. Trouba at least gets hits, blocks and penalty minutes at elite levels.
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