A look at past drafts
Ryan Ma
2008-06-10
With the 2008 NHL entry draft just a few weeks away we can look back to the past to see which areas of past NHL entry drafts were typically strong and you’ll be certainly be surprised to see which areas have been shockingly weak.
Below is a list of players drafted according to draft position since the 1993 NHL entry draft along with some of my picks as to who were the steals of the drafts.
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1st Overall 93- Alexander Daigle 94- Ed Jovanovski 95- Bryan Berard 96- Chris Philips 97- Joe Thornton 98- Vinny Lecavalier 99- Pat Stefan 00- Rick DiPietro 01- Ilya Kovalchuk 02- Rick Nash 03- M.A. Fleury 04- Alex Ovechkin 05- Sidney Crosby 06- Erik Johnson 07- Patrick Kane |
2nd Overall 93- Chris Pronger 94- Oleg Tverdovsky 95- Wade Redden 96- Andrei Zyuzin 97- Patrick Marleau 98- David Legwand 99- Daniel Sedin 00- Dany Heatley 01- Jason Spezza 02- Kari Lehtonen 03- Eric Staal 04- Evgeni Malkin 05- Bobby Ryan 06- Jordan Staal 07- James VanRiemsdyk |
3rd Overall 93- Chris Gratton 94- Radek Bonk 95- Aki Berg 96- J.P. Dumont 97- Olli Jokinen 98- Brad Stuart 99- Henrik Sedin 00- Marian Gaborik 01- Alexander Svitov 02- Jay Bouwmeester 03- Nathan Horton 04- Cam Barker 05-Jack Johnson 06- Jon Toews 07- Kyle Turris |
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4th Overall 93- Paul Kariya 94- Jason Bonsignore 95- Chad Kilger 96- Alexandre Volchkov 97- Roberto Luongo 98- Bryan Allen 99- Pavel Brendl 00- Rostislav Klesla 01- Stephen Weiss 02- Joni Pitkanen 03- Nik Zherdev 04- Andrew Ladd 05- Benoit Pouliot 06- Nik Backstrom 07- Thomas Hickey |
5th Overall 93- Rob Niedermayer 94- Jeff O’Niell 95- Daymond Langkow 96- Richard Jackman 97- Eric Brewer 98- Vitali Visnevsky 99- Tim Connolly 00- Raffi Torres 01- Mikko Koivu 02- Ryan Whitney 03- Thomas Vanek 04- Blake Wheeler 05- Carey Price 06- Phil Kessel 07- Karl Alzner |
6th Overall 93- Viktor Kozlov 94- Ryan Smyth 95- Steve Kelly 96- Boyd Devereaux 97- Daniel Tkaczuk 98- Rico Fata 99- Brian Finley 00- Scott Hartnell 01- Mike Komisarek 02- Scott Upshall 03- Milan Michalek 04- Al Montoya 05- Gilbert Brule 06- Derrick Brassard 07- Sam Gagner |
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7th Overall 93- Jason Arnott 94- Jamie Storr 95- Shane Doan 96- Erik Rasmussen 97- Paul Mara 98- Manny Malholtra 99- Krish Beech 00- Lars Jonsson 01- Pascal Leclaire 02- Joffrey Lupul 03-Ryan Suter 04- Rotislav Olesz 05- Jack Skille 06- Kyle Okposo 07- Jakub Voracek |
8th Overall 93- Niklas Sundstrom 94- Jason Wiemer 95- Terry Ryan 96- Johnathan Aitken 97- Sergei Samsonov 98- Mark Bell 99- Taylor Pyatt 00- Nikita Alexeev 01- Tuomo Ruutu 02- P.M. Bouchard 03- Braydon Coburn 04- Alex Picard 05- Devin Setoguchi 06- Peter Mueller 07-Zach Hamill |
9th Overall 93- Todd Harvey 94- Brett Lindros 95- Kyle McLaren 96- Ruslan Salei 97- Nick Boynton 98- Michael Rupp 99- Jamie Lundmark 00- Brent Krahn 01- Dan Blackburn 02- Petr Taticek 03- Dion Phaneuf 04- Ladi Smid 05- Brian Lee 06- James Sheppard 07- Logan Couture |
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10th Overall 93- Jocelyn Thibault 94- Nolan Baumgartner 95- Radek Dvorak 96- Lance Ward 97- Brad Ference 98- Nik Antropov 99- Branislav Mezei 00- Mikhail Yakubov 01- Freddie Sjostrom 02- Eric Nystrom 03- Andrei Kostitsyn 04- Boris Valabik 05- Luc Bourdon 06- Michael Frolik 07- Keaton Ellerby |
11th Overall 93- Brendan Witt 94- Jeff Frisen 95- Jarome Iginla 96- Dan Focht 97- Jason Ward 98- Jeff Heerema 99- Oleg Saprykin 00- Pavel Vorobiev 01- Dan Hamhuis 02- Keith Ballard 03- Jeff Carter 04- Lauri Tukonen 05- Anze Kopitar 06- Jon Bernier 07- Brandon Suter |
12th Overall 93- Kenny Jonsson 94- Wade Belak 95- Teemu Rihijarvi 96- Josh Holden 97- Marian Hossa 98- Alex Tanguay 99- Denis Shvidki 00- Alexi Smirnov 01- Dan Hamhuis 02- Steve Eminger 03-Hugh Jessiman 04- A.J. Thelen 05- Marc Staal 06- Bryan Little 07- Ryan McDonagh |
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13th Overall 93- Denis Pederson 94- Matthias Ohlund 95- J.S. Giguere 96- Derek Morris 97- Daniel Cleary 98- Michael Henrich 99- Jani Rita 00- Ron Hainsey 01- Ales Hemsky 02- Alex Semin 03- Dustin Brown 04- Drew Stafford 05- Marek Zagrapan 06- Jiri Tlusty 07- Lars Eller |
14th Overall 93- Adam Deadmarsh 94- Ethan Moreau 95- Jay McKee 96- Marty Reasoner 97- Michel Riesen 98-Patrick DesRochers 99- Jeff Jillson 00- Vaclav Nedorost 01- Chuck Kobasew 02- Chris Higgins 03- Brent Seabrook 04- Devan Dubnyk 05- Sasha Pokulok 06- Michael Grabner 07- Keven Shattenkirk |
15th Overall 93- Mats Lindgren 94-Alexander Kharlamov 95- Jeff Ware 96- Danius Zubrus 97- Matt Zultek 98- Mathieu Chouinard 99- Scott Keiman 00- Artem Kryukov 01- Igor Knyazev 02- Jeese Ninimaki 03- Robert Nilsson 04- Alex Radulov 05- Ryan O’Marra 06- Riku Helenius 07-Alex Plante |
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16th Overall 93- Nick Stajduhar 94- Eric Fichaud 95- Martin Biron 96- Mario Larocque 97- Ty Jones 98- Eric Chouinard 99- Dave Tanabe 00- Marcel Hossa 01- R.J. Umberger 02- Jakub Klepis 03- Steve Bernier 04- Pettero Nokelainen 05- Alex Bourret 06- Ty Wishart 07- Colton Gillies |
17th Overall 93- Jason Allison 94- Wayne Primeau 95- Brad Church 96- Jaroslav Svejkovsky 97- Robert Dome 98- Martin Skoula 99- Barret Jackman 00- Alex Miknov 01- Carlo Colaiacovo 02- Boyd Gordon 03- Zach Parise 04- Marek Schwarz 05- Martin Hanzal 06- Trevor Lewis 07- Alex Cherepanov |
18th Overall 93- Jesper Mattsson 94- Brad Brown 95- Petr Sykora 96- Matt Higgins 97- Michael Holmqvist 98- Dmitri Kalinin 99- Konstantin Koltsov 00- Brooks Orpik 01- Jens Karlsson 02- Denis Greshkov 03- Eric Fehr 04- Kyle Chipchura 05- Ryan Parent 06-Chris Stewart 07- Ian Cole |
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19th Overall 93- Landon Wilson 94- Chris Dingman 95- Dmitri Nabokov 96- Matthieu Descoteaux 97- Stefan Cherneski 98- Robyn Regehr 99- Kirill Safronov 00- Krys Kolanos 01- Shaone Morrison 02- Jakub Koreis 03- Ryan Getzlaf 04- Kauri Korpikoski 05- Jakub Kindl 06- Mark Mitera 07- Logan MacMilan |
20th Overall 93- Mike Wilson 94- Jason Botterill 95- Denis Gauthier 96- Marcus Nilson 97- Mike Brown 98- Scott Parker 99- Darrett Heisten 00- Alex Frolov 01- Marcel Goc 02-Daniel Paille 03- Brent Burns
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04- Travis Zajac 05- Kendal McArdle 06- David Fischer 07- Angelo Esposito |
21st Overall 93- Saku Koivu 94- Evgeni Ryabchikov 95- Sean Brown 96- Marco Sturm 97- Mika Noronen 98- Mathieu Biron 99- Nick Boynton 00- Anton Volchenkov 01- Colby Armstrong 02- Anton Babchuk 03- Mark Stuart 04- Wojtek Wolski 05- Tuuka Rask 06- Bob Sanguinetti 07- Riley Nash |
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22nd Overall 93- Anders Eriksson 94- Jeff Kealty 95- Brian Boucher 96- Jeff Brown 97- Nikos Tselios 98- Simon Gagne 99- Maxime Ouellet 00- David Hale 01- Jiri Novotny 02- Sean Bergenheim 03- M.A. Pouliot 04- Lukas Kaspar 05- Matt Lashoff 06-Claude Giroux 07- Max Pacioretty |
23rd Overall 93- Todd Bertuzzi 94- Yan Golubovsky 95- Miika Elomo 96- Craig Hillier 97- Scott Hannan 98- Milan Kraft 99- Steve McCarthy 00- Nathan Smith 01- Time Gleason 02- Ben Eager 03- Ryan Kesler 04- Andrej Meszaros 05- Nicklas Bergfors 06- Seme Varlamov 07- Jon Blum |
24th Overall 93- Eric Lecompte 94- Chris Wells 95- Alexei Morozov 96- Daniel Briere 97- J.F. Damphous 98- Christian Backman 99- Luca Cereda 00- Brad Boyes 01- Lukas Krajicek 02- Alex Steen 03- Mike Richards 04- Kris Chucko 05- T.J. Oshie 06- Dennis Persson 07- Mikael Backlund |
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25th Overall 93- Kevyn Adams 94- Vadim Sharifijanov 95- Marc Denis 96- Peter Ratchuk 97- Brenden Morrow 98- Jiri Fischer 99- Mikhail Kuleshov 00- Steve Ott 01- Alex Perezhogin 02- Cam Ward 03- Anthony Stewart 04- Rob Schremp 05- Andrew Cogliano 06- Patrik Berglund 07- Patrick White |
26th Overall 93- Stefan Bergvist 94- Dan Cloutier 95- Maxim Kuznetsov 96- Jesse Wallin 97- Kevin Grimes 98- Mike Van Ryn 99- Martin Havlat 00- Brian Sutherby 01- Jason Bacashihua 02- Martin Vagner 03- Brian Boyle 04- Cory Schneider 05- Mett Pelech 06- Leyland Irving 07- David Perron |
27th Overall 98- Scott Gomez 99- Ari Ahonen 00- Martin Samuelsson 01- Jeff Woywitka 02- Mike Morris 03- Jeff Tambellini 04- Jeff Schultz 05- Joe Finley 06- Ivan Vishnevsky 07- Brendan Smith |
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28th Overall 99- Kristian Kudroc 00- Justin Williams 01- Adrian Foster 02- Jonas Johansson 03- Corey Perry 04- Mark Fistric 05- Matt Niskanen 06- Nick Foligno 07- Nick Petricki
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29th Overall 00- Niklas Kronwall 01- Adam Munro 02- Hannu Toivonen 03- Patrick Eaves 04- Mike Green 05- Steve Downie 06- Chris Summers 07- Jim O’Brien
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30th Overall 00- Jeff Taffe 01- Dave Steckel 02- Jim Slater 03- Shawn Belle 04- Andy Rogers 05- Vladimir Mihalik 06- Matthew Corrente 07- Nick Ross |
Would you be surprised if I threw out the idea that in terms of points per game a player that is drafted 26 spots after the number one pick actually has a point-per-game average that equates to the point-per-game average of a second overall pick? Look at the table below for the average point-per-game totals from each draft position since the 1993 NHL Entry Draft.
|
Draft Pick |
Avg Point Per Game Played |
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1 |
0.709884 |
|
2 |
0.644033 |
|
3 |
0.576059 |
|
4 |
0.386314 |
|
5 |
0.474198 |
|
6 |
0.480193 |
|
7 |
0.395262 |
|
8 |
0.449716 |
|
9 |
0.28442 |
|
10 |
0.267413 |
|
11 |
0.586944 |
|
12 |
0.555513 |
|
13 |
0.4799 |
|
14 |
0.31746 |
|
15 |
0.523674 |
|
16 |
0.321294 |
|
17 |
0.311801 |
|
18 |
0.383814 |
|
19 |
0.262687 |
|
20 |
0.313375 |
|
21 |
0.343442 |
|
22 |
0.464349 |
|
23 |
0.278398 |
|
24 |
0.579375 |
|
25 |
0.404186 |
|
26 |
0.426446 |
|
27 |
0.630363 |
|
28 |
0.549296 |
|
29 |
0.408425 |
|
30 |
0.453933 |
As you can see it’s fairly across the board in terms of point-per-game production at each draft position. Only major outliers are position 4, 9, 10, 19 and 23.
Of course those numbers are too good to be true and a little skewed. The average 27th pick in NHL entry drafts averages nearly 300 less games played than the average 2nd overall pick. If you take a look at the data below, from the 6th overall pick to the 14th overall pick there isn’t a large discrepancy between them for the total number of games played. The 17th, 18th, 20th and 21st picked players usually have a similar career path as many 6th to 14th pick players. The 15th, 16th and 22nd drafted players tend to have a very short career NHL span, so we definitely wish good luck to the Preds, Bruins, and the Oilers with their picks this Entry draft. Hopefully the Isles will make good use of their 5th overall pick this draft and find themselves a good complement to their young budding superstar Kyle Okposo.
|
Draft Pick |
Total Career NHL Games Played |
Total Career NHL Points Scored |
|
1 |
5322 |
3778 |
|
2 |
5346 |
3443 |
|
3 |
5029 |
2897 |
|
4 |
2762 |
1067 |
|
5 |
4612 |
2187 |
|
6 |
3105 |
1491 |
|
7 |
3757 |
1485 |
|
8 |
2993 |
1346 |
|
9 |
3312 |
942 |
|
10 |
2412 |
645 |
|
11 |
3462 |
2032 |
|
12 |
2585 |
1436 |
|
13 |
3209 |
1540 |
|
14 |
2835 |
900 |
|
15 |
1056 |
553 |
|
16 |
1329 |
427 |
|
17 |
2415 |
753 |
|
18 |
2496 |
958 |
|
19 |
1675 |
440 |
|
20 |
2572 |
806 |
|
21 |
2737 |
940 |
|
22 |
1122 |
521 |
|
23 |
1972 |
549 |
|
24 |
2337 |
1354 |
|
25 |
1529 |
618 |
|
26 |
1210 |
516 |
|
27 |
909 |
573 |
|
28 |
852 |
468 |
|
29 |
546 |
223 |
|
30 |
445 |
202 |
No surprises here, the first overall player that is taken usually has the most productive career in terms of point production with second and third lagging not too far behind. What’s interesting is the 4th overall players have struggled mightily during their NHL careers and their point totals are very similar to those that were drafted in the early-mid teens. So we wish the St. Louis Blues the best of luck in their pick this entry draft, but with the plethora of talented defensemen this draft, it’s safe to say that those totals probably won’t be swayed too much after this draft. The 11th, 12th and 13th overall picks have shown decent career NHL production, considering they have similar totals to players who were drafted six spots ahead of them during the drafts. The Blackhawks, Ducks (via the Oilers) and the Sabres have history on their side with their picks this entry draft and should probably come out with a decent mid round pick. The biggest surprise definitely goes to the 24th pick. As a whole, they have produced as much points overall as the 8th overall picks since 1993. We definitely wish good luck to the Wild with the nice 24th pick in this season’s NHL entry draft, but the Wild have a history of developing their young talent slowly and by the time this 24th pick is NHL ready, Gabby might be long gone.
Prior to the draft we’ll take a look at a team-by-team analysis of which team has had the best first-round drafting outcome and which teams have had the worst.
Any comments as to why the 24th pick have ended up with decent NHL careers or any explanations as to why the fourth overall pick has struggled so mightily during theirs? Comment on them here . You can also venture a guess as to who you think has had the best first round drafting and who has had the worst.
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