Looking Ahead: Week 1
Dave Poleck
2010-10-01
One of the first things I do during the first few weeks of fantasy hockey is stay away from the teams that play overseas. While a set back after returning to North American soil isn't always guaranteed, why take the risk so early in the season?
The chart below shows the goals for of teams once they return from playing in Europe compared to how they fared during the rest of the season.
|
2007-08 |
Goals For |
|
|
|
October |
Rest of Season |
|
LA |
3.1 |
2.4 |
|
Anaheim |
2 |
2.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
2008-09 |
Goals For |
|
|
|
October |
Rest of Season |
|
Ottawa |
2.8 |
2.6 |
|
Pittsburgh |
2.3 |
3.3 |
|
NYR |
2.9 |
2.5 |
|
Tampa Bay |
2.4 |
2.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
2009-10 |
|
|
|
📢 advertisement:
|
October |
Rest of Season |
|
St. Louis |
1.5 |
2.8 |
|
Detroit |
3.2 |
2.7 |
|
Chicago |
3 |
3.3 |
|
Florida |
2.8 |
2.5 |
These numbers are easily skewed because one 6-0 win in October can drastically change the 'goals for' for that month (LA won 8-6 in October 2007), but it does give you an idea of how the travel can effect teams early on.
Last year for the example, the Blues answered all of our dreams by coming out and smoking Detroit in their first two games in Sweden, then went on to score 15 goals in their next 10 games back in North America. Although this is a pretty small sample size, it looks to me like the good teams are able to recover from the travel, while the bad teams struggle to catch their feet after the slow start. Recent exceptions include the Wings last year, who went through season long injury problems and the Sens in 2009-10. Who could forget their second half slump?
Your teams this year are Boston, Carolina, Phoenix, Minnesota, Columbus and San Jose. Expect four of those teams to be able to pull themselves back to a normal ground as the season progresses. With a new coach in place, Columbus might be able to as well, but don't count on any extraordinary revivals from Minnesota after they return; they're my pick to finish dead last in the West.
The team that gets hit the worst from opening in Europe is the San Jose Sharks. While they might be the best offensive team headed overseas, they play their last game in Europe on October 9, but then only have two games over the next 10 days.
Moving on to the non Europe bound teams, LA only plays once during the Wednesday to Tuesday schedule. If last year's round one battle was any indication against Vancouver, their one game should be great to watch, but keep your Kings on the bench.
If there is ever a team that you could feel good about playing players from on a two game week, it's the Washington Capitals. They scored an unbelievable 45 more goals than any other team in the League last season. The difference between the first and second teams in goals for since the lockout were: 19, 1, 12, 11. Surely, the Caps will once again reign among the league's scoring elite. However, if there was ever a week that you might want to consider sitting Ovie, Green or Backstrom, it would be Thursday Oct 14-Wednesday Oct 20 when they face Nashville and Boston.
Dave's Best of the Best
Wednesday Oct 13 to Tuesday Oct 19
Vancouver- Ana, LA, Car, Minnesota
Three non playoff teams from last season against the league's second highest scoring team gets me excited for anyone who has a Canuck that week. L.A. will be tough, especially since they'll want to avenge their first round exit as mentioned earlier, but the Sedins and co. will want to make a statement against a team that they might be battling for the Conference title with all season.
Note
Hope everyone enjoyed my first crack at this. Feel free to PM me or shoot me an email ([email protected]) if you have any suggestions or analysis that you would like to see.
| Thursday October 7 to Wednesday October 13, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| NJ 3.99 – four games DAL, @WAS, PIT, @BUF | ||||||
| Washington 3.98 – four games @ATL, NJ, OTT, NYI | ||||||
| Anaheim 3.83 – four games @DET, @NAS, @STL, VAN | ||||||
| Pittsburgh 3.87 – four games PHI, MON, @NJ, TOR | ||||||
| Chicago 3.72 – four games @COL, DET, @BUF, NAS | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| Phoenix 1.72 – two games @BOS, BOS (Prague) | ||||||
| Boston 1.72 – two games PHO, @PHO (Prague) | ||||||
| Columbus 1.85 – two games @SJ, SJ (Stockholm) | ||||||
| Edmonton 1.85 – two games CAL, FLA | ||||||
| St. Louis 1.94 – two games PHI, ANA | ||||||
| Friday October 8 to Thursday October 14, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| Ottawa 4.14 – four games BUF, @TOR, @WAS, CAR | ||||||
| Detroit 4.06 – four games ANA, @CHI, COL, @DAL | ||||||
| NJ 3.99 – four games DAL, @WAS, PIT, @BUF | ||||||
| Washington 3.98 – four games @ATL, NJ, OTT, NYI | ||||||
| Anaheim 3.83 – four games @DET, @NAS, @STL, VAN | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| Phoenix 1.72 – two games @BOS, BOS (Prague) | ||||||
| Boston 1.72 – two games PHO, @PHO (Prague) | ||||||
| Columbus 1.85 – two games @SJ, SJ (Stockholm) | ||||||
| Calgary 1.89 – two games LA, FLA | ||||||
| Colorado 1.99 – two games @PHI, @DET | ||||||
| Saturday October 9 to Friday October 15, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| NYI 4.04 – four games DAL, NYR, @WAS, @PIT | ||||||
| Vancouver 4.01 – four games LA, FLA, @Ana, @LA | ||||||
| Pittsburgh 3.94 – four games MON, @NJ, TOR, NYI | ||||||
| New Jersey 3.90 – four games @WAS, PIT, @BUF, COL | ||||||
| Anaheim 3.90 – four games @NAS, @STL, VAN, ATL | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| Carolina 1.07 – one game @OTT | ||||||
| Minnesota 1.16 – one game EDM | ||||||
| San Jose 1.17 – one game @CBJ | ||||||
| Phoenix 1.72 – two games @BOS, BOS (Prague) | ||||||
| Columbus 1.73 – two games @SJ, SJ (Stockholm) | ||||||
| Sunday October 10 to Saturday October 16, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| Florida 4.29 – four games @EDM, @VAN, @CAL, TB | ||||||
| Pittsburgh 4.04 – four games @NJ, TOR, NYI, @PHI | ||||||
| Colorado 4.04 – four games @PHI, @DET, @NJ, @NYI | ||||||
| NYI 3.95 – four games NYR, @WAS, @PIT, COL | ||||||
| Chicago 3.80 – four games @BUF, NAS, @CBJ, BUF | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| San Jose 1.04 – one game ATL | ||||||
| Carolina 1.07 – one game @CAR | ||||||
| Phoenix 1.70 – two games BOS, DET | ||||||
| Boston 1.77 – two games @PHO, @NJ | ||||||
| Dallas 1.79 – two games DET, STL | ||||||
| Monday October 11 to Sunday October 17, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| Vancouver 4.16 – four games FLA, @ANA, @LA, CAR | ||||||
| Pittsburgh 4.04 – four games @NJ, TOR, NYI, @PHI | ||||||
| Colorado 4.04 – four games @PHI, @DET, @NJ, @NYI | ||||||
| NYI 3.95 – four games NYR, @WAS, @PIT, COL | ||||||
| Chicago 3.80 – four games @BUF, NAS, @CBJ, BUF | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| Boston 0.86 – one game @NJ | ||||||
| San Jose 1.04 – one game ATL | ||||||
| Dallas 1.79 – two games DET, STL | ||||||
| LA 1.95 – two games ATL, VAN | ||||||
| Columbus 1.96 – two games CHI, @MIN | ||||||
| Tuesday October 12 to Monday October 18, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| NYI 4.27 – four games @WAS, @PIT, COL, @TOR | ||||||
| Tampa Bay 4.16 – four games @MON, @PHI, @FLA, DAL | ||||||
| Pittsburgh 4.15 – four games TOR, NYI, @PHI, OTT | ||||||
| Colorado 4.01 – four games @DET, @NJ, @NYI, @NYR | ||||||
| Chicago 3.78 – four games NAS, @CBJ, BUF, STL | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| Boston 0.86 – one game @NJ | ||||||
| San Jose 1.04 – one game ATL | ||||||
| LA 1.95 – two games ATL, VAN | ||||||
| Columbus 1.96 – two games CHI, @MIN | ||||||
| Florida 2.01 – two games @CAL, TB | ||||||
| Wednesday October 13 to Tuesday October 19, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| Vancouver 4.27 – four games @ANA, @LA, CAR, @MIN | ||||||
| NYI 4.27 – four games @WAS, @PIT, COL, @TOR | ||||||
| Tampa Bay 4.16 – four games @MON, @PHI, @FLA, DAL | ||||||
| Pittsburgh 4.15 – four games TOR, NYI, @PHI, OTT | ||||||
| Chicago 3.78 – four games NAS, @CBJ, BUF, STL | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| LA 0.91 – one game VAN | ||||||
| Boston – two games @NJ, @WAS | ||||||
| Columbus 1.96 – two games CHI, @MIN | ||||||
| Florida 2.01 – two games @CAL, TB | ||||||
| Phoenix 2.01 – two games DET, @ANA | ||||||
| Thursday October 14 to Wednesday October 20, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| Vancouver 4.08 – four games @LA, CAR, @MIN, @CHI | ||||||
| Carolina 4.03 – four games @OTT, @VAN, @SJ, @LA | ||||||
| Chicago 3.83 – four games @CBJ, BUF, STL, VAN | ||||||
| NYI 3.22 – three games @PIT, COL, @TOR | ||||||
| Tampa Bay 3.15 – three games @PHI, @FLA, DAL | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| Washington 1.76 – two games @NAS, BOS | ||||||
| New Jersey 1.77 – two games COL, BOS | ||||||
| Montreal 1.90 – two games @BUF, MON | ||||||
| Boston 1.91 – two games @NJ, @WAS | ||||||
| LA 1.95 – two games VAN, CAR | ||||||
| Friday October 15 to Thursday October 21, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| NYI 4.39 – four games @PIT, COL, @TOR, @TB | ||||||
| Vancouver 4.08 – four games @LA, CAR, @MIN, @CHI | ||||||
| Anaheim 4.05 – four games ATL, PHO, @CBJ, @PHI | ||||||
| Pittsburgh 4.01 – four games NYI, @PHI, OTT, @NAS | ||||||
| Colorado 3.91 – four games @NJ, @NYI, @NYR, SJ | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| Detroit 1.77 – two games @PHO, CAL | ||||||
| Edmonton 1.95 – two games @CAL, MIN | ||||||
| Philadelphia 1.99 – two games PIT, ANA | ||||||
| Ottawa 2.07 – two games @MON, @PIT | ||||||
| St. Louis 2.09 – two games @DAL, @CHI | ||||||
| Saturday October 16 to Friday October 22, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| Tampa Bay 4.37 – four games @FLA, DAL, NYI, @ATL | ||||||
| Calgary 4.24 – four games EDM, @NAS, @DET, @CBJ | ||||||
| Minnesota 4.24 – four games CBJ, VAN, @EDM, @VAN | ||||||
| Vancouver 4.10 – four games CAR, @MIN, @CHI, MIN | ||||||
| Chicago 3.66 – four games BUF, STL, VAN, @STL | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| Montreal 1.75 – two games OTT, NJ | ||||||
| Detroit 1.77 – two games @PHO, CAL | ||||||
| New Jersey 1.82 – two games BOS, @MON | ||||||
| Edmonton 1.95 – two games @CAL, MIN | ||||||
| LA 1.95 – two games CAR, @PHO |
Related Posts
UPCOMING GAMES
TOR
UTAStarting Goalies
Top Skater Views
CBJ
COL
FLA
DALTop Goalie Profile Views
BUF
NYR
CGY
LINE COMBOS
| Frequency |
 CAR Players
| |
|---|---|---|
| 24.2 | ANDREI SVECHNIKOV JACK ROSLOVIC SEBASTIAN AHO | |
| 14.4 | JORDAN STAAL JORDAN MARTINOOK WILLIAM CARRIER | |
| 11.6 | ERIC ROBINSON MARTIN NECAS JACK DRURY | |
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