Craig Anderson's playoffs, and review the fantasy performance of a few Avalanche players in 2016-17. 

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Whatever happens in Game 7 between Ottawa and Pittsburgh, can we give a little love here to Craig Anderson? Even with allowing four goals on just 14 shots, playing less than a period, in Game 5, his overall save percentage for this series is a gaudy .938. In games one, two, three, and six, he allowed four total goals on 129 shots, good for a save percentage of .969. It really is crazy what he’s doing for this team.

It’s not the first time he’s done something like this, either. In 2010 with Colorado, he managed a .933 save percentage in a six-game series loss to San Jose. He faced, on average, 39.8 shots per game, at least 40 shots three times, and 50 shots twice.

For next season, the only problem with Anderson is his age, as he turned 36 last weekend. Goalies typically aren’t this good this late in their careers, but  he has a .920 save percentage over the last five seasons. He is Ottawa’s number-1 goalie again next year, and most of the same roster should be back. They also have a couple studs in Colin White and Thomas Chabot that should be able to help the team. I’m curious to see where his ADP will be next year. What do you think? Hit up the comments.  

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Throughout the summer, I will be going team by team and looking at some of the fantasy performances from the 2016-17 season, and what it could mean moving forward. The next squad in alphabetical order is the Colorado Avalanche. Oh boy.

It goes without saying (but I’ll say it anyway) that Colorado had an abysmal season. They were comparable to the 2013-14 and 2014-15 Buffalo Sabres teams, and Colorado was actually trying to win games. Everything fantasy-related is done with the understanding that this team can’t possibly get worse (I think). Also, I’m going to skip a couple of players just because rumours are they might be on the move (Matt Duchene in particular), so waiting to assess makes sense.

Nathan MacKinnon

After scoring 24 goals and managing 63 points as an 18-year-old rookie, the hockey world was preparing for another bona fide superstar. Since that season, he has 51 goals and 143 points in 218 games. On an 82-game basis, that works out to 19 goals and 54 points. He had 16 goals and 37 assists last year.

The concern here is obviously the 16 goals. Anyone who watched him in the World Cup, or even the World Championship, can see just how talented he is. MacKinnon’s shot rate is also among the league’s best, landing more on target per minute of five-on-five play than guys like Tyler Seguin or Jack Eichel over the last two years. The concern, then, is his shooting percentage, which was 5.59 percent at five-on-five last year, and 6.4 percent at all strengths.

I think it’s worth comparing his 24-goal rookie campaign, where he shot 10 percent, and this past season, to see if there are any differences.

The first thing to note, via Corsica, is that while his individual shot attempts per 60 minutes were relatively the same both seasons (15.7 last year compared to 15.3 in his first season), the drop in scoring chance rate was precipitous (3.0 to 2.5). Taking nearly as many shots is a good sign, but roughly a 17 percent drop in scoring chances is not.

This bears out when you look at his heat map of shots (via HockeyViz.com). You’ll notice where he had the highest density of shots was kind of flat across the mid-to-low slot four seasons ago, whereas it tailed off into the high slot this past season:

What is good news is that his scoring chances did increase from 2015-16 to 2016-17, so maybe things are getting better but one year on an awful team didn’t allow the results to flesh out. He also dropped his average shot distance to a career-low 27.1 feet, so if he can get in the right spots, that shooting percentage should right itself.

It’s hard not to have hope here. Just watching him, it’s obvious how much talent this player possesses, and he’s still just 22 years old. The team should (hopefully) improve over the summer, and he’ll be at a discount at the draft table for 2017-18. 

Mikko Rantanen

A rookie leading a team headlined by players like MacKinnon, Duchene, and Gabriel Landeskog in goal scoring is pretty special, regardless of where the team finished in the standings. Finishing the season with 20 goals and 18 assists, he finished 10^th in rookie scoring, but again, this was done on the lowest-scoring team in the league. All in all, a solid season.

What can fantasy owners expect next year?

It is hard to anticipate what Colorado will look like in two months. There are likely going to be trades, there is both an expansion and Entry Draft, plus free agency. There are only six forwards that were regulars for them last year that won’t be on an entry-level contract next year, and at least one of the six will probably be dealt. There is also going to be significant turnover on the blue line, in all likelihood, given the contracts expiring. Rather than looking ahead to next year, let’s delve a bit more into how Rantanen managed 20 goals.

The rookie’s five-on-five shooting percentage was high. Very high. In fact, out of 136 forwards with at least 1000 minutes at five-on-five, he finished 10^th in shooting percentage at 14.14 percent. It’s not to say it can’t stay high, as someone like Mark Stone has averaged about that mark (14.33 percent) over the last three years. Stone is an established player, however, and Rantanen is not. Expecting him to repeat close to that is unreliable at best – no one above him in the top-10 last year finished higher than 13 percent in 2015-16, and most were under 11 percent.

In order to build on this season next year, Rantanen will need to start shooting more. Again, it’s hard to say what the team will look like, or what his line will look like, but his shots on goal per minute last year was 213^th out of 262 forwards with at least 750 minutes played, and lower than guys like Tyler Bozak, Tom Wilson, and Adam Lowry. He is still a rookie, and that is expected to improve, but he needs to in order to mitigate a likely drop in shooting percentage.

Colorado has a long way to go next year, but guys like MacKinnon, Rantanen, and Tyson Jost are building blocks. They should improve on the last-place finish in goal scoring, but it will take a marked improvement team-wide to see a significant jump in Rantanen’s fantasy value. We’ll have to wait and see what they do this summer.

Tyson Barrie

Finishing with 38 points in 74 games, Barrie would have likely cracked the 40-point mark had he been in the lineup all season. Once again, he finished near the top of the league in points per 60 minutes at five-on-five for blue liners, and is top-10 over the last four years.

It was the first time in four seasons that Barrie failed to crack the double-digit goal plateau, managing just seven. However, from 2013-16, he averaged a 9.2 shooting percentage over 222 games, and shot just 3.8 percent last year. The volume of shots went up, but his conversion rate cratered. That is something that should rebound next year.

Barrie also fell a bit in the power-play points department. After averaging nearly 16 PPP from 2013 through 2016, that fell to just 10 last year, with just one goal. This is an area where I have concern. Sure, he averaged over three minutes a game on the power play again this past season, but there could be three or four new defencemen brought in (assuming they don’t promote from within). There are also a handful of very capable puck-movers on the free agent market like Andrei Markov, Trevor Daley, and Cody Franson. Finally, if they do trade one of the players rumoured, it would make sense that a good defencemen is coming back. Is it a guy that will eat into Barrie’s minutes? Probably not, but we’ll have to play the waiting game to be sure.

Assuming Barrie is fine for training camp following his injury when he was, apparently, wrestling with a teammate at the World Championships (whatever happened to just playing mini-hockey in the hallway?), he should be just fine next year. Breaking 50 points again on a team that is going to presumably be poor offensively again is a long shot, but 40 points is within reach.