It’s All in the Numbers Part 1 (West 2012)

Ryan Ma

2012-01-10

Chris Stewart - ICON SMI

 

I'm sure you've heard of the phrase "the numbers don't lie". If you're a dedicated follower of my columns here at DobberHockey, then you're probably well aware of how much I utilize stats to inform me during my decision-making process. For the past couple of seasons, I've been tracking baseline values into forecasting future stats. This week we'll take a look at those values to help us better plan for the rest of this fantasy season.

 

First, let’s clear up some general misconceptions about projections. Here are 10 of Ma's Laws for the second half:

 

1) First of all we need to place a realistic value on overall point production.


Year

# of point-per-game players

# of players > than 80 points

2007-08

23

19

2008-09

20

17

2009-10

21

17

2010-11

15*

9

2011-12

15**

17**

 

*includes Sidney Crosby and Derek Roy

 

** does not include Crosby

 

So, just by looking at the table above, realistically there's roughly 20 or so players that will finish at a point-per-game pace, and probably around 17-19 that will tally more than 80 points. If you break it down to a standard 12-team league, that's roughly one, maybe two, per team. If you're expecting three or four, you either have one hell of a team or you're dreaming.

 

2) Ice-time plays a huge factor in point production.


Of the nine players that hit the 80-point plateau last season, all of them are essentially top-line and top-PP "household" names. As a group they averaged 20:07 overall and 3:52 with the man advantage per contest, so unless they're remotely close to those numbers, don't expect miracles.

 

rm