Game 6s … the more the merrier, don't underestimate Matthew Tkachuk and can the Coyotes help your fantasy teams next year?

 

***

 

The Capitals have let Philadelphia back into their first-round series because the offense has dried up. Washington has scored a single goal through the past two games, and now the series lead is cut in half.

The Flyers are playing with nothing to lose, and Michal Neuvirth and the skaters in front of him are gaining confidence by the minute.

Still, Washington takes this series, and if they don't, chalk it up to underdogs don't always lose.  

However, the larger issue is Washington can be limited offensively, and if we've learned one thing so far in these playoffs, it is you have to be able to win 2-1 and 4-3.

Can Washington win a back-and-forth shootout?

All season long, I've watched them play great hockey, but I've never left a viewing feeling blown away. And currently, there is no secondary scoring.

With that said, the jig is up with Evgeny Kuznetsov, Justin Williams and Andre Burakovsky. The trio has dominated the play in terms of possession, but the offensive results haven't been there. A breakout game looms, and in daily contests, Williams and Burakovsky are excellent sources of cap relief.

Pittsburgh-Washington is going to fun.

 

***

 

For fantasy purposes, we shouldn't overvalue Neuvirth. He has been excellent in spurts as a solid complimentary starter, but he shouldn't be viewed as anything more than a middling No. 3 goalie option for your virtual team.

First, he isn't going to grab the lion's share of starts without an injury, and secondly, he hasn't proven capable of handling a full-time gig.

Steve Mason isn't going to be relegated to anything less than a 50-50 timeshare.

 

***

 

Florida-New York was a rollercoaster, but aside from Nick Bjugstad sustaining an injury after being demoted to the third line, there was limited fantasy news.

Vincent Trocheck logged the third most ice time for Florida in his return, but registered just one shot. He looked up to speed from my channel-surfing viewing.

Thomas Greiss checked out with 47 saves, and Marek Zidlicky has relevance because of his power-play acumen and willingness to shoot the puck. Zidlicky only registered one shot on net, but he did pick up a point. He also played the fewest minutes of the six Islanders defensemen.

 

***

 

After reading Mike talk about Shayne Gostisbehere in the ramblings this week, it tipped me off to a reality about defensemen that we have to keep in mind for our fantasy pursuits.

Many youngsters enter the league with raw offensive skill and frequent the scoresheet, but during their maturation into two-way defensemen, they lose the offensive juice.

Three youngsters who've been brought up recently in the ramblings have really stood out: Stephen Johns, Michael Matheson and Brady Skjei.

What is most encouraging is the significant roles they're playing. Skjei has been paired with Rayn McDonagh, Matheson was out with less than two minutes left in regulation during Game 5, and Johns is close to playing top-four minutes.

A lot of things need to break the right way before any of the three are viable fantasy options in the majority of seasonal leagues next season. But they're all players to watch, and they each could easily hold fleeting value during the season.

Think Mathew Dumba or Zach Bogosian down the stretch, or what about Michael Del Zotto out of nowhere in 2014-15.

 

***

 

After Florida-New York and Philadelphia-Washington punched their Game 6 tickets Friday, and Chicago-St. Louis is already set, here is a fitting breakdown of what's ahead this weekend:

"It goes without saying that a Game 6 is always crucial. A Game 6 means that one team is guaranteed to be looking to close out the series and move on to the next round. It also means that one team will be facing elimination, just one loss away from seeing everything they’ve worked for all season long end with the crushing disappointment of elimination."

Sean McIndoe's Game 6 Overtime Twilight Zone take was a nice trip down memory lane, and worth the read. Strap in for an exciting finish to Round 1, folks.

 

***

 

The Arizona Coyotes will be an interesting club to track this summer.

As it stands, the desert dogs have Antoine Vermette, Martin Hanzal, Brad Richardson, Anthony Duclair, Max Domi and Joe Vitale under contract up front with Jordan Martinook and Laurent Dauphin also in the mix. Tobias Rieder is a restricted free agent, so he projects to also return.

Add Dylan Strome and their first-round pick to the mix, and there is the beginning of an potentially underrated group of forwards, especially if Shane Doan re-ups.  

In recent years, we've seen Colorado and Calgary take a big jump forward with an infusion of youth and yield plenty of fantasy options.

Domi could easily take a jump forward from his 18 goals and 34 helpers from this season, especially since he finished with 17 points, 47 penalty minutes and 55 shots on net through his final 26 games of the season. His 1.72 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five has room for growth, too.

With a 1.97 points/60, Duclair paced the team and capped off his year with four goals, seven assists and 25 shots over his final 19 games with a plus-8 rating and 21 penalty minutes. He totalled out at 20 goals and 24 helpers, and his plus-12 rating and 49 penalty minutes are hardly non-factors, especially the plus/minus rating with a lottery team.

With a veteran presence — Hanzal and Vermette — up the middle, there is potential for the young talent to be utilized in plus-matchups against the opponent's weaker player. We all love kid lines, right?

It will be interesting to see if the Coyotes bring in another top-six forward because it could be an admirable forward corps.

 

Domi – Hanzal – Duclair

FA – Strome – first-rounder

Rieder – Vermette – Doan

Martinook – Richardson – Vitale

 

Obviously, we're not talking about a Stanley Cup contender here, but things could be trending in the right direction offensively for the Coyotes.

On the blue line, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Zbynek Michalek are the only two defensemen under contract for the 2016-17 season. Michael Stone, Connor Murphy, Jarred Tinordi, Kevin Connauton, Klas Dahlbeck and Philip Samuelsson are all RFAs, so there are plenty of decisions ahead there.

And perhaps, the free-agent budget is best suited addressing a shiny new rearguard, or locking up Stone and Murphy. Or the maybe the first-round pick is a defenseman.

Nonetheless, there could be more fantasy value here, and with the negative perception typically accompanying the Coyotes, there is profit potential in the middle and late rounds of drafts.

 

***

 

More Pavel Datsyuk:

"He did all of that while being a regular on the penalty kill and going up against the other team's best players. Since the start of the 2007 season his most common opponents in terms of ice time is pretty much a list of the best players in the Western Conference (where the Red Wings played during most of his career): Jonthan Toews, Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton, Patrick Kane, Anze Kopitar, Daniel Sedin, Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Marian Hossa. He consistently got the better of all of them."

This was another enjoyable read on Datsyuk from Adam Gretz.

 

***

 

Here is a Matthew Tkachuk breakdown from Pension Plan Puppets' Scott Wheeler.

Tkachuk ranks sixth in the ISS Top 30 rankings, first in the NHL Central Scouting's 2016 North American midterm rankings and fourth in Bob McKenzie's midseason rankings.

Here is a video breakdown from Craig Button, too.

Also, make sure to check out the Dobber Prospects profile. And, there is a blurb on Tkachuk in the Prospect Ramblings from Thursday.

There is a lot of talent here, and while Auston Matthews is widely viewed as top priority, how many times has a draft unfolded with the 10 best players being picked successively one through 10?

Additionally, looking at Chicago and Los Angeles as the prototypes of the modern rebuild, it wasn't a collection of No. 1 selections. Tkachuk is going to help fantasy owners and his real-world team tremendously, and a stat line resembling 2010-11 Milan Lucic or 2015-16 Wayne Simmonds seems well within reach. Or, sticking with Button's assessment, Scott Hartnell has nine 20-goal, 90-penalty minutes seasons on his resume.

Matthews, Patrik Laine and Jesse Puljujarvi are the big three, but don't fret if you or your favorite team lands the No. 4 selection, Tkachuk is going to be an extremely valuable commodity in the real and fake game. Potentially, he could be even more valuable in the fake, too.

 

***

 

Florida-New York was a rollercoaster, but aside from Nick Bjugstad sustaining an injury after being demoted to the third line, there was limited fantasy news.

Vincent Trocheck logged the third most ice time for Florida in his return, but registered just one shot. He looked up to speed from my channel-surfing viewing.

Thomas Greiss checked out with 47 saves, and Marek Zidlicky has relevance because of his power-play acumen and willingness to shoot the puck. Zidlicky only registered one shot on net, but he did pick up a point. He also played the fewest minutes of the six Islanders defensemen.

 

***

 

We've got another Game 6, as Mikko Koivu scored the game-tying and game-winning goals for the Wild.

The real story, as it's been for most of the season, was in the Dallas crease. Antti Niemi turned away just 19 of 24 shots. His counterpart Devan Dubnyk saved 37 of 41 shots.

And per usual, all five Minnesota goals were on high-danger chances at even strength. This has been the downfall of Dallas all season long, and perhaps the goalie shuffle will help in Game 6, but the goalie shuffle is much more effective behind a capable defense. Having two good goalies helps, too.

There is a buy-low window here for Dallas in all fantasy formats. It would be incredibly surprising to see the Wild win this series. The Stars owned the possession with 93 shot attempts to 47 in Game 6. And as long as Dallas continues to drive the play, they'll advance.

The overarching concern is Tyler Seguin's health and whether Dallas can contain an equally talented offense. St. Louis or Chicago is on tap, and the Stars will struggle to own the play in a similar fashion against those two.

We can chalk this win up to Dallas facing a hot goalie and a desperate team, but that ignores the pattern of defeats the Stars have been susceptible to all season.

 

***

 

Looking ahead, at some point, Minnesota has to hand the reins of the offense to Charlie Coyle, Nino Niederreiter and Mikael Granlund. These are talented players who have been sheltered slightly behind veterans, but those veterans are on the wrong end of their prime years.

For example, Niederreiter only played 16:44 of ice time Friday. He has consecutive 20-goal seasons, posted a 54.4 CorsiFor percentage this season and was second of the Wild in points per 60 minutes at five-on-five with a 1.92 mark.

How Minnesota decides to deploy these three players next season could provide a boost as they enter their offensive primes. However, it would be pretty surprising to see Koivu and Parise take a backseat in 2016-17.

Before moving on, expect Erik Haula to be a popular breakout subject next season because of the great narrative. He scored 21 points — nine goals — through a 23-game stretch with a plus-14 rating and 53 shots on net toward the end of the season.

However, with Koivu, Granlund/Coyle ahead of Haula on the depth chart, the 25-year-old Finn likely just had his best offensive season. Haula's 1.97 points/60 was the best mark on the Wild this season, and repeating that pace would be extremely surprising.

It is a reminder to beware of narrative street without looking at the bigger picture and team dynamic.

Anders Lee and Kevin Hayes are prime examples of players who punched me in the face this season.

 

***

 

Jonathan Quick entered Game 5 with an underwhelming .902 save percentage, 2.64 goals-against average and just four wins through 14 outings dating back to the regular season.

He left Game 5 with four wins, a .896 save percentage and a 2.81 goals-against average through 15 starts to finish the season.

Many will point to the fifth Sharks goal as soft, but in fairness to Joe Pavelski, it was a goal-scorer's goal. Quick has to respect Pavelski's shot and speed, and Pavelski got the goalie moving to open up the five-hole.

Should Quick have made the save, yes, but it was a solid move from Pavelski, too.

Additionally, before Quick is dragged over the coals, after Drew Doughty and Jake Muzzin, Luke Schenn played the third most minutes among Los Angeles defensemen.

After Schenn, it was a who's who of Brayden McNabb, Rob Scuderi and Jamie McBain.

Here is another head scratcher for you. In Game 5, Dwight King played more than all Los Angeles forwards not named Anze Kopitar.

 

***

 

San Jose will be in tough against Anaheim/Nashville, but the Sharks are deeper than ever, and Martin Jones is good enough to backstop a deep run.

Plus, watching Brent Burns is a lot of fun.

We'll save the 2016-17 look ahead for another day, and for Round 2, San Jose has at least a 50-50 shot at advancing to Round 3 because of their skater depth.

Also, don't forget, the Sharks are healthy.

 

***

 

So, back to the Kings …

It would be surprising to see Milan Lucic back, wouldn't it?

There isn't much cap space, and a deal would require Lucic signing a hometown discount. Plus, a savvy front office isn't going to open the vault for an aging supporting piece, especially when Lucic will likely push for top-line money.

There are a lot of intangibles to like about what Lucic brings, wherever you stand on plus/minus and CrosiFor% is up to you, but Lucic did post a plus-29 rating and a 59.0 percent mark in the two categories, respectively.

Expect him to land elsewhere, and the current statistical decline will continue. Re-upping in Los Angeles would be cap suicide, and as highlight above, the Kings have a few more pressing issues.

For fantasy purposes, Lucic projects to be overvalued because of his cross-category contributions and name worth. However, in rotisserie leagues, he'll remain a solid target in the middle rounds, if he lasts until then.

 

***

 

Tyler Toffoli posted a 1.12 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five this season, which was good for 16th in the league among skaters with at least 500 minutes of ice time. His 2.02 points/60 at five-on-five ranked 44th among the same skater group.

Toffoli scored 31 goals on 213 shots and posted a plus-35 rating, which paced the league. He also had nine power-play goals and two power-play assists. However, his power-play time needs a boost to take another step forward.

Toffoli averaged just 1:33 minutes of power-play time during the playoffs and 2:06 for the season. As Mike highlighted earlier this week, power-play production is critical to approaching the 65- and 70-point marks, and Toffoli stands to benefit from added PP time.

He'll enter his age-24 season next fall, and he should be promoted to a top-line role with a permanent spot on the No. 1 power-play unit and let loose offensively. This is a high-end offensive talent who pasted together a 21-game stretch with 11 goals and 20 points early in the season, an eight-game stretch with seven goals and 10 points in December, and he finished the season with four goals and five assists through the final nine games.

Eliminating a few of the slumps in between would go a long way to Toffoli flirting with a top-20 finish in points, and there is upside for more, if he is handed the right role. And, the power-play time will also help. 

 

***

 

Enjoy the weekend action, folks, and thanks for stoping by.