Goalies on the move and why I might not like them as much as you do…

If you followed the free agent frenzy of July 1 on Twitter, you would have seen the announcement of a signing followed by a hockey person stating something to the effect of “Great signing. Exactly what they needed.”

For fantasy purposes, we evaluate things differently. We’ve developed a perception of Player X from both watching the games and our fantasy lineups. So what happens to our perception of that player once they join a new team?

Given the title above in today’s Ramblings, I’ll try not to be a total Debbie Downer when it comes to these goalies. But I guess I wasn’t quite as sold on some of these goalies as others were. I’m not saying that I won’t draft any of them, so I guess you could take this as a reality check in case you were sky high on any of them.

Scott Darling

Don’t get me wrong. I think Darling is clearly the best of this bunch, which is why I didn’t include him in the poll below. But I’ve heard rumblings that Darling will be a top-10 goalie by the end of the season and should be drafted as such. In that case, I can’t fathom ranking Darling ahead of more established safer bets such as Jonathan Quick, Ben Bishop, Martin Jones, or Tuukka Rask. I will say that I admire when someone takes a stand and believes that Darling will reach that top 10, as it makes for great discussion.

Darling’s career numbers as the Blackhawks’ backup are solid (2.37 GAA, .923 SV%). His new team is sneaky good at suppressing shots (28.3 SA/GP, 5^th-best total in 2016-17). But as we do with every newly appointed starter, we need to bring up the fact that Darling has never played more than 32 games. How many games will the Hurricanes win? And with Cam Ward still in the mix, how many games will Darling actually start?

For the record, I’m not that concerned about the questions that I’ve listed. But in a 12-team league, you should be drafting Darling as a potential second goalie rather than a first.
 

Which of these goalies are you most likely to target in fantasy drafts?

— Ian Gooding (@Ian_Gooding) July 19, 2017

Antti Raanta

Judging by the poll results, I didn’t think you folks would like Raanta as much as you did. Like Darling, Raanta has been elevated to a starting position thanks to great work as a backup. Raanta has posted a 2.17 goals-against average and a .924 save percentage over the last three seasons, including a 9^th-ranked 2.26 goals-against average and an 11^th-ranked .922 save percentage last season among goalies who played at least 25 games.

The Coyotes’ defense might be a different kettle of fish than the Rangers’ defense, though. The Rangers were middle of the pack with 30.1 shots allowed per game, but the Coyotes were second-worst with 34.1 shots allowed per game last season. If Raanta maintains a .920 save percentage, his goals-against average would finish somewhere around 2.60 with those extra four shots allowed. Not terrible, and the acquisition of Niklas Hjalmarsson could help further with that. But we haven’t grown accustomed to the Coyotes being strong defensively these last few years.

Need another reason not to like Raanta? The next goalie’s fantasy value is believed to have increased because he is now out of Arizona.

Mike Smith

With Smith, the belief is that his numbers will turn around now that he has the stout defense of the Flames in front of him. After all, he posted a 1.50 goals-against average and a .932 save percentage in eight games for gold-medal winning Team Canada at the 2015 World Hockey Championship. There’s lots to like with this situation, which is why many of you voted for Smith.

But really, how much do you trust Mike Smith? For goalies that have played at least 75 games over the past three seasons (46 in all), Smith’s 2.96 goals-against average is the highest. Okay, so that’s partially the team in front of him. In the same group of goalies, Smith is 37^th with a .911 save percentage. To compare, the likes of Semyon Varlamov and Ondrej Pavelec have a better save percentage over that span.

Despite that deep defense, I just can’t shake the feeling that Calgary has turned into a true goalie graveyard the last few seasons. Jonas Hiller, Karri Ramo, Joni Ortio, Chad Johnson, and the next goalie listed. Don’t get me wrong: Smith’s value improves with the trade. But I’m not drafting him any higher than a third goalie in a 12-team league.

Brian Elliott

What… where’s the love for Elliott? During his five-year term with the Blues, Elliott never posted a goals-against average higher than 2.28, and he posted a save percentage higher than .920 three of his five seasons. The stint in Calgary was a bit forgettable, but the expectations of being the guy didn’t work for him. Elliott never played more than 46 games over his five years for the Blues, yet he was forecast to start a lot more than that for the Flames.

But as he departs from one goalie graveyard, he arrives at another. When was the last time the Flyers’ goaltending looked alright? The Flyers have an up-and-coming defense, which should help. If Elliott plays the 35-45 games that seems to work for him, he should be fine ratios-wise. But his win total will be limited. Even on a St. Louis team that is strong during the regular season, Elliott has never once reached 30 wins in his career. But… I’m going to go contrarian on the poll question results and state that Elliott will be better than you think.

Steve Mason

Having owned Mason for the past two and a half seasons, he’s either been an integral part of my team or glued to my bench. No middle ground. When he’s on, he’s on, particularly if your league awards points for saves. But then he goes through spurts when he allows a minimum of three goals per game.

Don’t get me wrong: I think Mason has some value. I recently turned down an offer of Daniel Sedin for Mason, as Sedin basically has negative value with his current salary in this auction-style keeper league. But with the ups and downs that Mason has, we could see Connor Hellebuyck more than you initially assumed when the Jets announced the Mason signing. Also don’t forget that the Jets also still have Michael Hutchinson, turning this into a potential three-headed monster.

Whether it be Hellebuyck, Hutchinson, or Ondrej Pavelec, the Jets’ goaltending was brutal last season. The team’s 3.11 goals-against average was 27^th in the NHL last season. So I wouldn’t be surprised if Paul Maurice just goes with whatever works here.

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All in all, maybe we can conclude that these teams were in the market for goalies because they simply didn’t have good goaltending last season. The teams with good goaltending aren’t trying to fix their goaltending situations that aren’t broke.

Having said that, there’s no doubt that at least one of these goalies will exceed expectations next season, at least early on. The trick will be to find the right one.

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