March 25, 2013

Dobber Sports

2013-03-25

The DobberBaseball Fantasy Guide is fully updated through Sunday

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Some more morning notes:

This Ilya Kovalchuk shoulder injury (2-4 weeks) is perfect for Matt D’Agostini. I think he’s worth picking up now, as all he needed was one spot to open up in that top six. Now he’s got it.

Bruce Garrioch reports that Craig Anderson stuck around after practice for some extra shots. Next game?

Rumors a-flying that the Maple Leafs have recalled Jesse Blacker, who has yet to make his NHL debut.

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One thing I forgot to mention, but meant to, with regards to the Dvorak signing, is the risk of Emerson Etem being sent back down.

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Finally – Michael Frolik  will get a trial on the first line. I’ve never seen a coach take two years to try a skilled player on the top line before. Situation definitely bears watching, if Frolik can remember how to play that kind of game.

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My first concern with the firing of Guy Boucher was for the youngsters. Players who aren’t established in their NHL roles tend to be the most affected by events – injuries, line changes, coaching changes, trades, etc. It’s especially worrisome if they are doing well. So to me, I’m watching Alex Killorn, Tyler Johnson and Cory Conacher… and to a lesser extent Ondrej Palat. But for now, the interim coach is rolling with the same game plan, looking at the ice time. Killorn was up over 19 minutes, Conacher and Johnson were up over 14 and Palat was around 13. So far so good. Conacher scored Sunday, too.

And as a sidebar, Boucher obviously loved the offense this year so it behooves fantasy owners to see him successful. He wasn’t, so that’s a blow to offensive NHL styles. With the talent that the team has on the way, I hope the next coach lets loose.

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Tobias Enstrom returned for the Jets Sunday and scored. He scored and played 23:40. And despite his return, Grant Clitsome still played 25:22. I had actually dropped him before the game, assuming that his production was toast now. He didn’t get any points, so I could still be right on that one.

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The Penguins have won, what, 11 games in a row? No need to rush Evgeni Malkin back. He’s saying outright that he’ll return when he’s 100% and not a moment sooner. The team keeps winning, so he’s in no rush. If he owned himself in a fantasy league…then maybe he’d rush ;)

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Cedrick Desjardins has lost all three games he’s played this year. He hasn’t been lights out, but he hasn’t been horrible either. With the Lindback injury, Desjardins will get plenty of chances. But he blows it too badly, the Lightning may look to Riku Helenius. He may be worth an early bid in some leagues.

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What I love about PA Parenteau – he doesn’t get hurt (knock on wood). Two-and-a-half seasons, three games missed. And I believe one of them was a healthy scratch. With 31 points in 31 games, he’ll be one of those “Andrew Brunette” types, but better. The guy you can count on for five or six years, never getting hurt, and bouncing between 60 and 80 points.

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I made a move in one of my keepers. Well, a couple of keepers actually, but this one has more riding on it so I’ll write about this one. I’m winning, slim margin. I have Mike Smith and Craig Anderson – one is struggling and one is on the IR. I have Devan Dubnyk and I secured Kevin Poulin as a No.4 goalie. But if I want to increase the margin, I need to upgrade Dubnyk. So I was able to trade Dubnyk and Boedker, plus a third-rounder (13-round draft, so that’s a good pick)… for Sergei Bobrovsky and Joel Ward. Ward was a psychological addition. I don’t need him, nor do I really want him. But adding him in the deal helps the other GM – perhaps – subconsciously believe he’s getting something for his waiver fodder.

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Cory Schneider has won four in a row and has allowed just five goals in that span. This is what Canucks’ brass wanted in the first place, as it would free them up for the Luongo trade. Any Luongo trade, I feel, will bring them a really good backup in return – ideally one with an expiring contract so that they have no issues with Eddie Lack making the jump next year.

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Ryan O’Reilly has 11 points in his last 10 games. I stand corrected on that guy. But then again, the big contract plays a huge role in deciding his, um, role. If he’s making $3 million per year, he’s a third-line checker with upside, like a Jordan Staal was. If he’s making $5 million per year, then he’s on a scoring line, no ifs ands or buts.

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Roman Cervenka scored twice last night for the Flames. When they move Jarome Iginla, they will probably be admitting a rebuild. In which case, they will be spending a lot of ice time studying who they have and what to do with them in the offseason. Especially true for players who have not had a lot of exposure to the NHL. That’s my round-about way of hinting that I think Cervenka will start to see more ice time as the Flames fall out of the playoffs.

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Regarding the Bjugstad vs. Shore debate – I think Bjugstad should step in next season for the Panthers and he’ll make his mark. But Shore has an ‘it’ factor that can’t be measured. He rises above expectations. Assuming full health, which is a huge variable that derails a lot of players with this overachieving ‘it’ factor, Shore will persevere. Examples of players who had or have this trait – Derek Roy, Cam Atkinson, Cal O’Reilly – I give one example in each category. The first is a player who played his way onto the Sabres as a rookie and wouldn’t let them send him down. The second is the same…but was derailed by an injury. As long as no other semi-serious injury happens within 18 months, Atkinson should bounce back. And the final category is where an injury did destroy things for a player. Cal O’Reilly was leading the Predators in scoring. Then he broke his leg. He couldn’t get back into the lineup at the end of the season when he returned. Wasn’t the same since.

Shore has that trait. That’s why I like him over Bjugstad. Little to do with talent, lots to do with drive – when he gets a foothold, he won’t give it up.

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Jacob Markstrom gave up just one goal for the third straight game. Last night he got the loss though, and the Isles scored two empty netters.

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Interesting – Anaheim has signed Radek Dvorak, but he must first clear waivers. Why would any team in the West let him slip through waivers? If only to screw with the Ducks. He had seven points in seven games this year for Davos of the Swiss League and he had 21 points in 73 games last year for Dallas.

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Alex Ovechkin has seven points in his last three games. With that market correction (and Backstrom’s) now well underway, Mike Ribeiro‘s market correction (in the opposite direction) is also creeping along. Still a great year for Ribeiro, but now is the time to sell high.

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Eric Fehr left the game Sunday with an injury. He had been pointless in 10 games.

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Crazy fight, this one – Tootoo vs. Beleskey:

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Look at Mikko Koivu thread the needle here:

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