Looking Ahead – Week 5

Dave Poleck

2011-11-04

 

Weber

 

A tough decision can be made easier with these charts showing you the best five and worst five schedules for upcoming seven-day periods. Some of you used them last year but for the benefit of new readers here is a refresher. The number next to the team indicates the ‘multiplier’ to use on a player’s point-per-game pace to give you an idea how many points to expect for that week.

 

The indicators that help determine the multipliers that you see for each team have been updated to accommodate the first month of the season. For instance, obviously no one predicted the Oilers to be allowing 1.33 goals per game at this point, but seeing as their success has proved to be more than just a week long streak, I decided to adjust their indicator. I will continue to do this every few weeks throughout the season when teams have shown significant and lengthy changes to their team defense.

 

The Red Wings are really not helping out with my suggestion a few weeks ago that you should buy low on some of their players when they had played three to four games less than some teams. The Wings have played two games of a six game homestand, but only have two goals for to show for it (and only six goals in their last six games). They finish the stretch off against Anaheim on Saturday, and then Colorado, Edmonton and Dallas next week. Last season, this would have been an easy three or four wins with four goals a piece, but those teams sit 12th, 20th, 1st and 4th respectively in terms of goals against per game. At least they don't have to face Josh Harding again.

 

As of after Thursday night's games, the Penguins have still played four more games than Washington and Long Island, and three more than 10 other teams.

 

After a four day break in between games, the Western Conference leading Oilers started off their six game road trip with a resounding 3-0 victory over Jonathan Quick and the Kings on Thursday. They have allowed two goals or less in 11 of their 12 games this season; their only hiccup being a 4-3 loss to Vancouver in early October. They finish off their trip in Phoenix, Montreal, Boston, Detroit and Chicago.

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After only allowing more than three goals once in their first six games, the Avs have now let three or more in five of their last six; which helps explain their fall to 20th in the goals per game category. After Friday's match with Dallas, Colorado plays 11 of their next 14 games at home, including a stretch of eight straight to finish out the month.

 

Another surprise near the top of the league in defense is the New York Islanders who sit with 2.50 goals per game, ahead of Boston, Montreal and Anaheim. However like the Avs, they are moving in the wrong direction as they've allowed 20 goals over the last six games, but only six over the first four. They also have an extremely tough month of November with plenty of Eastern action; two games against Boston and New Jersey and single matchups against Rangers, Habs, Penguins, Flyers, Sabres and Canucks.

 

Friday Nov 4 to Thursday Nov 10, 2010
Best Bets
Colorado 4.25 – @Dal, Cgy, @Det, NYI
Montreal 4.21 – @Ott, @NYR, Edm, @Phx
Chicago 4.12 – @TB, Van, @StL, @CBJ
Winnpeg 3.87 – @NJ, @NYR, @Buf, Fla
St. Louis 3.81 – Van, @Min, Chi, Tor
Steer Clear
Pittsburgh 0.91 – @LA
Anaheim 1.91 – @Det, Nas
Columbus 1.96 – @Phi, Chi
Phoenix 1.98 – Edm, Mon
New Jersey 2.11 – Win, Car
Saturday Nov 5 to Friday Nov 11, 2010
Best Bets
NY Rangers 4.12 – Mon, Win, @Ott, Car
Chicago 4.01 – Van, @StL, @CBJ, Cgy
Edmonton 3.99 – @Phx, @Mon, @Bos, @Det
Winnpeg 3.87 – @NJ, @NYR, @Buf, Fla
Florida 3.38 – TB, @Tor, @Win
Steer Clear
Pittsburgh 1.87 – @LA, Dal
Columbus 1.96 – @Phi, Chi
Tampa Bay 1.98 – @Fla, Phi
Phoenix 1.98 – Edm, Mon
Philadelphia 2.17 – CBJ, @TB
Sunday Nov 6 to Saturday Nov 12, 2010
Best Bets
Calgary 4.64 – @Col, Min, @Chi, @Col
Colorda 4.10 – Cgy, @Det, NYI, Cgy
Winnipeg 4.09 – @NYR, @Buf, Fla, @CBJ
Dallas 4.02 – @Car, @Wash, @Pit, @Det
Chicago 4.01 – Van, @StL, @CBJ, Cgy
Steer Clear
Philadelphia 1.10 – @TB
Anaheim 1.57 – Nas, Van
Phoenix 1.84 – Mon, @SJ
Columbus 2.05 – Chi, Win
Pittsburgh 2.03 – Dal, @Car
Monday Nov 7 to Sunday Nov 13, 2010
Best Bets
Chicago 4.19 – @StL, @CBJ, Cgy, Edm
Minnesota 4.05 – @Cgy, @SJ, @LA, @Ana
Edmonton 3.96 – @Mon, @Bos, @Det, @Chi
Los Angeles 3.57 – @SJ, Nas, Van, Min
Florida 3.33 – @Tor, @Wpg, Phi
Steer Clear
Phoenix 1.84 – Mon, @SJ
Tampa Bay 2.02 – Phi, @StL
Pittsburgh 2.03 – Dal, @Car
Columbus 2.05 – Chi, Win
NY Rangers 2.14 – @Ott, Car
Tuesday Nov 8 to Monday Nov 14, 2010
Best Bets
Chicago 4.19 – @StL, @CBJ, Cgy, Edm
Winnipeg 4.18 – @Buf, Fla, @CBJ, TB
Minnesota 4.05 – @Cgy, @SJ, @LA, @Ana
Buffalo 4.01 – Wpg, Ott, @Bos, @Mon
Edmonton 3.96 – @Mon, @Bos, @Det, @Chi
Steer Clear
Phoenix 1.84 – Mon, @SJ
Boston 1.90 – Edm, Buf





San Jose 1.90 – Min, Phx





Pittsburgh 2.03 – Dal, @Car
Columbus 2.05 – Chi, Win
Wednesday Nov 9 to Tuesday Nov 15, 2010
Best Bets
Minnesota 4.15 – @SJ, @LA, @Ana, @CBJ

Ottawa 4.11 – NYR, @Buf, @Tor, @Cgy


Calgary 3.39 – @Chi, @Col, Ott
NY Rangers 3.35 – @Ott, Car, @NYI

Tampa Bay 3.26 – Phi, @StL, @Wpg
Steer Clear
Los Angeles 1.78 – Van, Minn
San Jose 1.90 – Min, Phx
Anaheim 2.59 – Nas, Van, Min
New Jersey 2.61 – Was, @Was, @Bos
Carolina 2.68 – @NYR, Pit, Phi
Thursday Nov 10 to Wednesday Nov 16, 2010
Best Bets
Minnesota 4.15 – @SJ, @LA, @Ana, @CBJ
Chicago 4.02 – @CBJ, Cgy, Edm, @Van
Vancouver 4.01 – @Van, @Ana, NYI, Chi

Montreal 3.87 – @Phx, @Nas, Buf, Car
Buffalo 3.79 – Ott, @Bos, @Mon, NJ

Steer Clear
Nashville 1.68 – Mon, Was
San Jose 1.90 – Min, Phx
Philadelphia 2.15 – @Fla, @Car
NY Rangers 2.21 – Car, @NYI
Tampa Bay 2.31 – @StL, @Wpg
Friday Nov 11 to Thursday Nov 17, 2010
Best Bets
Minnesota 4.35 – @LA, @Ana, @CBJ, Col
Ottawa 4.34 – @Buf, @Tor, @Cgy, @Edm
Pittsburgh 4.32 – Dal, @Car, Col, @TB
Montreal 4.04 – @Nas, Buf, Car, @NYI
Washington 4.02 – @NJ, NJ, @Nas, @Wpg
Steer Clear
San Jose 1.91 – Phx, Det
NY Rangers 2.20 – Car, @NYI
NY Islanders 2.59 – @Van, NYR, Mon
Nashville 2.73 – Mon, Was, Tor
Chicago 2.84 – Cgy, Edm, @Van
Saturday Nov 12 to Friday Nov 18, 2010
Best Bets
Minnesota 4.35 – @LA, @Ana, @CBJ, Col
Montreal 4.04 – @Nas, Buf, Car, @NYI
Colorado 3.89 – Cgy, @Pit, @Min, Dal
Buffalo 3.85 – @Bos, @Mon, NJ, @Car
Carolina 3.68 – Pit, Phi, @Mon, Buf
Steer Clear
NY Rangers 1.20 – @NYI
San Jose 1.91 – Phx, Det
Vancouver 2.03 – NYI, Chi
Edmonton 2.07 – @Chi, Ott
NY Islanders 2.59 – @Van, NYR, Mon
Sunday Nov 13 to Saturday Nov 19, 2010
Best Bets
Minnesota 4.43 – @Ana, @CBJ, Col, StL
Philadelphia 4.32 – @Fla, @Car, Phx, @Wpg
Chicago 3.99 – Edm, @Van, @Cgy, @Edm
Montreal 3.97 – Buf, Car, @NYI, NYR
Buffalo 3.89 – @Mon, NJ, @Car, Phx
Steer Clear
Calgary 1.97 – Ott, Chi
San Jose 2.00 – Det, @Dal
Vancouver 2.03 – NYI, Chi
Ottawa 2.14 – @Cgy, @Edm
NY Rangers 2.17 – @NYI, @Mon

 

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