Ramblings: Drouin at Centre; Coveted Power-Play Spots – September 2

Michael Clifford

2017-09-01

The Montreal Canadiens have a centre problem in that they don’t have any.

Okay that’s obviously hyperbole but with the seeming unwillingness for either the prior or current coaching regime to give Alex Galchenyuk the top pivot slotting, there is concern here. Phillip Danault seems to be a quality player but I don’t think he’s suited for the top-line position. Tomas Plekanec may have been a few years ago but he’s not the player he used to be. Galchenyuk, due to defensive issues (both real and perceived), doesn’t seem likely to get that position for any length of time either.

That’s what makes this tweet interesting:

To translate, it seems Claude Julien at least wants Jonathan Drouin to get a look at centre in training camp for the Habs. That had been mused by fans and fantasy owners since the trade but now we have some sort of confirmation.

Drouin playing beside Max Pacioretty would obviously be a big help to the younger forward’s fantasy value. Pacioretty is easily the most potent offensive threat the team has with annual 30-goal reliability. In turn, Drouin would be more of a shooter than either Danault or Plekanec, and that could help Pacioretty’s assist totals of which he’s never amassed 35 in a single season.

How long this actually lasts is a completely other question entirely. If Drouin can stick there, however, he would likely be playing with the team’s top scorer both at five-on-five and on the power play, which should give him some additional ice time. With enough time, it would also give him the very valuable triple-position eligibility on Yahoo, as he’s both a left and right winger at the moment. This is something to keep an eye on as training camp progresses because if Drouin does indeed become the team’s top-line centre, it’s a huge boost to his prospects, and in turn would hinder Galchenyuk’s severely.

 

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Let’s take a spin around the league to look at some heavily-used top PP units that have a vacancy.

 

Philadelphia

As written about during a Ramblings reviewing the Flyers, this was a team that was reliant on power-play production not only for their team’s success, but the success of their top-end fantasy options like Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek. This was no less true for the newest St. Louis Blues forward, and former Flyer, Brayden Schenn.

It wasn’t just bad luck that got the Flyers to score so little at five-on-five, but they generated the ninth-fewest adjusted high-danger shots at five-on-five despite managing the 10th-most shot attempts. That means a lot of shots they took at five-on-five were, relatively speaking, not dangerous. With Nolan Patrick being their only real significant addition this off-season, unless the young defencemen take a huge step up in generating offence starting in the defensive zone and through the neutral zone, this team could struggle again to score at five-on-five.

The void left by Schenn, then, on the top power-play unit is to be very much coveted. As a left-handed shot, there are a few in-house options to take his spot. The coaching staff could offer it to Sean Couturier or Michael Raffl, trying to extract as much value as the latter as possible. Rather, outside of the four remaining holdovers from the top PP last year, I think it’s more of a rotating situation. I would personally like to see Travis Konecny get a chance, but it feels like it will be a fluid top PP spot all year. It could be frustrating for fantasy owners, and more useful for DFS than season-long leagues. 

 

Washington

For the better part of a decade now, the top power-play unit in Washington has been one of the most coveted areas in fantasy hockey. From Mike Green to Troy Brouwer to Marcus Johansson, just being on that top unit has, at times, garnered at least 20 power-play points simply by the proper slotting.

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Now that Johansson is in New Jersey and Justin Williams back in Carolina, there is a slot open on the top power-play unit aside from John Carlson, Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and TJ Oshie. Of the 32 players with at least 120 points over the last two seasons, Evgeny Kuznetsov is tied for 27th in power-play points with 32, with only Max Pacioretty (30) and Mark Scheifele (26) having fewer. Both Johansson and Kuznetsov are left-handed shots, which should make the transition a bit more seamless.

Of course, this is all assuming the coaching staff continues to use the top PP unit heavily (they should) and that Kuznetsov is the lock for the top unit (he should). For those looking as to how Kuznetsov can break the 70-point mark again despite not playing on the top line for the team, if he can become an integral part of the top quintet, he could add 10 points in this regard. I think there’s a chance Andre Burakovsky could take some of that PP time, but I would wager on it largely being Kuznetsov for the majority of the season. That makes the young Russian centre a better bet to return a top-50 ADP value than if Johansson were still around.

 

San Jose

Patrick Marleau was a mainstay on San Jose’s number-1 power-play unit for years but he has moved on to the Toronto Maple Leafs. That leaves a hole among that forward group that would be hugely beneficial to whichever skater gets the nod (Marleau averaged 22 power-play points a season playing alongside the likes of Joe Thornton and Brent Burns over the last four campaigns).

Another injury-plagued season was the fate of Tomas Hertl last year who has now managed to play fewer than 50 games in two of his four NHL seasons. However, he has shown chemistry when given the chance to play with Thornton in the past (to be fair, who wouldn’t), and is a left-handed shot that can slot in to take Marleau’s spot. I mean that quite literally, too. As a left-handed shot on the second power-play unit, Hertl often found himself taking shots from the middle of the mid-to-low slot area. It was nearly identical to where Marleau would set up shop. Below are two images detailing this from the past year via HockeyViz:

If the coaching staff wants the same power-play rotation and formation from last year, that would likely exclude right-handed shots like Joel Ward, Jannik Hansen, and Joonas Donskoi. The only other real option of the same handedness would be Mikkel Boedker, so I suppose it’s possible that there are some split duties there, but my bet is on Hertl to get the majority of the looks. With Marleau gone, not only should Hertl – if healthy – be locked into a top-six five-on-five role, I think he’ll get a good shot at sticking on the top power-play unit as well. This type of lineup slotting would make Hertl a very solid late-round pick in upcoming fantasy drafts.

 

Dallas

There is some turnover among the Stars forward group with guys like Patrick Sharp and Cody Eakin gone, but most of the players who have long been on the top forward PP group are still there: Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and Jason Spezza. It seems a foregone conclusion that Alex Radulov will join them as well.

In that sense, there isn’t some mystery or potential timeshare that should be going on like Hertl and Boedker in San Jose. Rather this speaks to the upside that Radulov has this year.

With Montreal, the 31-year old Russian managed 16 power-play points. Not a poor total, but certainly not what he’s capable of when placed in an optimal situation. I mean, Spezza managed 19 last year in just 68 games and that was with all the injuries that forced players to miss games or play through pain. Both Benn and Seguin managed over 25 power-play points.

This section, then is more about the upside of Radulov. He isn’t a volume shooter but on that line and on that power play, 20 goals should be very doable. He is more known for his possession and playmaking abilities, which means 40 assists should easily be obtained, and pushing over 50 well within reach.

Radulov had a very productive year last year and did so on a team that should be much less productive than Dallas will be this year. His peripherals may not be stout, but I do think 70 points is well within reach should he stay in those prime situations that have opened up in Dallas. 

One Comment

  1. Mathieu 2017-09-02 at 12:29

    As a Kuznetsov owner, I would love to see him promoted to that 1st PP unit. However, Johansson’s role on that unit was to be the net front presence, and that doesn’t fit Kuznetsov’s playing style. He’s a distributor, and Backstrom plays that part on the 1st PP. Unless the Caps rethink everyone’s deployment or Kuznetsov has it in him to stand in the shooting lane, screening the goalie with his rather thin frame, I think he remains on the 2nd unit.

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