Advancers and Decliners

Ryan Ma

2012-01-17

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Based on last week's articles, if ice-time and SOG are any indicators of fantasy success, this week's column will be a good complement in identifying a few trends moving forward. We'll take a look at several advancers, as well as decliners out West to help you get through that mid-season lull.

 

 

First off, a bit more of the "mathy" stuff from last week.

With all of the teams playing their complete complement of first half games, I had a chance to interpret some of the data.

The first thing that I looked at was whether or not there was a correlation between point production to SOG and TOI. This is what I found.

 

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For those of you who aren't well versed in statistics, Correlation Coefficient is a measure of the strength of the linear relationship between two variables (Lehman's terms: basically how closely related is one factor to another). The closer the number is to 1, the stronger the relationship, the closer the number is to 0, the weaker the relationship. So as you can see by the pictures above, there's a pretty strong relationship between the three variables of SOG, TOI and point production.


Fantasy relevance: If you're looking for a quick way to identify upcoming riser or fallers then take a strong look at TOI and SOG, as they'll essentially tell you how the point production is going to react.


Advancers


Viktor Stalberg – LW – Chicago – 13% Yahoo! owned

The biggest beneficiary of the Patrick Sharp wrist/hand injury has been Stalberg. In the last three contests, he's seen his ice-time jump to 17:34 per game, while spending 89.7 percent of his overall ice-time alongside both Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. He's also seen his SOG per game rate increase to a whopping 4.67 per contest. The only drawback is that he's seeing zero PP TOI, so don't expect anything productive from that perspective. With Sharp probably out until the ASB or slightly beyond, look for Stalberg to continue to produce.


Mike Fisher – C – Nashville – 10% Yahoo! owned

The "offense by committee" in Nashville is beginning to sort itself out, with