Forensics – Aaron Rome and Derek Roy

Jason Arbuthnot

2011-11-15

Roy

 

Over the past two weeks, you've had a couple of in depth walk-throughs of my Frozen Pool tools.  You've had some time to test them out for yourself and you're ready for the big time.

 

Today we'll start to ramp up on some statistically noteworthy players over the past week. There are a bunch of players that finally woke up and some others that are doing well but you should probably write off as a flavor of the week. Here's a look at a one from both.

 

1. Derek Roy   – Real Deal

 

He's baaaack! With eight points in the last four games this week, he's by far this week's winner. There's nothing really investigate here and nothing you don't know. He's just back on track from a frigid start to the season. Not Zetterberg frigid but chilly nonetheless. I'm sure there were some trigger-happy managers who dumped him during his 6 game scoring drought but your patience has been rewarded. Ah it's good to own land…

 

Pos

Age

NHL

Yrs

Team

GP

G

A

Pts

PPG

GW

PPP

%PP

%TOI

Shots

+/-

PIM

C

28

7

BUF

4

4

4

8

2.00

0

3

63.0

35.9

9

2

0

 

 

  1. Aaron Rome  – Flavor of the Week

 

Well, well, well… what do we have here? It's none other than Aaron Rome and he's doing a good job of pulling the wool over your eyes. Look at this fine line. Magnificent week isn't it?  It's pretty much his entire season's scoring too as he's only played 4 games and has 5 points. That's getting into Green Visnovsky Bergeron territory. Wait, did I just say that?

 

Pos

Age

NHL

Yrs

Team

GP

Avg

GP

G

A

Pts

Avg

P

PPG

Pace

GW

PPP

PPTOI

%PP

%TOI

Shots

+/-

PIM

D

28

5

VAN

3

38

2

2

4

3

1.33

109

1

1

02:06

25.9

23.6

8

3

19

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks to his combined scoring production and penalty minutes, he skyrockets near the top of the RotoRanker.

 

Rank

Player

Pos

Team

G

A

+/-

PP

Pnts

PIM

Shots

Score

2

ROME, AARON

D

VAN

15th

36th

21st

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102nd

3rd

81st

258

 

What a fantasy behemoth! Pick him up immediately! Right?? WRONG… he's a heathen and should be sent to the brazen bull.  For the past 3 years, he's averaged 38 games played while sporting a nuclear hot 3 points per season. You've gone flaccid now haven't you. It's ok… that's what these vixens do. They get you all hopped up on goof balls and the next thing you know, you're handcuffed to the bedpost and your wallet and capri pants are gone. What?? I Some guys like capri pants ok? BACK OFF!

 

What I do find interesting is that his AHL career scoring point-per-game is quite respectable. Whaaa? That's right, he was actually a competent scoring blueliner.  Don't believe me? Look at this masterpiece table:

 

League

GP

AVG PTS

AVG

PTS/PG

NHL

131

2.40

0.08

AHL

325

18.43

0.49

WHL

304

17.22

0.40

 

Well I'll be a blue-nosed gopher.  That's a 40-point AHL scorer if I ever saw one.  But I do stress AHL. He's been abysmal in the NHL; hence the entire point of the article:

 

If you see someone at the top of the charts that shouldn't be there: use Frozen Pool.


With Frozen Pool, your homework is crunched down to mere minutes. Now where were we…

 

Let's see what's going on with his linemates by using the Frozen Pool Fantasy Profiler. Ladies and gentlemen, it doesn't get any better than this:

 

Even Strength Line Combinations

Freq

Line Combination

80.5%

BALLARD,K – ROME,A

14.2%

HAMHUIS,D – ROME,A

2.6%

ALBERTS,A – ROME,A

1.6%

BIEKSA,K – ROME,A

1.1%

BALLARD,K – EDLER,A – ROME,A

 

 

Even Strength Line Production

Pnts

%Total

Line Combination

2

66.7%

BALLARD,K – ROME,A

1

33.3%

EDLER,A – ROME,A

 

Power Play Line Combinations

Freq

Line Combination

42.9%

ROME,A – SALO,S

28.6%

HAMHUIS,D – ROME,A

19%

BIEKSA,K – ROME,A

4.8%

EDLER,A – ROME,A

4.8%

BALLARD,K – ROME,A

 

Power Play Line Production

Pnts

%Total

Line Combination

1

50%

HAMHUIS,D – ROME,A

1

50%

BIEKSA,K – ROME,A

 

 

Ohh baby… want a smoke now? Now he's not playing with Edler or anything but he is getting power play time with Hamuis and Salo. Even strength he's on the third pairing with Ballard with good ice time. Not too shabby I must say.

 

While we're on the topic of the Fantasy Profiler…This tool not only gives you a player's scoring but breaks it down into season quarters with his linemates and production breakdown. It's a great way to analyze a player's ebb and flows throughout the year. Did your player have a big dip in production in the fourth quarter? This will show you the answer. It will show not only his performance but chart out his point per game and goal performance during that period.

 

As usual, and by usual I mean the past two weeks, I accompany what I'm talking about with a magical screenshot. Here's a snippet of the Fantasy Profiler in action. It's Jonathan Toews' third quarter from last year.

 

sa

 

It not only charts his points per game and goals, but you can hover over each point and it gives you the opponent, the points he scored in that game and his current point per game during that quarter. Pretty sexy ain't it?

 

Speaking of sexy, there's a couple new tools coming down the pipe. The first one will be released very shortly and will be a very important tool for day traders. No hints just yet. The second is the most ambitious Frozen Pool tool yet. It's still in early development so I'll share more on that in the future.

 

Well that was quite the digression. Back to Rome and the waiver wire.  This is a perfect example of a scoring spike player with absolutely no NHL history of scoring success. What's the problem? Well some players just can't hack it or haven't been given the right chance. With Rome, I'm definitely on the former side of the argument. If you have unlimited moves and a roster spot, might as well ride him. At least you'll get some PIMs out of the deal. In the future, plug in any 'no-name' guy into my bundle of tools and it'll make your life much simpler!

 

Follow me on Twitter @frozenpool for any questions or comments. Ask any question I can't answer and you will be blocked. Ok maybe we can work it out…

 

That is all.

 

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