Ramblings: Preds Punch Ticket and a grab bag of player outlooks (May 23)
Neil Parker
2017-05-23
There really isn't a lot to say about Game 6 between Nashville and Anaheim. The Ducks suffered a tough-luck loss, and Pekka Rinne made a number of timely saves to hold off the surge.
Jonathan Bernier needed to be better, but the opening goal went off Brandon Montour's skate, the second goal was from a wide-open shooter in the slot, the third goal was whacked at by two Preds on the doorstep, and he was too small to get to the fourth goal.
The Corsi gameflow chart and shot attempts heatmap are telling of the dominant game Anaheim played, as Nashville registered just eight shots through the first two periods.
Still, it's the Predators that are moving on. Considering their injuries, it is difficult to envision Nashville topping Pittsburgh. However, we've definitely seen wilder outcomes in professional sports. Whoops, I just wrote off Ottawa again, didn't I.
The players stepping into bigger roles or entering the lineup for Nashville are skilled and have solid pedigrees. Austin Watson was a first-round pick, Colton Sissons, Pontus Aberg and Miikka Salomaki were all second-round selections. Nashville also has Vladislav Kamenev to turn to if needed.
It's amazing how many of the Predators picks have hit from 2008 through 2014. 13 players are currently making an impact in these playoffs (or have the potential to), and that isn't including Seth Jones. Talk about efficiently and strategically building a franchise. Only Colin Wilson and Jones were top-10 selections, too.
Just a quick parting shot with Anaheim, if John Gibson cannot man the crease for a starter's workload (55 to 65 starts), the Ducks are going to be in trouble moving forward. Their core are aging, and while the defense still looks excellent, that forward corps has significant holes. Jakob Silfverberg and Rickard Rakell are go-to young players, but the Western Conference is a warzone come playoff time, and Anaheim might have just made its last deep postseason run with Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry leading the way.
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Looking at the league leaders in on-ice high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five during the regular season a number of players jumped out to take a peek at.
Josh Leivo
It was surprising to see Leivo on the list because he spent most of his action in the shut-down role alongside Nazem Kadri and Leo Komarov or on the fourth line. Leivo turned in an excellent stretch with 3.1 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five, and he collected three power-play points. His two goals, eight helpers and 27 shots through 13 games are impressive marks, and the winger posted a sterling 55.3 Corsi For percentage. Where Leivo fits going forward is up in the air. But Toronto has the assets to assemble a strong four-line attack, which will probably include Leivo in some capacity.
Jordan Weal
With 58 goals and 186 points through 192 games over the past three seasons in the American Hockey League, it's no surprise that Weal was dangerous last year with Philadelphia. He had eight goals and 12 points through 23 NHL games in 2016-17, but just a single tally with the man advantage. Looking ahead, with Philadelphia's No. 1 power-play unit set in stone, Weal's fantasy upside is capped. However, he's also a potential candidate to be plucked from the Flyers in the expansion draft. Regardless, Weal is probably eyeing a consistent top-six gig in 2017-18 and a breakout campaign is within reach.
Jordan Eberle
I already discussed Eberle here, and my feel is that he could be playing for a new team in 2017-18. It might be difficult to shed the salary, but with just two years remaining on the deal, wilder contracts have been moved. Additionally, who knows what's in store with the backroom wheeling and dealing ahead of the expansion and entry drafts. His career-low 9.6 shooting percentage hurt his goal total, and his poor playoff performance will have his fantasy stock at an all-time low entering next season. Eberle posted a 13.8 shooting percentage over the three season prior to last year, and if he converted at that rate on his 208 shots in 2016-17, he would have scored 28 goals. At just 26, the winger is still in his offensive prime and lines up for a bounce-back campaign.
David Savard
There was a lot to like about Savard's 2016-17 campaign, but seeing him high on this list was a little surprising. His fantasy value is limited because he doesn't receive the power-play time to pad his point total. In fact, the rearguard didn't register a single point with the man advantage and averaged just 14 seconds of power-play time. His 33 even-strength points were a career high, and he also posted an incredible plus-33 rating. Add the decent production in the remaining peripheral stats (135 shots, 126 blocked shots, 44 PIM and 127 hits), and you've got a reliable high-floor asset. If Savard ever climbed into a power-play role again, he'd be even better.
Hampus Lindholm
There was a significant dip in fantasy production from Lindholm this season, as he declined across the board. He's consistently matching up against the opposition's top players and also started a career-high 52.4 percent of his five-on-five shifts in the defensive zone this sseason. Lindholm also consistently plays second fiddle with the man advantage and recorded just five power-play points despite averaging 2:02 of power-play time per game. At some point, Lindholm is probably going to be able to post excellent numbers while still playing his shut-down role. That's likely still a few seasons ahead of the 23-year-old blue liner, though. Lindholm's fantasy value is pretty limited entering 2017-18, and especially because the Ducks have alternative options to play an offensively tilted role.
Darnell Nurse
I recently touched on Nurse here, in regards to his potential uptick in fantasy value with Andrej Sekera set to miss the start of the season. There is a better than zero chance Nurse climbs the depth chart and receives power-play time to begin the season. He's a former seventh overall selection that has all the potential to be a workhorse defenseman. Additionally his ability to generate shots at five-on-five is impressive. Among all defensemen with at least 600 minutes at five-on-five last season, Nurse's 7.25 shots per 60 minutes ranked fourth. He also boasts some cross-category appeal. Nurse should provide a nice return to fill out your virtual blue line, and he might take advantage of an extended role to start the season and never look back.
Mikkel Boedker
Simply put, Boedker was awful in 2016-17. He made the most of oodles of power-play time during his final season in Arizona with 18 points on the man advantage, and then he struggled in a depth role with the Sharks. Boedker averaged just 14:21 of ice time per game, and even with 1:40 of power-play time, he only managed a single assist up a man. His 8.2 shooting percentage likely has some positive regression ahead, and the Sharks are in an interesting contract situation. Currently, Boedker, Joe Pavelski, Joonas Donskoi, Joel Ward and Melker Karlsson, Timo Meier and Kevin Labanc are the only wingers under contract for next season — and Tomas Hertl if you count him. Boedker might receive better minutes and looks next season. He's being paid $4 million to produce so a larger role should help him post better numbers. Albeit, potentially not fantasy relevant ones.
Brandon Saad
For most of last season, Saad was pacing the league in goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five and finished with a 16th-ranked 1.1 goals and 19th-ranked 2.21 points per 60 minutes. However, he scored just three power-play points all season and averaged only 1:39 of ice per game with the man advantage. For awhile, it was difficult to argue with his limited power-play exposure. However, as the season went along, the Blue Jackets struggled with the man advantage. Columbus' power-play percentage was 19.9 for the season but just 10.1 in the second half, and the Jackets scored just 3.2 goals per 60 minutes with the man advantage. Finding a little more power-play time for your top five-on-five scorer probably is something to look at when you're reeling with the man advantage. Until Saad receives more time up a man, his fantasy value is capped – unfortunately.
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Enjoy Game 6 between Ottawa and Pittsburgh, Dobberheads.
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Karl.
Not necessarily the right forum, sorry Neil & Dobber but have never entered the forums. I should have just made time to start writing these articles as discussed in the summer. Easier now that we are in the moment & never cared about the recognition or monies.
Boston.
I should start by saying Boston is my favorite team so there is always a chance of bias although a fantasy hockey pool fan 1st & I don’t draft or wager with my heart but my head, facts & odds of probability based on such. I liked Chiarelli but what Sweeney has accomplished in a short period of time has really laid a great future for Boston & they are well positioned for the expansion draft & could even take on 1 protector at forward & even at D but that would mean having to expose C. Miller which I would be OK with in this scenario.
If Boston did take on 1 of the really good Dman available from at least 1 of the 5 teams with to many protectors pre expansion then they would most likely lose 1 of K. Miller, C. Miller or McQuad. I would be happy being able to retain any 2 of these 3 if Boston adds a Vatanen, Brodin, Savard, Hamonic or Trouba to go with Chara; 1 of these being is his future replacement, Krug, Carlo & McAvoy. & like Arz they could take a forward as well.
Boston is locked into the 7F, 3D & 1G scenario like Anh for similiar reasons as they have more than 4 quality forwards but unlike Anh not enough quality Dman that need protecting to look at the 8 skater option.
Protectors at forward. Bergeron, Marchand, Krejci, Backes, Pastrnak, Spooner & ?; they have room for a protector in their 7.
Protectors at D. Chara, Krug & C. Miller; currently if another Dman isn’t acquired pre expansion draft.
I have 2 trade scenarios I really like for Boston pre expansion, 1 significantly more than the other as it’s easier to make, far cheaper in cost of assets & the player is signed to a very good contract for the next 4 seasons but there are numerous others for any of those Dman mentioned above.
Brodin & Zucker from Minnesota. This is my favorite trade option as no team is in a worse position for the expansion draft than Minnesota. Brodin has 4 years remaining at $4,166,667, he is a perfect replacement for Chara in a few years; I assume Chara will sign for 1, possibly 2 more years after next seasons contract expires. Zucker has 1 year remaining at 2 mil & then is an RFA & would fill the #2 LW spot Boston has had difficulties addressing for several years.
The cost to do so would be extreme as there will be 8 to 12 teams that will be bidding. I offer Minnesota 2 1sts, this years & next years, any prospect Dman not Carlo or McAvoy & following the expansion draft I send them Spooner as well to complete the deal. Minnesota doesn’t have room to protect Spooner pre expansion draft but Boston does, he simply moves after.
I make similiar but slightly different offers to the other teams mentioned above as well with extra Dman but with Trouba’s contract demands, as much as I would love to see him as a Bruin it’s just to expensive for me on numerous fronts. Assets to acquire & cost to resign Trouba. I just message all offers to account for the value of that Dman.
When I get time, I’ll grab these and paste them in the forum. It really is the best community, very active, with a big membership. Thanks Striker!
I have just never made time togo in there & explore nor post. Some what a time issue.
Love ramblings as it concise & mostly targeted to last nights games.
I certainly read several other blogs here but not all. It has to catch my attention in some way as only so many hours to spend on hockey in a given day.
Love the site & the writers as your all crazed hockey pool/fantasy league guys like me who are really into it.
Re: you wrote off the Sens again. “…but like a poor marksman you keep missing the target!” Go Sens Go! (Khaaaan!)