Marian Gaborik vs. Alexander Semin

steve laidlaw

2012-01-18

as

 

Gaborik vs. Semin: I am going to let you guys in on a little secret; I loathe Band-Aid Boys. What's the use in owning a player who could, at any moment, spontaneously combust? Sure, anyone could go out for an extended period in today's "Noggin Hurts League" but there is still something off-putting about knowing that there is a high probability a player will miss 20+ games. With Band-Aid Boys it is basically a coin flip. Heads you get Jekyll, tails you get Hyde.

 

My strategy to deal with Band-Aid Boys is to look for value. If a Band-Aid Boy falls too far in the draft or is getting sold for cheap then I like to treat them like a longshot bet. I invest on the cheap with say a mid or late pick knowing that if it pays off I have myself a golden ticket. If things go south, no harm done but if things go well then I start looking to hedge. Why? Because the difference between a gambler and an investor is that the investor consistently makes money. He makes the smart play. If there is value in a longshot then bet the longshot but the longshot can still fail. At a certain point it pays to hedge and guarantee a profit. You may not make yourself as much money (or in this case fantasy production) by hedging but you will prevent yourself from losing it all if your longshot eventually loses (or in this case gets hurt). Why get greedy hanging on for the huge payday when you can instead reward yourself with guaranteed (or as close to guaranteed as you can get in fantasy hockey) profit.

 

So how do we hedge in fantasy hockey? You probably know this as selling high. When a player over-performs his projected pace, you want to sell high before the market corrects itself. Similarly with Band-Aid Boys, if one stays healthy for a while you'll want to sell him high and grab a more durable player or at the very least trade him for another long shot and then some.

 

Let us now look at two different Band-Aid Boys and evaluate how we should handle their situation. We've got Marian Gaborik vs. Alex Semin. I wouldn't be surprised if one or both of them are hurt by the time you finish reading this Cage Match.

 

Let us first take a look at which one of these guys is the stronger asset, and more over, which one is the least fragile. Let us look to the patented three-year average chart with the caveat that we know these totals will be drastically low. They are Band-Aid Boys so these averages will include both Jekyll and Hyde. Rather than totals, focus on per-game averages. Here is the tale of the tape:

 

GP

Goals

Assists

Plus/Minus

PPP

PIM

SOG

Gaborik

51.7

25.7