Recapping playoff action, Jason Zucker's injury, Boone Jenner's production, Brett Ritchie's upside.

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Washington-Pittsburgh

The Penguins hung on for a 3-2 win on Wednesday night, extending their series lead to 3-1. Game Five is Saturday back in Washington.

Let us be clear here: Fleury won this game for the Pens. Washington largely outplayed Pittsburgh, particularly in the first 40 minutes. Of course, Nick Bonino drawing this phantom high-stick on TJ Oshie with less than two minutes remaining in the third period helped a bit:

TJ Oshie's stick hit Nick Bonino in the shoulder pic.twitter.com/wLrejn1NNl

— Ian Oland (@ianoland) May 4, 2017

That will probably be a fine from the league.

For as much grief that Marc-André Fleury has received over the years, and rightfully so at times, it’s kind of nice to see him performing so well these playoffs. Going into Game Four, he had a .933 save percentage, and was the reason the team escaped the first period with a 1-0 lead. He had a stretch save on a semi-fanned rebound shot by Tom Wilson, and another on Evgeny Kuznetsov late in the period. Maybe he won’t be elite wherever he lands next year, but he does have a .917 save percentage over the last four regular seasons. That can play in fantasy hockey as long as the team in front of him isn’t abysmal defensively. 

Regardless, Pittsburgh needs one win in the next three games to move to the Eastern Conference Final. With the injuries this team has had to endure, it’s nothing short of a miracle. I guess all they needed was a little… Flower power.

There was also this:

Fleury taped over Niskanen's name on his mask. pic.twitter.com/qmU5SImOIV

— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) May 4, 2017

Anaheim-Edmonton

The Oilers tied the game at three very late in the third period to force an overtime, but the Ducks scored within the first minute of the extra frame to even this series at two games each. Game Five is on Friday night back in Anaheim. 

Edmonton jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the first period, but the Ducks scored two in the second to give us a new game. One was on a goal that was apparently goaltender interference (but was reviewed and confirmed as a goal for some reason), and the other looked like it may have been offside but Edmonton couldn’t challenge. Hockey!

This was the non-goaltender interference which, I mean…

How is Talbot supposed to use the blocker here? pic.twitter.com/UL9JdEOdk2

— Pete Blackburn (@PeteBlackburn) May 4, 2017

At times these playoffs, Connor McDavid hasn’t looked like the Connor McDavid we’ve come to expect. Postseason hockey is tighter, fewer penalties, and all that. This game, however, especially in the first period, was a McDavid game. He was entering the zone at will, creating offensive chance after offensive chance, and scored the second goal.

On the flipside, the second period belonged to Ryan Getzlaf. He was easily Anaheim’s most impactful player, as he has been most of the postseason. He scored two of their goals, and assisted on the other two. In general, he was the most impressive player of the game, four points aside, leading all players in ice time. 

Back to McDavid real quick: he's the slam-dunk number-1 pick in standard fantasy drafts next year, right?

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This came across my timeline during the Penguins game, taken, I assume, from what appeared during the broadcast:

Richard. Gretzky. Lemieux. Guentzel. That's the list of players with eight or more goals in their first nine playoff games.

📢 advertisement:

— Nick Cotsonika (@cotsonika) May 4, 2017

Guentzel should be assured of a top-six roster spot next season. I do wonder if he gets some top power-play minutes, though? Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Hornqvist. Maybe Patric Hornqvist is moved off at times? What do you think? Let us know in the comments.

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A thought occurred to me watching Game Four between Nashville and St. Louis on Tuesday night: there are going to be a few (read: several) “Finding the Next Viktor Arvidsson” articles this summer, from fantasy writers or otherwise. In short, which player without a significant NHL track record will break out to be a significant fantasy producer. This is the same exercise we did a couple years ago after Mike Hoffman scored 27 goals.

There are two factors that are usually necessary for this type of breakout:

1.A significant jump in ice time. Over the last two seasons, there have been 168 forwards to play at least 75 games in either campaign, and manage under 1300 total minutes of ice time. Of those 168 forwards, 10 broke the 50-point mark, six broke the 60-point mark, and no one reached 65 points. Conversely, there were 142 forwards to play 75 games in either season, and played at least 1400 minutes. Of those 142 forwards, 110 of them broke 50 points, 60 players broke 60 points, and 26 forwards broke 70. It doesn’t need much explaining, but it just shows how crucial ice time is to production, and upside, in fantasy.

2.A volume shooter. In the 2015-16 season, Arvidsson led all Nashville forwards in shots per minute, and shot attempts per minute. Of the 19 forwards to score at least 20 five-on-five goals this past year, 13 of them managed at least eight shots per 60 minutes. For reference, the median in shots per 60 minutes was just over 7.00.

If we want to look for a player who can break out in the season ahead, he needs to be able to satisfy both conditions. We’ll start with the second one first:

Well, well, well.

Before continuing, it’s worth noting there are a couple other players that could fit in this category that are a bit further down the list in Artturi Lehkonen and Ryan Hartman. We’ll save those two for a rainy day.

Ritchie shooting that much is nothing out of the ordinary, really. He had 39 NHL games before a full season last year, and managed 10.21 shots per 60 minutes at five-on-five, and 18.76 shot attempts, both leading the Stars. The fact that he’s near the top of the leaderboard for 2016-17 isn’t shocking. This isn’t an aberration.

The big problem for him had been, aside from being young and needing development, was a glut of Dallas forwards. However, with Patrick Eaves traded, and Patrick Sharp, Ales Hemsky, and Jiri Hudler all free agents, there seems to be room for a significant jump in ice time. We will never know until the season starts, but for the first time in a few seasons, at least the opportunity should be there.

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Speaking of players with a high shot volume, let’s talk about Boone Jenner a little bit.

Following a 30-goal, 49-point season, Jenner’s 2016-17 season was an unmitigated offensive disaster, posting just 18 goals and 33 points. Those that play in leagues with hits and blocked shots probably would have been somewhat satisfied with his overall performance, but those hoping for decent offensive numbers certainly were not.

It is worth noting, first and foremost, that after shooting 12.6 percent over his first 185 regular season games, that cratered to 8.5 percent. Just shooting at his career average would have meant about eight more goals, and his season wouldn’t have looked so bad.

Aside from the shot conversion rates, a big issue was the power play. The team ran mostly a one-unit setup with the same five players, and anyone that was not on the top unit struggled for power-play points. It seems hard to fathom but following a season where he had 14 PPP, Jenner had one (1) PPP this past season. Had he managed double-digit PPP, and shot at his career rate, he would have surpassed his 2015-16 season for point production.

It’s a wonder what to do with him next year. If the team sticks with one power-play unit, and he’s not on it, what is his upside? Maybe 45 points? Keep that in mind when looking to draft him come September. His fantasy value is at the mercy of the whims of John Tortorella. Even with a shooting percentage rebound, 25 goals and 45 points is probably the best he can do with similar deployment as this past campaign. Caveat emptor.

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It was reported on Wednesday that Minnesota forward Jason Zucker would be undergoing sports hernia surgery on Thursday. As mentioned in the report, he should be fine for the start of training camp.

There is some uncertainty with regards to Zucker’s future, injury aside. He is coming off his best offensive season, yet could find himself in Las Vegas via the expansion draft. Were he to garner more minutes, particularly on the power play, this is a guy with 60-point upside. He might not get that kind of ice time with the Wild, but with the Golden Knights? Maybe. I am very interested to see what happens, and with whom he could potentially line up with on a new team.

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I implore everyone to read this article about Spokane Chiefs forward Jaret Anderson-Dolan. It revolves around his draft stock dropping because he came from a ‘non-traditional’ family, and just how completely absurd that is. It is antithetical to the entire You Can Play theme that has gained momentum over the las few years, and shows just how far we still have to go, even here in Canada, for everyone to have equal treatment.