Real or Imagined: Forwards Part 3 – LAK, MIN, NSH (2016)
Doran Libin
2016-12-26
The column this week will focus once again on forwards, and will be the final edition of the Real or Imagined series for this year. In the interest of expediency here is a brief list of the factors that go into the evaluation of the forwards in this column: shot quantity and quality, primary points, IPP, ice time, in general as well as on the power play and linemates. For more information on the criteria look at last week’s column.
The recommendations below are for this season only.
Los Angeles
|
Player |
GP |
TOI/G |
PP TOI % |
G |
A |
PPP |
SH% |
OSH% |
S/G |
SC/G |
Status |
|
34 |
15.40 |
5.9 |
5 |
5 |
0 |
9.62 |
8.66 |
1.5 |
0.61 |
Hold |
|
|
34 |
18.15 |
57.3 |
19 |
10 |
8 |
17.12 |
10.34 |
3.3 |
1.00 |
Soft Sell |
|
|
34 |
14.15 |
5.1 |
5 |
7 |
1 |
8.77 |
7.21 |
1.7 |
0.53 |
Soft Sell |
|
|
Nick Shore |
33 |
12.15 |
3.8 |
2 |
4 |
0 |
5.71 |
7.59 |
1.1 |
0.44 |
Hold |
|
32 |
16.05 |
33.7 |
4 |
11 |
4 |
6.15 |
8.51 |
2.0 |
0.75 |
Soft Buy |
|
|
32 |
17.67 |
53.4 |
8 |
12 |
4 |
8.60 |
10.61 |
2.9 |
1.09 |
Hold/ Soft Buy |
|
|
32 |
15.70 |
44.0 |
7 |
8 |
4 |
11.86 |
9.18 |
1.8 |
0.97 |
Hold |
|
|
Nic Dowd |
30 |
13.41 |
34.5 |
4 |
9 |
5 |
10.26 |
7.27 |
1.3 |
0.73 |
Soft Buy |
|
29 |
21.17 |
61.6 |
3 |
13 |
4 |
4.92 |
7.10 |
2.1 |
0.76 |
Hard Buy |
|
|
Devin Setoguchi |
28 |
13.15 |
16.3 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
10.26 |
7.35 |
1.4 |
0.57 |
Soft Buy |
|
27 |
10.50 |
2.6 |
2 |
4 |
0 |
4.26 |
6.52 |
1.7 |
0.52 |
Hold |
|
|
24 |
10.41 |
2.9 |
2 |
3 |
0 |
11.11 |
5.43 |
0.8 |
0.21 |
Hold |
|
|
Andy Andreoff |
15 |
10.33 |
0.4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.00 |
3.03 |
0.6 |
0.13 |
Hold |
|
12 |
14.67 |
30.3 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
4.00 |
6.93 |
2.1 |
1.33 |
Buy |
|
|
12 |
12.90 |
16.8 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0.00 |
5.80 |
0.8 |
0.08 |
Waive |
The Kings are a hard team to do much with in terms of lines because Darryl Sutter’s lines are regularly put in a blender. The Kings are also a tough fantasy team because they play a low-event, high-possession game of hockey. Other than Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter and Tyler Toffoli the top six is a jumble. Anze Kopitar, upon his return, provides a great opportunity to get a player at a lower price from others who have not been paying close attention. Kopitar’s rate stats are down but improving, and his individual and on-ice shooting percentages have been dreadful. Gaborik’s return gives the Kings a real top-six option and he has been playing like it with 9.45 shots per 60 and 5.5 scoring chances. For the moment, Kopitar and Gaborik have been playing together and the Kings have very few real top-six options this year. The Kings other two top six staples, Carter and Toffoli, are both still good options although Carter is having greater success thanks to favorable percentages at even strength which have buoyed his IPP and goal rate with little evidence of an uptick anywhere else in his game. Toffoli on the other hand cannot buy a goal at even strength despite his rate stats being within their usual range. Trevor Lewis got a chance in the top six but his numbers do not support him staying up there, do not expect much out of him other than hits. The kings have a plethora of players in the same mold as Lewis, such as Dwight King, Kyle Clifford Jordan Nolan and Nick Shore, who provide limited value in traditional fantasy terms, but provide varying degrees of usefulness in multi-category leagues. Finally the Nic Dowd-Dustin Brown-Devin Setoguchi line is interesting as they have yet to score much but have some intriguing rate stats. Looking at them as a line goes against the opening statement for the Kings but they are the line that has played together the most for the Kings. They have the third highest expected-goals-per-60 and third highest scoring-chances-per-60 of any King forward line that has played more than 50 minutes together. They also have one of the lowest line shooting percentages, which suggests some nice room for growth.
Minnesota
|
Player |
GP |
TOI/G |
PP TOI % |
G |
A |
PPP |
SH% |
OSH% |
S/G |
SC/G |
Status |
|
33 |
10.50 |
5.4 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
20.00 |
9.82 |
0.8 |
0.30 |
Hard Sell |
|
|
33 |
14.75 |
35.7 |
9 |
13 |
3 |
15.25 |
11.94 |
1.8 |
0.76 |
Soft Sell |
|
|
33 |
17.75 |
50.4 |
12 |
15 |
5 |
16.90 |
10.20 |
2.2 |
1.03 |
Soft Sell |
|
|
33 |
19.45 |
41.9 |
8 |
17 |
6 |
14.81 |
12.54 |
1.6 |
0.70 |
Hard Sell |
|
|
33 |
19.30 |
51.1 |
11 |
17 |
7 |
11.96 |
10.21 |
2.8 |
1.12 |
Soft Sell |
|
|
33 |
14.50 |
20.1 |
5 |
8 |
2 |
7.35 |
7.00 |
2.1 |
0.67 |
Hold |
|
|
33 |
19.90 |
43.8 |
9 |
12 |
4 |
16.98 |
11.38 |
1.6 |
0.79 |
Hard Sell |
|
|
33 |
13.85 |
5.4
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|
8 |
14 |
0 |
13.79 |
12.89 |
1.8 |
0.55 |
Hard Sell |
|
|
Tyler Graovac |
25 |
9.85 |
1.8 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
13.64 |
5.68 |
0.9 |
0.39 |
Waive |
|
24 |
18.33 |
51.0 |
5 |
8 |
3 |
6.94 |
7.66 |
3.0 |
1.46 |
Buy |
|
|
23 |
14.20 |
6.0 |
5 |
5 |
0 |
11.63 |
8.86 |
1.9 |
0.43 |
Hold |
|
|
Zack Mitchell |
10 |
8.67 |
1.2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.9 |
0.20 |
Waive |
|
Kurtis Gabriel |
10 |
5.90 |
0.0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0.00 |
11.11 |
0.3 |
0.10 |
Waive |
|
9 |
9.40 |
10.9 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
25.00 |
13.16 |
0.4 |
0.22 |
Sell |
|
|
9 |
8.55 |
0.2 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
12.50 |
16.13 |
0.9 |
0.22 |
Waive |
The Wild are seventh in the league in goals per 60 but 20th in the league in scoring chances per 60 and 16th in the league in expected goals per 60. Given those statistics it should not be surprising that they are second in shooting percentage. While Bruce Boudreau coached teams have had a history of higher scoring percentages they have also typically rated much better in terms of scoring chances and expected goals. The table of Wild forwards above features an abundance of forwards that have on-ice shooting percentages over 10% making most of them great candidates for regression especially when combined with their almost universal high individual shooting percentages. The biggest regression candidates are Jason Zucker, who has countered his lack of power play time with great percentages, Mikko Koivu, whose shooting percentage is twice what is has been in three of the last four years, and Mikael Granlund. Charlie Coyle and Nino Niederreiter have seemingly insanely high shooting percentages but have also had flashes of being able to sustain similar, but lower, individual shooting percentages over a full season. Eric Staal is a similar case but he is getting a shot at playing highly talented players once again and in favorable situations making his success more sustainable. Erik Haula and Jason Pominville have not reaped the rewards that the other top nine forwards have seen, neither have they been able to recreate last season’s late year success but they still provide decent value. If there is a ‘buy’ candidate on the Wild it is Zach Parise who still shoots a ton but his shooting percentage is roughly two thirds of what it has been the last four years. Finally, Chris Stewart provides some peripheral value but any traditional value he provided early in the season is withering away despite his 20% shooting percentage.
Nashville
|
Player |
GP |
TOI/G |
PP TOI % |
G |
A |
PPP |
SH% |
OSH% |
S/G |
SC/G |
Status |
|
33 |
18.70 |
53.4 |
7 |
16 |
11 |
8.75 |
8.67 |
2.4 |
0.91 |
Hold/Soft Buy |
|
|
33 |
16.05 |
43.5 |
4 |
15 |
5 |
14.81 |
8.92 |
0.8 |
0.33 |
Hold |
|
|
33 |
18.65 |
49.0 |
5 |
14 |
4 |
5.81 |
9.38 |
2.6 |
1.12 |
Hard Buy |
|
|
33 |
13.99 |
2.8 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
12.20 |
7.37 |
1.2 |
0.36 |
Hold |
|
|
33 |
16.10 |
24.0 |
9 |
14 |
3 |
8.41 |
8.64 |
3.2 |
0.76 |
Hold/Soft Buy |
|
|
32 |
15.85 |
34.6 |
5 |
10 |
2 |
9.43 |
9.42 |
1.7 |
0.63 |
Hold |
|
|
32 |
14.33 |
30.8 |
6 |
6 |
3 |
9.84 |
8.98 |
1.9 |
1.03 |
Hold |
|
|
29 |
11.50 |
2.9 |
1 |
5 |
0 |
3.23 |
7.35 |
1.1 |
0.28 |
Hold |
|
|
29 |
16.50 |
50.4 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
16.36 |
10.77 |
1.9 |
0.93 |
Hold |
|
|
29 |
18.95 |
52.7 |
14 |
6 |
5 |
14.89 |
9.03 |
3.2 |
1.10 |
Soft Sell |
|
|
Colton Sissons |
25 |
10.10 |
0.1 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
22.22 |
4.60 |
0.4 |
0.24 |
Hold |
|
23 |
12.99 |
7.3 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
9.80 |
4.49 |
2.2 |
0.91 |
Gamble |
|
|
Pontus Aberg |
9 |
11.70 |
0.0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
14.29 |
12.82 |
0.8 |
0.00 |
Sell |
|
Cody Bass |
9 |
6.75 |
0.0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.1 |
0.00 |
Sell |
|
Frederick Gaudreau |
8 |
8.70 |
0.9 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0.00 |
6.82 |
1.0 |
0.38 |
Sell |
Filip Forsberg is a great example of a player due some regression help. While he is averaging one fewer shot per 60, his scoring chance rate is similar to the last two years. Furthermore, he is on pace to get more shots off rebounds and the rush than he has in previous years. It does not make sense, given those factors, that his shooting percentage would be so low this season. Mike Fisher on the other hand is averaging more shots and more scoring chances than in previous years including having basically equaled his totals for shots off rebounds and the rush from each of the last two years. It would be surprising if he was not seeing a surge in his production this year. James Neal has seen no uptick in any of his rate stats to justify his elevated goal numbers and should come back down to earth. That fall should be cushioned slightly by some correction of an absurdly low assist rate, driven by his lack of a secondary assist at even strength. Johansen and Arvidsson have both struggled a little at even strength despite their rate stats remaining constant from the previous season. Arvidsson is particularly interesting as he boasts the fourth highest even strength shot rate and seventh in the league in all situations. Meaning he does not need a great shooting percentage to score 25 goals, only about eight percent. Mike Ribeiro is still doing Mike Ribeiro things, namely creating scoring chances for others and only shooting at open nets. He is amongst the best examples of a pass-first, highly selective shooter who can maintain a high shooting percentage because he only shoots when it absolutely the best option available. Colin Wilson, Craig Smith and Calle Jarnkrok look to have settled into this iteration of the Predators as peripheral players, none of them do anything well enough to warrant consideration as anything other than depth options. Kevin Fiala is the best bet to fill in if an injury strikes but until then his offense, and presence in the lineup, will be sporadic. Austin Watson is a decent multi-category depth option while Colton Sissons provides hit and only hits.
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