A couple of ways to use game theory in fantasy, and new power play situations.

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The fantasy season is quickly approaching, as in, very quickly. The early fantasy drafts have started taking place, and many will take place in the coming few weeks leading up to preseason.

The odd thing about fantasy preparation, with the abundance of information, is that it starts to put everyone on equal footing. I was listening to a football show yesterday and a caller called in who had been playing fantasy for close to a couple decades. The caller lamented exactly that fact, and they were right. It is not easy to find a way to gain an advantage in fantasy leagues anymore.

With the cornucopia of information available, players need to find other ways to gain an edge. One way to do that is through game theory.

For anyone unfamiliar with game theory, it’s essentially analyzing and developing optimal strategies that is based on the anticipated actions of others. The applications are very broad – everything from business decisions, to personal economic decisions, to military strategy, to the poker room, and basically anywhere else.

Of course, there are applications in fantasy. Here are a couple things to keep in mind for your draft.

Pick A Middling Draft Spot

Assuming that most top players will finish bunched together in point-scoring, and other than Sidney Crosby in 2013-2014, they have for the last couple years, then there really isn’t much separating the players at the beginning of the draft. Is there a huge difference between Steven Stamkos and a healthy Corey Perry? What about Jamie Benn and Vladimir Tarasenko? Picking at the top of the draft doesn’t really offer a lot of advantages.

One huge disadvantage in a snake draft of picking at the top, or at the end, are the eventual runs. Who hasn’t been in a draft at one of the ends, and saw eight or nine goalies drafted before their turn came? Something like this can drastically alter a draft plan, and hurt the roster overall.

The advantage of drafting in the middle is that the drafter can never really be caught out of a run. The second advantage is that the drafter can predict who the players around them will draft. If you’re picking in three picks, with two players ahead of you needing a top-end defenceman, and there is only Victor Hedman and Shea Weber left for top-end defenceman, you can bet that they won’t be there for your pick. At that point, it’s not worth it to grab a lower-tier defenceman if there are six or seven of those left on the board. Rather, it’s prudent to grab another top forward or maybe your first goalie. There should still be a lower-tier defenceman left on the board for your next pick.

Taking that middling draft spot not only helps stay in the middle of runs, it can also help predict what the neighbours around you will do. Having that advantage is important to building a solid roster from top to bottom.

Know Your League Mates

Knowing league mates can help not only during the draft, but also during the season. This came up to me in a question in my Dobber thread yesterday. The reader wanted goal scoring, and was willing to trade away Nicklas Backstrom. I recommended going for Max Pacioretty. The reader informed me that the guy with Pacioretty is a huge Habs fan, and that Habs fan basically laughed at the trade proposal.

That trade proposal is fair for both sides, but the underlying motivation of fandom made it seem ridiculous. This is crucial information for in-season trades. If you need a goal scorer, good luck prying Pacioretty from a hardcore Habs fan that involves that level of fandom as part of their decision-making process.

What it also means is that it’s possible to gain a lot of value in a trade with these owners. Maybe you drafted Nazem Kadri and he goes on a two month heater to start the season. Find the nearest crazed Maple Leafs fan, and shoot for the moon. It doesn’t even need to be a straight-up trade. Want to make a lopsided trade seem more even to a Canucks fan? Throw in Alex Burrows as a sweetener.

This isn’t always possible. Some online drafts are with random strangers. They can also be live drafts at a local bar. All is not lost, though. Look for visual clues. Is the person’s Yahoo avatar the flaming Calgary ‘C’? Make a note of that, and grab Sam Bennett late. Did someone show up to the draft at the bar wearing a Claude Giroux jersey? Put that in the mental vault, and maybe grab Mark Streit when it’s appropriate. These small things can lead to something big two, three, or more months down the road.

These two things are just scraping the surface of game theory. There are waiver pickups to block others from a player off a favourite team, aggressive waiver wire bidding if a goalie goes down with an injury, and a whole lot more. Expand your knowledge on the subject, apply the lessons to fantasy hockey, and gain an edge on the competition.

Precarious Power Plays

There are power play situations, namely players, that can see their situation change quite a bit this year. Here are a few guys I’m keeping an eye on for different situations.

Detroit

This came to me again in the Forums today.

With Detroit bringing in Mike Green, it’s clear they’re looking for offence from the blue line. There were 32 defencemen who scored at least 10 goals last year, Detroit led the league in power play goals by 10, and yet none of their defencemen had 10 goals personally. In fact, Niklas Kronwall was the only one that managed more than five.

Green should see a lot of power play time, and that will cut into Kronwall’s time quite a bit. Over half his points last year (44), came on the power play (23). If Kronwall’s power play time goes down, his overall point total should as well. This makes me really hesitant to draft Kronwall next year, and would probably rather let him be on someone else’s team.

Dallas

The hype in Dallas is obviously with their glut of top-end forwards. They also have John Klingberg on the blue line, a guy who will probably sneak into the top-10 drafted defencemen in some drafts.

There is a lot of talent to go around. Assuming they run a four forward power play, that could still leave guys like Valeri Nichushkin and Ales Hemsky on the second unit. It would also mean Alex Goligoski on the second unit.

Any guesses how many defencemen have averaged 0.4 points per game and 1.5 shots per game in each of the last four seasons? The total is 15, and Goligoski is one of them. Even with secondary power play time, this is someone who could get grabbed late as a fourth defenceman, provide 10 power play points, and have the value there.

Buffalo

There is still a long way to go in Buffalo, but one thing they should have is a decent top power play unit. The additions of Ryan O’Reilly and Evander Kane, drafting Jack Eichel, and a hopefully resurgent Matt Moulson, there should be enough talent on the first PP unit to make sure they get their fair share of goals.

Last year, Rasmus Ristolainen led the Buffalo blue line, by a lot, in power play time (not including Tyler Myers). There hasn’t been much brought in to challenge his time, so I would assume Ristolainen is back on the top unit.

There will be excitement about the Sabres, but probably not over their blue line. The plus/minus might take a hit, but if the top power play unit is successful, Ristolainen should be a big part of it. I have no problem drafting him as a fourth or fifth defenceman next year, especially in leagues without plus/minus. 

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