Rambling about Panarin, Talbot, Tlusty, Palmieri, Klingberg, the next Dubnyk and more …

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When last we met, I was the bearer of bad news. Connor McDavid. How are you McDavid owners holding up? Curious to see what you did. In keeper leagues you obviously held onto him (let me know in the comments if you didn’t…and why, because I’m sure you had a reason). But in one-year leagues, did you trade him for whatever you could get or are you hoping he can still play 45 games?

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I got sucked into the rabbit hole that is also known as the “forum” yesterday and answered a couple dozen posts. I usually go in there a couple of timers per day and answer one or two that catch my eye before getting back to work, but occasionally I get pulled in and held there thanks to some intriguing questions and interesting tidbits. One member asked about the Penguins offense, and I figured it would be a good ramble.

I thought that Coach Mike Johnston was the problem and still kind of do. But watching the games, the Penguins do push the offense and the forwards are just snakebitten. A big part of this is their power play. Look at it like this – with one more PP goal per game, think of how the opposition would have to open up a little more at ES. Then think about how opening up at ES would allow PIT so score more goals. Domino effect. They have to get the power play going, so if Mike Johnston refuses to replace their special teams coach who I believe is still Rick Tocchet, then Johnson has to go. The buck stops with him. But the issue here is the power play. To have Malkin, Crosby, Kessel, Letang and Hornqvist and sit 21^st in the league is beyond ridiculous. I, and any one of you, could coach those five guys and get a better power play result.

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Another thread I liked is the Talbot vs. Ullmark thread. It’s a one-year league, so do you put your hope on Linus Ullmark continuing to prove himself and steal the backup job when Robin Lehner returns and eventually steal the top job this year? Or do you hope that Talbot can seize control of the Edmonton job, which he still hasn’t done one month into the season?

That got me thinking about goaltending steals. Who will be this year’s Dubnyk? Here are the criterion:

1. He would need to currently be a backup with decent upside, and would likely have the numbers to support that upside but not necessarily so.

2. A starting goalie would need to get injured, or a long-term need would need to exist elsewhere in the league.

So while it’s impossible to project an injury like that (Lundqvist? Miller? Fleury? There are about 20 goaltenders you could list), it is possible to guess at some of the backups. For this, my four favorites are Brian Elliott, Anton Khudobin, Michael Hutchinson and Alex Stalock. Those four would not only garner some interest around the league, but are in a position where the team would be fine with moving them as they have their goaltending future in place elsewhere. Any other 1A/1B situation involves goaltenders the team would like to keep. Would Dallas trade Lehtonen? Nope. Would Detroit trade Mrazek? Nope. Carolina trade Lack? No, they just got him and signed him. Ward? That’s possible, I suppose. So is James Reimer with Toronto. But what is the market like for those two? Not much. Darling, Raanta, Condon, Vasilevskiy are each goaltenders that their club would like to keep and have some future hope with.  No, to me it’s Elliott, Khudobin, Hutchinson or Stalock.

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It’s impossible to take a shot during a 3-on-3 without giving up an odd-man rush. Watch. Happens every time but you don’t notice unless you think about it. OT starts and one team will play keep away for as long as possible. Usually lasts about a minute. But then they get a lane open and get off a good shot. And that’s when it begins – rush the other way, the shot, another miss. Fast rush back again, another shot, etc. Back and forth.

Just an observation as I type this watching the VAN-NJ game.

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Jiri Tlusty is getting the Brian O’Neill treatment now. That is to say, he’s playing for his job and only getting his minutes by default. He’s getting the scraps. Odds of climbing out of such a hole are dismal at best. Hell, the odds of his turning his career around and hitting his potential were slim even before the season, but now the dream would seem to be quite dead. Just 9:09 of ice time in a game that went 63 minutes. I guess if he wanted to hold onto hope and look at some bright side he could look at Tomas Fleischmann, whose career was on life support.

Jake Virtanen left Sunday’s game after a fight. It looked like he hurt his hand. Here is the footage:

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Sven Baertschi picked up two points (including his first goal) to give him four in his last five games. His ice time is still being held, sitting at nine minutes last night and generally hovering between nine and 13. That’s a good thing in terms of long-term development, as he is an emotional player with a tendency for hot/cold streaks. But it pretty much sets his ceiling at 40 points for 2015-16. And I don’t see the coach opening things up for him. He’ll put in his time and get a longer leash next year.

Kyle Palmieri is on fire. Two more points including the OT winner gives him eight points in his last five games. I believe in him. I think he can produce at a 65-point pace with the Devils, or even more. But he’s so fragile that I wonder if he can get in 75 games. We shall see, I guess. I took him as a waiver pick up before the season started in one of my leagues, thinking I’ll keep him until he gets injured (which to me is inevitable). But if he stays healthy, he’s a huge steal.

By now, not very many (none?) fantasy owners have Adam Larsson in their lineup. So did they ever miss out on his assist, plus-2, 2 BLKS and 17 PIM last night…

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Patrick Sharp I think is back in all of our good books, is he not? I had him pencilled in for 52 points (in 71 games) in the Guide and later upped that to 57 points after becoming convinced that he would spend more time on that top line than initially thought. Then he started the year with three points in eight games. He has nine points in his last seven games. No shocker here, but if you look at his player profile you’ll see that he has 11 of his 12 points with Benn and Seguin.

Interesting note – Sharp has played 20 minutes or more three times this season but didn’t have a point in those games. I guess if they take it easy on him with the ice time he performs?

Valeri Nichushkin scored his first NHL goal since April 21 of 2014.

John Klingberg has 15 points in 15 games and points in 11 of those games. He’s truly pulling an Erik Karlsson, exceeding even my admittedly high expectations. He’ll slow down when Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn slow down. But will Seguin and Benn ever slow down? Well, come on. Seguin’s pace is 126 points, Benn’s is 115.

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The Blues announced that Robby Fabbri will stick with them for the entire season. So he’s an NHLer for good now. I’m a little surprised, but this is obviously an easier decision thanks to all of the injuries that have hit the team so far. My expectations are modest for this year – say 40 points. But two years from now he could have a breakout not unlike Tarasenko’s.

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Frank Vatrano is doing his part to stay in the Boston lineup. No points last night but he had five shots on goal and two hits as a follow up to his first NHL game in which he scored his first NHL point. Here’s our profile on him (via DobberProspects).

Colin Miller’s point streak snapped at six games after he was shut out Sunday. Tremendous potential with this 23-year-old, but his ice time (under 15 minutes) preaches caution. He’s not a lock yet, far from it.

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Josh Bailey was a healthy scratch for the Isles. Taylor Beck came in to replace him. They bench Bailey and send Ryan Strome to the minors. This is a better team than the barely-over-500 team we’re seeing. This is my pick for the next coach to go. Good work Jack Capuano, you coached them for five-plus seasons, now it’s time to move on.

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Cam Talbot has lost four of his last five starts and he’s given up at least three goals in each of them. His 0.893 SV% is no better than Ben Scrivens.

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Artemi Panarin, superstar. Kind of has a nice ring to it. I wonder if his tremendous NHL success is going to lure more KHLers across the pond. I suspect it will. And with Tarasenko, Ovechkin, Malkin and Kuznetsov here…Alexander Radulov and Ilya Kovalchuk have to be getting the itch, no?

So McDavid is hurt and Jack Eichel isn’t lighting up the scoreboard. The “what if” or “maybe” scenario that we may have floated in the preseason is coming to pass – someone else is going to be winning this Calder Trophy. As of today, it’s Panarin’s. With Colton Parayko as the runner up and McDavid as the third guy. Three months from now, when McDavid is completely out of the rookie race, it will be Panarin, Parayko and either Nik Ehlers or Sam Bennett. Mark it! I don’t believe in Oscar Lindberg, and I think Max Domi and Dylan Larkin slow (to 50 points). And of course Eichel can surge in the second half and get himself back in it.

Here’s Panarin with a ridiculous shot: