Looking Ahead – Week 5
Dave Poleck
2011-11-04
A tough decision can be made easier with these charts showing you the best five and worst five schedules for upcoming seven-day periods. Some of you used them last year but for the benefit of new readers here is a refresher. The number next to the team indicates the ‘multiplier’ to use on a player’s point-per-game pace to give you an idea how many points to expect for that week.
The indicators that help determine the multipliers that you see for each team have been updated to accommodate the first month of the season. For instance, obviously no one predicted the Oilers to be allowing 1.33 goals per game at this point, but seeing as their success has proved to be more than just a week long streak, I decided to adjust their indicator. I will continue to do this every few weeks throughout the season when teams have shown significant and lengthy changes to their team defense.
The Red Wings are really not helping out with my suggestion a few weeks ago that you should buy low on some of their players when they had played three to four games less than some teams. The Wings have played two games of a six game homestand, but only have two goals for to show for it (and only six goals in their last six games). They finish the stretch off against Anaheim on Saturday, and then Colorado, Edmonton and Dallas next week. Last season, this would have been an easy three or four wins with four goals a piece, but those teams sit 12th, 20th, 1st and 4th respectively in terms of goals against per game. At least they don't have to face Josh Harding again.
As of after Thursday night's games, the Penguins have still played four more games than Washington and Long Island, and three more than 10 other teams.
After a four day break in between games, the Western Conference leading Oilers started off their six game road trip with a resounding 3-0 victory over Jonathan Quick and the Kings on Thursday. They have allowed two goals or less in 11 of their 12 games this season; their only hiccup being a 4-3 loss to Vancouver in early October. They finish off their trip in Phoenix, Montreal, Boston, Detroit and Chicago.
After only allowing more than three goals once in their first six games, the Avs have now let three or more in five of their last six; which helps explain their fall to 20th in the goals per game category. After Friday's match with Dallas, Colorado plays 11 of their next 14 games at home, including a stretch of eight straight to finish out the month.
Another surprise near the top of the league in defense is the New York Islanders who sit with 2.50 goals per game, ahead of Boston, Montreal and Anaheim. However like the Avs, they are moving in the wrong direction as they've allowed 20 goals over the last six games, but only six over the first four. They also have an extremely tough month of November with plenty of Eastern action; two games against Boston and New Jersey and single matchups against Rangers, Habs, Penguins, Flyers, Sabres and Canucks.
Friday Nov 4 to Thursday Nov 10, 2010 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
Colorado 4.25 – @Dal, Cgy, @Det, NYI | ||||||
Montreal 4.21 – @Ott, @NYR, Edm, @Phx | ||||||
Chicago 4.12 – @TB, Van, @StL, @CBJ | ||||||
Winnpeg 3.87 – @NJ, @NYR, @Buf, Fla | ||||||
St. Louis 3.81 – Van, @Min, Chi, Tor | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
Pittsburgh 0.91 – @LA | ||||||
Anaheim 1.91 – @Det, Nas | ||||||
Columbus 1.96 – @Phi, Chi | ||||||
Phoenix 1.98 – Edm, Mon | ||||||
New Jersey 2.11 – Win, Car | ||||||
Saturday Nov 5 to Friday Nov 11, 2010 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
NY Rangers 4.12 – Mon, Win, @Ott, Car | ||||||
Chicago 4.01 – Van, @StL, @CBJ, Cgy | ||||||
Edmonton 3.99 – @Phx, @Mon, @Bos, @Det | ||||||
Winnpeg 3.87 – @NJ, @NYR, @Buf, Fla | ||||||
Florida 3.38 – TB, @Tor, @Win | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
Pittsburgh 1.87 – @LA, Dal | ||||||
Columbus 1.96 – @Phi, Chi | ||||||
Tampa Bay 1.98 – @Fla, Phi | ||||||
Phoenix 1.98 – Edm, Mon | ||||||
Philadelphia 2.17 – CBJ, @TB | ||||||
Sunday Nov 6 to Saturday Nov 12, 2010 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
Calgary 4.64 – @Col, Min, @Chi, @Col | ||||||
Colorda 4.10 – Cgy, @Det, NYI, Cgy | ||||||
Winnipeg 4.09 – @NYR, @Buf, Fla, @CBJ | ||||||
Dallas 4.02 – @Car, @Wash, @Pit, @Det | ||||||
Chicago 4.01 – Van, @StL, @CBJ, Cgy | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
Philadelphia 1.10 – @TB | ||||||
Anaheim 1.57 – Nas, Van | ||||||
Phoenix 1.84 – Mon, @SJ | ||||||
Columbus 2.05 – Chi, Win | ||||||
Pittsburgh 2.03 – Dal, @Car | ||||||
Monday Nov 7 to Sunday Nov 13, 2010 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
Chicago 4.19 – @StL, @CBJ, Cgy, Edm | ||||||
Minnesota 4.05 – @Cgy, @SJ, @LA, @Ana | ||||||
Edmonton 3.96 – @Mon, @Bos, @Det, @Chi | ||||||
Los Angeles 3.57 – @SJ, Nas, Van, Min | ||||||
Florida 3.33 – @Tor, @Wpg, Phi | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
Phoenix 1.84 – Mon, @SJ | ||||||
Tampa Bay 2.02 – Phi, @StL | ||||||
Pittsburgh 2.03 – Dal, @Car | ||||||
Columbus 2.05 – Chi, Win | ||||||
NY Rangers 2.14 – @Ott, Car | ||||||
Tuesday Nov 8 to Monday Nov 14, 2010 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
Chicago 4.19 – @StL, @CBJ, Cgy, Edm | ||||||
Winnipeg 4.18 – @Buf, Fla, @CBJ, TB | ||||||
Minnesota 4.05 – @Cgy, @SJ, @LA, @Ana | ||||||
Buffalo 4.01 – Wpg, Ott, @Bos, @Mon | ||||||
Edmonton 3.96 – @Mon, @Bos, @Det, @Chi | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
Phoenix 1.84 – Mon, @SJ | ||||||
Boston 1.90 – Edm, Buf | ||||||
San Jose 1.90 – Min, Phx | ||||||
Pittsburgh 2.03 – Dal, @Car | ||||||
Columbus 2.05 – Chi, Win | ||||||
Wednesday Nov 9 to Tuesday Nov 15, 2010 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
Minnesota 4.15 – @SJ, @LA, @Ana, @CBJ | ||||||
Ottawa 4.11 – NYR, @Buf, @Tor, @Cgy | ||||||
Calgary 3.39 – @Chi, @Col, Ott | ||||||
NY Rangers 3.35 – @Ott, Car, @NYI | ||||||
Tampa Bay 3.26 – Phi, @StL, @Wpg | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
Los Angeles 1.78 – Van, Minn | ||||||
San Jose 1.90 – Min, Phx | ||||||
Anaheim 2.59 – Nas, Van, Min | ||||||
New Jersey 2.61 – Was, @Was, @Bos | ||||||
Carolina 2.68 – @NYR, Pit, Phi | ||||||
Thursday Nov 10 to Wednesday Nov 16, 2010 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
Minnesota 4.15 – @SJ, @LA, @Ana, @CBJ | ||||||
Chicago 4.02 – @CBJ, Cgy, Edm, @Van | ||||||
Vancouver 4.01 – @Van, @Ana, NYI, Chi | ||||||
Montreal 3.87 – @Phx, @Nas, Buf, Car | ||||||
Buffalo 3.79 – Ott, @Bos, @Mon, NJ | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
Nashville 1.68 – Mon, Was | ||||||
San Jose 1.90 – Min, Phx | ||||||
Philadelphia 2.15 – @Fla, @Car | ||||||
NY Rangers 2.21 – Car, @NYI | ||||||
Tampa Bay 2.31 – @StL, @Wpg | ||||||
Friday Nov 11 to Thursday Nov 17, 2010 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
Minnesota 4.35 – @LA, @Ana, @CBJ, Col | ||||||
Ottawa 4.34 – @Buf, @Tor, @Cgy, @Edm | ||||||
Pittsburgh 4.32 – Dal, @Car, Col, @TB | ||||||
Montreal 4.04 – @Nas, Buf, Car, @NYI | ||||||
Washington 4.02 – @NJ, NJ, @Nas, @Wpg | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
San Jose 1.91 – Phx, Det | ||||||
NY Rangers 2.20 – Car, @NYI | ||||||
NY Islanders 2.59 – @Van, NYR, Mon | ||||||
Nashville 2.73 – Mon, Was, Tor | ||||||
Chicago 2.84 – Cgy, Edm, @Van | ||||||
Saturday Nov 12 to Friday Nov 18, 2010 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
Minnesota 4.35 – @LA, @Ana, @CBJ, Col | ||||||
Montreal 4.04 – @Nas, Buf, Car, @NYI | ||||||
Colorado 3.89 – Cgy, @Pit, @Min, Dal | ||||||
Buffalo 3.85 – @Bos, @Mon, NJ, @Car | ||||||
Carolina 3.68 – Pit, Phi, @Mon, Buf | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
NY Rangers 1.20 – @NYI | ||||||
San Jose 1.91 – Phx, Det | ||||||
Vancouver 2.03 – NYI, Chi | ||||||
Edmonton 2.07 – @Chi, Ott | ||||||
NY Islanders 2.59 – @Van, NYR, Mon | ||||||
Sunday Nov 13 to Saturday Nov 19, 2010 | ||||||
Best Bets | ||||||
Minnesota 4.43 – @Ana, @CBJ, Col, StL | ||||||
Philadelphia 4.32 – @Fla, @Car, Phx, @Wpg | ||||||
Chicago 3.99 – Edm, @Van, @Cgy, @Edm | ||||||
Montreal 3.97 – Buf, Car, @NYI, NYR | ||||||
Buffalo 3.89 – @Mon, NJ, @Car, Phx | ||||||
Steer Clear | ||||||
Calgary 1.97 – Ott, Chi | ||||||
San Jose 2.00 – Det, @Dal | ||||||
Vancouver 2.03 – NYI, Chi | ||||||
Ottawa 2.14 – @Cgy, @Edm | ||||||
NY Rangers 2.17 – @NYI, @Mon |