Ramblings: I now have Cam Atkinson on every team
Dobber
2016-12-26
Ramblings: I now have Cam Atkinson on every team
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Food for thought:
2016-17 One year after posting a 0.65 points-per-game average, a 27-year-old winger who stands at 5-8 is having a breakout season under John Tortorella.
2002-03 One year after posting a 0.66 points-per-game average, a 27-year-old winger who stands at 5-8 is having a breakout season under John Tortorella.
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Oh boy. My little man crush on ‘Dobber Darling’ Cam Atkinson has gotten out of control. I now own him in all three of my keeper leagues and I overpaid to acquire him in two of them last week. For the record, the above little tidbit is something that I dug up after I acquired him.
First, the background.
I drafted him in 2012 in two of my leagues. I knew that he would be at least a four-year wait and likely a five-year wait…but of course I was hoping for something faster. But that never seems to happen. Especially with late-round picks who are diminutive in stature. He had dominated the college ranks his last two years with Boston College and his impact in the AHL was immediate (32 goals in his first 56 AHL games). His debut in the NHL was also impressive. So I took him. In two leagues. The following year he had played half a season in the NHL (18 points in 35 games) and I drafted him in the third league – the one where you keep 12 players (the other two are full keepers).
That year (2013), I traded him in one of my leagues as part of a larger effort to land a defenseman. I also wanted to reduce my risk a little. In 2014 I drafted him in my Keep 12 league again, so I was back to owning him in two leagues. That year he got 40 points for the second time – no improvement at all. So he wasn’t one of my 12 keepers and in 2015 I was unable to re-draft him as someone else took him. They kept him after his 53-point season. And so we come to this season. All that time drafting him, sitting on him, pumping him up…and when he finally busts loose he does so above even my expectations. But I didn’t own him in two of my leagues.
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Next, Trade 1.
I don’t recommend doing this, as this is quite a big ‘no-no’. Playing with your heart. But if Atkinson is the player he’s showing himself to be, then he’ll help me win. If I’m wrong, then I lose. Is that really making decisions from the heart over the head?
Last week I outlined my huge deal involving Ovechkin and how it landed me a million draft picks. I started to use that in my Keep 12 league to get Atkinson. But the guy who owned him really liked him (and who wouldn’t, right now?). I inundated him with offers, probably annoyed him. In the end, he countered Fabbri, Suter, a 2nd, a 3rd, and two 4ths (13-round draft). I re-countered with the 3rd removed. He went for it and Atkinson was mine. I overpaid, but I upgraded that forward spot from Fabbri to Atkinson (and got some games in hand with that deal, too). In exchange for a downgrade of Suter to my bench defenseman – Michael Matheson. And then I claimed Kevin Klein off waivers for my bench (hits count as 0.1 points, which makes Klein a little better). The draft picks – I’m flush with them. When I did the deal with Ovechkin part of my thinking was to use the picks to get Atkinson. Done.
I overpaid. But I think I helped my team. Assuming Atkinson is at least 80% of the player we’ve seen this year to date. I need something drastic to climb back into this league. Done.
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Next, Trade 2.
The groundwork on this had been laid over the last two weeks and finally everything was resolved Friday over the phone. He wanted my John Tavares – whom I thought I wouldn’t trade until he’s into his 30s. But to get what you want, you have to give. So I would need some security if I’m giving up JT. The two players on his team that could do this were Nik Ehlers and Evgeny Kuznetsov. And since I’m in first place (and points carry over), I could use Ehlers’ points. But…Atkinson and Ehlers is too much to give for Tavares in this kind of league. So we just kept adding pieces until the two sides balanced out. Deal ended up being…
I give: Tavares, Wheeler, Nyquist, Orlov, Debrincat, 1st, future 2nd (four rounds of drafting, this is a full keeper)
I get: Ehlers, Atkinson, Silfverberg, Schultz, Bonino, 4th, future 4th
I overpaid again. But the deal gained me 20 points, upgraded my defenseman, got me my guy, and I have the ‘trade value’ security of Ehlers. What I mean by ‘trade value’ security is – if Ehlers were to break his leg tomorrow, I would still find no shortage of suitors. I could trade him easily. Whereas if that were to happen to Atkinson, then I would have a lot more trouble trading him for his value. Also, this pool counts the postseason. So I added two more Penguins, the Jackets will get in, and I now have Silf to match up with my Kesler.
As for the picks – I’m finding more and more often that my late first rounders and second rounders aren’t all that great. Once we get out of the Top 10, the ‘slam dunk’ draft picks are gone. I’m also finding that my picks in the third and fourth round have been tremendous lately.
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Anyway, I hope I helped you kill some more time as you wait for your family to get ready. We’ll be back with regular content on Tuesday. Stay safe!
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Wait! You didn’t complete the story!
Who was 2002-03’s Cam Atkinson?
I believe this was referenced in earlier ramblings by other authors, maybe why Dobber didn’t mention it, but Marty St. Louis.
That’s why they call it “Fantasy” !!!!
Just a test! Can you guess?
I had the same little note in the Top 25 column from earlier
Looks like i fueled the fire for a CAM rant.
Dobber, I have to say the wheat fire the CBJ are and Cameron Atkinson next 30 pts in 45 games will make you regret your trades amd your man crush. I know you won 3 championships in a row, but boy o boy sometimes theses glasses….
I told you so about Duclair and now Atkinson, see you on the golf court
I told you about Duclair. You must have passed that message onto another writer. I projected a decline for Duclair in the Fantasy Guide in the summer.
With Atkinson I’m definitely wearing the glasses though. Part of it is back in 2002-03 I ‘sold high’ on a 5-9 player who was going at an unsustainable pace under his new coach Torts. I came to regret that move (St. Louis). What I’m doing is putting faith in myself. I’ve believed in Cam and now I’m seeing that belief through and going all in. Time will tell if heart overclouded my judgement. Either way, barring something drastic, even if Cam slows I should still win two of my three leagues this year. Can’t really argue with trophies…
Well I tought you ctually believe in Duclair. For the 2 trophies your about to win, congrats, if there is an expansion, count me in.
Thank you Dobbs enjoy the Holidays
Interesting that you post about how you went out and acquired Cam in two leagues while there was an earlier post discussing potential sell-high players and Atkinson was listed #8 as a solid sell-high due to his unlikely pace and potential regression. Not only acquired but over-paid for him (granted, you’re better off this season).
There’s no doubt that there is a lot to love about Cam this season and CBJ’s power play and team performance. But for keeper leagues that are not full keepers (mine, for ex. is keep 6) Cam wasn’t going to beat out my other keepers already so I went ahead and flipped him (plus Backstrom) for an upgrade in defense and secondary stats (Byfulgien and Marchand). Byf becomes a keeper for me next year but I also have Crosby/Kessel/Letang/Wheeler so I’m in win now mode and going for it again. Backs is an assists and PPP machine but not much else for this league (G,A,PPP,PIM,SOG,GWG,Hit,Blk – equal scoring).
Do you think that’s a solid plan? Cam probably would’ve provided plenty this season but I used a strength to trade for help in other areas. But believe me, it was hard moving a guy who has been on fire and on pace for 80+, especially after targeting him this draft based on the dobber guide and his potential this season. He’s an exciting player.
I didn’t write that top 10 article, though Tom is probably right. Cam’s pace is so crazy high that the smart and safe play would be to move him. My heart definitely played a role in my decision.
In your league settings with SOG included – Atkinson is a keeper over Wheeler though. I wonder if you could have closed the deal with Backstrom/Wheeler instead?
Fair point. Oh well, we’ll see how it goes. I would’ve preferred to move Wheeler over Cam, I should’ve tried that. Didn’t think it’d be enough to get Byf from this guy (I had been chasing him for a while). Byf is a top 20 guy in this league but I recognize he may only have a few years left at this leve. How do you see him profile in long-run?
I would never play in a League that allows these kind of trades (4-5 players each + Draft picks ), especially if there a no limits on trades per team !!! NOT REALISTIC !!!! But… I guess that’s why they call it “FANTASY” … just ridiculous to me.
You can’t do 10 player deals in your leagues? They’re a lot of fun. That one was in a 15 team, 39-player roster keeper league with 4 rounds of drafting. Trades are unlimited until January 31, then we have just three trades until the deadline. Owners don’t really take advantage of unlimited trading, so this deal is way out of character. Generally speaking you’ll see about 3-4 small trades in the entire league until our Jan.31 deadline (maybe 2 more at that deadline) and then the contending teams ‘may’ use up their 3 trades before the NHL trade deadline. Deals are not very common at all at this time of year. Owners are all top-notch, careful and smart people. 15 years in this league and I’ve only won one regular season trophy and one playoff trophy. And I run the league!
The last time a trade this big went down was at a trade deadline. So yeah, I think it’s fairly realistic. Trading is as rare as in the NHL!
To me.. that just takes all the fun out of researching for your draft and the draft itself !! I just think things are better and more fun if you build your team gradually through drafting/ FA/ and waiver wire pick ups…with a couple of trades allowed per year. Maybe your league doesn’t have that many trades but I’m sure there are a lot of leagues out there where there are many trades made ( those are the leagues I wouldn’t join). It’s just more enjoyable to build a team that way… at least to me!
I think you are probably in the minority. In many years and many leagues of fantasy GM’ing, I don’t think I have EVER heard someone say that the slow steady method is more fun. It is of course a legit strategy, and we have all encountered “buy and hold” type managers, but I think most people would like to be able to address specific stat deficiencies and make a quick positive impact through trading. I, for one, dislike marginal, fringe trades and 1-for-1 challenge trades. I prefer trades that have a more significant impact, a restructured team or those geared for either immediate or future results.
I think trades are a big part of the fun in keeper leagues and almost a must for league parity. Without it, teams would keep the elite players every year with other teams having no shot at them. Trades are the best way for stars to get moved around and it’s great having losing teams in a given season trading off talent for future picks or young keepers. The top teams then get too many keepers and players can re-enter the draft the following year (if there’s a limit on keepers).
I think having a nice balance between building through the draft and trades is a great way to go. For example, my league is keep 6 so it’s hard to really build through the draft long-term unless you’re very patient in young talent developing and willing to go through losing years. It’s hard to waste a keeper spot on a young guy who may not be worth it at that point in time (banking on future) over a current top 60 player or so. All depends on league settings.
I think that’s a key point: balanced league rules are key to maintaining parity and fairness. I generally don’t like dynasty leagues (keep forever) because I’ve seen too many where a few teams get stacked and never have to give up elite players. The few owners stuck at the bottom get frustrated trying to build over time without a legitimate shot at a title. They often quit and new owners get recruited into these situations (lots of these in the Dobber classifieds). I go for leagues that limit how long elite players can be held, either by contract, escalating salaries, or some other means. My money league has those, plus a unique “parity draft” at the end of the season. The top 4 teams win money, and each of the bottom 8 teams get to pick one unprotected player from the top 4. The 4th place team can protect 6, 3rd 5, etc. This is a key strategy point if you are in the top 4 – how to stay in the money but not lose too much in the parity draft.
Can you say ” instant gratification “…that’s the world we live in now!!!
It’s hardly “instant gratification” to build a team in 1-2 years instead of 3 or more. I do understand your point, and Dobber is on it when he says you have to have like-minded active owners.
I agree 100%
I see your point there. This league type only works if every owner is competent, no exceptions. A weak link or an inactive owner destroys the balance.
We do have one FA signing (over the age of 24) per season, and those FA ‘contracts’ are also tradeable (but only for that season, can’t trade future ones). Drafting is awesome and challenging – last draft I made nine picks:
1st – C.White
2nd – A. Lehkonen
3rd – L. Brossoit, C. Sheary
4th – E. Haula, J. Walman, D. Heinen, A. Debrincat,
5th (bonus round because we expanded by one team) – J. Guentzel
PS my FA signing this year I already used – I jumped the gun on Panik too soon. I acquired a second FA signing and used it on Dzingel which I’m happy with.
I don’t know what the scoring system is like in either of your pools but think you got absolutely fleeced in both of your deals for Atkinson. This is coming from a guy who likes and owns him in both his keeper leagues as well. a lesson I learned years ago…trade with your brain not your heart.