Timo Meier and the Sharks Offer Value in the Week Ahead
Adam Daly-Frey
2018-01-19
All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to bench for the coming week, and a fourth who will struggle to meet expectations for some time. All players discussed are selected based on their upcoming schedule. Stats in this article updated through January 17th
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Jordan Oesterle, D, Chicago Blackhawks (Available in 84 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Had the Blackhawks not been on bye last week, Oesterle was going to be featured here. With the ‘Hawks favourable upcoming schedule, now is the time to grab the ex-Oiler. All the 25-year old d-man has accomplished so far since moving on from Edmonton: averaged 20:52 through his first 20 games (no less than 21:24 in his last five games), grabbed a first-pairing spot alongside Duncan Keith, and took over the PPQB spot on what should be a strong offensive unit. He’s put up 39SOG in those 20 games, with 3G-7A (shooting 7.7% which will regress a touch), and is an excellent mid-season add for the next few weeks.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Timo Meier, LW, San Jose (Available in 96 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Meier is currently sporting the 12th-highest iCF/60 out of forwards with more than 200 5v5 minutes (18.44/60), and has a plum lineup spot beside the Two Joes. Unfortunately, Meier is relegated to secondary power play minutes – which explains his only having two PPP – so that will hurt fantasy owners that play in leagues that track that, but Meier is averaging 2.57SOG/Gm and has put up 8G-5A-13Pts to date this season. His ice time has started to jump up since the year turned over, and he collects the odd peripheral (hit/block) as well. Given his opportunity, Meier should have a great second half.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Aaron Ekblad, D, Florida (Owned in 74 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Ekblad in points-only leagues is almost a non-starter on a bad Florida team that also features Keith Yandle on the point – Ekblad has put up only 7G-6A-13Pts even seeing 23:54/game. Beyond a game against Nashville who typically funnel shots to come from the points, there’s nothing exciting about Ekblad’s upcoming schedule, and his value comes purely from leagues that count peripherals. It’s easy to forget Ekblad is just 21, but he’s a long way off his 39-point rookie season and should be benched until he gets hot; of his 13 points, four came in a one-week stretch, four came in another one-week stretch, and he went all of November and January with only one point in each month. He’s streaky, sit him for now.
The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D, Arizona (Owned in 81 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Beyond Arizona’s light upcoming schedule, there are many reasons to be concerned about OEL in the short-term, but more concerning is his long-term value. From game 28 to 46, the former 55-point defenseman put up all of one goal and two assists. He did that even seeing anywhere from 22-26 minutes every night, and his shot volume over the last ten games is nowhere close to what’s expected from him. For leagues that track +/-, OEL’s -19 from December 2nd onward is just a microcosm of how bad the Coyotes are; put him on the bench for the foreseeable future, hope he gets briefly hot, and shop him.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
Detroit – Hockeytown has been home to a pretty inconsistent team these days, but the Red Wings have some nice match-ups upcoming against teams that lack a bit in the defensive areas: New Jersey, Chicago and the sub-par goaltending of Carolina. All but the game against New Jersey come at home as well, which is a bonus in terms of avoiding some of the better shutdown lines in the league.
Chicago – Unfortunately the ‘Hawks are coming off their bye which is always a recipe for disaster, but going in their favour is that their first game back comes against the hapless Islanders (at home). Beyond that fantasy cakewalk, Chicago faces Tampa Bay, Toronto and Detroit before the break.
New Jersey – The Devils have four games before heading into the break and one after (on the 30th a.k.a. my birthday), and fantasy owners should look for NJ to continue their high-event hockey: in their past four games (not including vs. Washington), the Devils have hit 40 shots on goal three times and scored at least thee goals in every one. They play Philly, Detroit and Buffalo, but also have “tougher” games against the Preds and Boston.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
The bye weeks are finally over, but the All-Star Break also coincides with this week’s Looking Ahead, which means lots of options for teams to steer clear of.
Arizona – The Desert Dogs don’t have much happening in this next stretch with only three games between the 19th-31st, and although one is coming against the previously mentioned Islanders (jackpot!), the other two games come at St. Louis and home against Columbus. There are few fantasy relevant Coyotes in the first place, but leave them to the side if you own any.
Colorado – Nathan MacKinnon and company have been hot fire recently with seven wins in a row (reminder: stats updated through the 17th so this may have changed), and they do get five games in this next stretch, but unfortunately four of those games come on a road trip: against Toronto, Montreal, St. Louis, and Vancouver. In ten of the Avs’ 19 road games, Colorado has scored two or less as they can’t get their optimal line match-ups set up, so feel free to lower expectations for them.
New York Rangers – The Rangers have four games in this period but all four of them come on the road, first at Colorado followed by the California swing. In their previous ten games, NYR have scored more than two goals in just two games (Philadelphia, at Buffalo) and failed to hit 30 shots on goal in five of those ten. Play the studs but don’t get cute with secondary players.
January 19th to January 25th |
Best Bets |
DET 4.305 – Away NJD – Home CAR PHI CHI |
CHI 4.2425 – Away DET- Home NYI TBL TOR |
NJD 4.2 – Away PHI BOS – Home DET NSH |
MTL 4.12 – Away WSH – Home BOS COL CAR |
CGY 4.105 – Away EDM- Home WPG BUF LAK |
Steer Clear |
BOS 2.86 – Away MTL OTT- Home NJD |
ARI 2.8925 – Away STL – Home NYI CBJ |
PIT 2.8975 – Away SJS – Home CAR MIN |
MIN 2.9025 – Away PIT- Home TBL OTT |
WSH 3.05 – Away FLA- Home MTL PHI |
January 20th to January 26th |
Best Bets |
DET 4.305 – Away NJD – Home CAR PHI CHI |
CHI 4.2425 – Away DET – Home NYI TBL TOR |
NJD 4.2 – Away PHI BOS – Home DET NSH |
CGY 4.105 – Away EDM – Home WPG BUF LAK |
BUF 4.09 – Away CGY EDM VAN – Home DAL |
Steer Clear |
CBJ 2.185 – Away VGK ARI – Home |
FLA 2.6925 – Away NSH DAL – Home WSH |
BOS 2.86 – Away MTL OTT – Home NJD |
ARI 2.8925 – Away STL – Home NYI CBJ |
PIT 2.8975 – Away SJS – Home CAR MIN |
January 21st to January 27th |
Best Bets |
DET 3.2025 – Away NJD – Home PHI CHI |
CHI 3.1925 – Away DET – Home TBL TOR |
NJD 3.155 – Away BOS – Home DET NSH |
LAK 3.135 – Away VAN CGY – Home NYR |
TOR 3.1075 – Away CHI DAL – Home COL |
Steer Clear |
MIN 1.8525 – Away PIT – Home OTT
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ARI 1.9425 – Away – Home NYI CBJ |
PIT 1.995 – Away – Home CAR MIN |
BOS 2.005 – Away OTT – Home NJD |
NSH 2.0475 – Away NJD – Home TBL |
January 22nd to January 28th |
Best Bets |
DET 3.2025 – Away NJD – Home PHI CHI |
CHI 3.1925 – Away DET – Home TBL TOR |
NJD 3.155 – Away BOS – Home DET NSH |
TOR 3.1075 – Away CHI DAL – Home COL |
BUF 3.04 – Away CGY EDM VAN – Home |
Steer Clear |
NYR 1.805 – Away ANH SJS – Home |
CAR 1.71 – Away PIT MTL – Home |
WPG 1.805 – Away SJS ANH – Home |
FLA 1.79 – Away DAL – Home WSH |
MIN 1.8525 – Away PIT – Home OTT |
January 23rd to January 29th |
Best Bets |
MTL 2.31 – – Home COL CAR |
STL 2.205 – Away – Home OTT COL |
DET 2.205 – Away – Home PHI CHI |
EDM 2.2575 – Home BUF CGY |
CBJ 2.185 – Away VGK ARI – Home |
Steer Clear |
ARI 0.8925 – Away – Home CBJ |
WSH 0.95 – Away FLA – Home |
NYI 1.14 – Away VGK – Home |
CAR 1.71 – Away PIT MTL – Home |
FLA 1.79 – Away DAL – Home WSH |
January 24th to January 30th |
Best Bets |
CGY 3.1075 – Away EDM – Home LAK VGK |
CHI 3.045 – Away DET NSH- Home TOR |
VAN 2.3625 – Away – Home BUF COL |
BUF 2.2425 – Away VAN – Home NJD |
NYI 2.19 – Away VGK – Home FLA |
Steer Clear |
NYR 0.9025 – Away SJS – Home |
WSH 0.95 – Away FLA – Home |
DET 1.05 – Away – Home CHI |
PHI 1.05 – Away – Home TBL |
EDM 1.1025 – Away – Home CGY |
January 25th to January 31st |
Best Bets |
NYI 3.14 – Away VGK TOR- Home FLA |
SJS 2.945 – Away PIT DET- Home NYR |
VAN 2.3625 – Away – Home BUF COL |
BUF 2.2425 – Away VAN – Home NJD |
CGY 2.1625 – Away EDM – Home VGK |
Steer Clear |
NYR 0.9025 – Away SJS – Home |
LAK 0.95 – Away DAL – Home |
EDM 1.1025 – Away – Home CGY |
MIN 1.6625 – Away PIT CBJ – Home |
FLA 1.79 – Away NYI – Home WSH |