April 03, 2013

Dobber Sports

2013-04-03

Welcome to Deadline Day 2013! How close were we to not having this day? Remember that lockout thingy?

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Wade Redden to Boston for a seventh rounder that becomes a sixth rounder if he plays one playoff game. Hopefully Boston can somehow keep both Redden and Chara #2005Tweet

Phoenix also sends Matt Lombardi to Anaheim for Brandon McMillan

Where it all began – New Jersey has acquired their former prospect… Steve Sullivan from Phoenix for a seventh rounder.

Ryan O’Byrne from Colorado to Toronto for a draft pick

Raffi Torres to San Jose for a third rounder.

Blake Comeau to Columbus for a fifth rounder.

Some huge news could be on the way, per TSN…

1. Marian Gaborik to Columbus for Derick Brassard and John Moore, now official

2. Matt Hackett and Johan Larsson to Buffalo for Jason Pominville

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Philadelphia has acquired Steve Mason from Columbus. Dear Flyers’ fans – I am so sorry about your season, and your day. If there’s anything I can do…

Per TSN – Ben Bishop has been traded to Tampa Bay for Cory Conacher and a fourth rounder

Big news out of Florida – Michael Russo reports that Nick Bjugstad has signed a pro contract with the Panthers. No college for him next year and we should get a look at him this month. He joins Trouba (noted below) as two great prospects I look forward to seeing shortly.

Winnipeg has claimed Mike Santorelli off of waivers.

The Penguins have acquired Jussi Jokinen from Carolina for a draft pick.

Jeremy Rutherford reports that Ken Hitchcock put TJ Oshie’s injury at “week to week”

Sharks acquire Scott Hannan from the Preds for a draft pick (conditional seventh).

Oilers acquire Jerred Smithson from the Panthers for a draft pick (thought to be a fourth).

First deal of the day – Boston sends Max Sauve to Chicago for Rob Flick. Woo hoo!

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Keith Yandle’s name being bandied about this morning. That would make the entire day – rumor has Phoenix asking for Sean Couturier. As with all rumors, bet on this not happening and then love it if it does.

Joni Pitkanen’s injury noted below that takes him out for the year – a broken heel.

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‘Always Believe in the Big 3’, I added to my ramble on that below

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I won’t be breaking trades. Never claimed to. But I will be the best at giving you fast, solid analysis of each trade from a fantasy hockey standpoint. As I have for you every year for the last seven.

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What we’re watching for today:

Ryane Clowe to Vancouver, Philadelphia, Minnesota or New York?

Miikka Kiprusoff or Roberto Luongo to Toronto or Chicago?

Mark Streit on the move?

Other names – Ales Hemsky, Steve Ott, Mikhail Grabovski, Jason Pominville, Drew Stafford, Dan Boyle, Ben Bishop, Ryan Miller, Mike Ribeiro, Mike Cammalleri and Ryan Whitney.

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A minor deal yesterday evening – the Kings trade Drewiske to Montreal for a fifth rounder. Drewiske became expendable when they acquired Regehr.

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DobberProspects will have the profiles of any fantasy relevant prospect who is traded ready with an update. So check out that site throughout the day and follow DobberProspects on Twitter (Brendan Ross and I run that account).

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Some great feedback in my Jaromir Jagr trade impact analysis, with several people arguing that the inconsistent Nathan Horton will be removed from the second line and Jagr will replace him. And it will be Horton who is stuck on the third line. They have a right to their opinion. I stand by mine. And here is why:

Jagr has 26 points in 34 games. But – 22 points in his last 33 games. That’s the stat I will go with, which is an underwhelming stat. He’s also averaging 18:18 per game but it’s actually more like 19 minutes per game when you factor in the game he left early on with a groin injury. Will he get that in Boston? Nope. He won’t even get 18 minutes. And 17 will be a stretch, but let’s say 17 minutes. Will he get 3:22 in PP time the way he is in Dallas? NO! The Top forward in Boston for PP ice time is Krejci at 2:23. So Jagr’s PP time is down by a minute at best. His ice time will be down, his PP time will be way down, and when his production drops accordingly he’s out of the top six – assuming he gets into the top six in the first place.

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Winnipeg’s star prospect Jacob Trouba has turned pro, signing a contract with the Jets. He is one to watch, and is a must own in keeper leagues.

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Oh, also there were hockey games played last night.

Marc-Andre Bergeron was traded to the Hurricanes for Adam Hall and a seventh rounder. Hall was claimed from Tampa off waivers, so Carolina gave TB their own guy back and got a PP QB out of it. The reason for the deal? Joni Pitkanen is out for the season. Well, not really. I have no idea why they brought in Bergeron – but good thing they did because Pitkanen is actually out for the season. More on that later.

Bergeron has a habit of impressing his new team. A lot. The exception being Anaheim. But otherwise, he goes to a new team he often posts decent numbers. Then he wears out his welcome because he is so one-dimensional. But as far as the stretch drive goes – he’ll help your fantasy team, no question. With 13 games left I wouldn’t be surprised if he got 10 points. He assisted on a power-play goal last night and logged over 21 minutes of ice time.

As for Pitkanen, he left the game last night after crashing into the boards. Video below. Hybrid icing anyone?

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Jarome Iginla scored his first goal as a Penguin. He played with Neal and Malkin, but Kunitz picked up the assist on the PP goal. Tyler Kennedy saw some action in Crosby’s place at center. That’s an experiment doomed to fail. I’d try Sutter or Jeffrey there over him. Doesn’t look like the Pens will do that.

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Mike Green has quietly picked up five points in his last three games. His numbers are quickly turning around – your ‘buy low’ window has closed, unless his owner is panicked about his injuries.

And Alex Ovechkin has 34 points in his last 28 games. Always believe in the Big 3. No matter what.

‘Always Believe in the Big 3’, to respond to comments wondering why I have Ovechkin fourth – my keeper league rankings not only track a player’s long-term upside, but also his immediate return… as well as his perceived value by other GM’s. I may feel that a player should be 50th, but perhaps he’s 40th because he gets a bit of a bonus for what fantasy GM’s think of him. Right now, the consensus among millions of GM’s is that they would rather own Steven Stamkos. I would not. But if Stamkos currently holds more value – he currently holds more value. Whether you or I like it or not. I hope this clarifies the issue, and sorry for the confusion.

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The flavor of the month in Nashville is Taylor Beck. The rookie has six points in eight games, including four in his last four and his ice time was 17:23 last night. The Preds are starved for offense, so as usual Barry Trotz leans on a new mix of players. Name one Predator forward on the roster or IR who has not posted a strong 10-game run at some point in the last three years. They all do. They all convince you that they could be 65-point guys. But every one of them become 40- to 50-point players or worse. It’s like a freakin’ conveyor belt. Anyway, ride the Beck Express as long as you can.

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T.J. Brennan picked up two points last night and has four in eight games with the Panthers. Three of those points came on the power play.

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Cory Conacher has six points in his last 16 games. Alex Killorn has 10 in his last 16. So what should you do? To me it’s not a big enough differential to warrant dropping Conacher, but if you’re in a one year league – Killorn is a safe pick for at least five points in the final 13 games. His range is probably five to 10 points. Conacher’s range is three to 12. A lot more fluctuation there. In a keeper league there is no question that you go with Conacher though.

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Interesting AHL stats, as the junior players join the ranks:

Reid Boucher has four points in two games for Albany. His fantasy profile is here.

Ryan Strome – two points and plus-2 in his AHL debut. His fantasy profile is here.

San Jose prospect Matt Nieto turned pro and in his first game he picked up an assist with three shots for Worcester. His fantasy profile is here.

In four games with Grand Rapids, Calle Järnkrok has zero points and plus-2, four shots.

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Pitkanen injury:

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Matt Duchene end to end:

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UPCOMING GAMES

Apr 26 - 19:04 WSH vs NYR
Apr 26 - 19:04 NSH vs VAN
Apr 26 - 22:04 COL vs WPG
Apr 26 - 22:04 L.A vs EDM

Starting Goalies

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ALEX VLASIC CHI
STEVEN STAMKOS T.B
JAKE GUENTZEL CAR
QUINTON BYFIELD L.A
SEBASTIAN AHO CAR

Top Goalie Profile Views

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STUART SKINNER EDM
THATCHER DEMKO VAN
FREDERIK ANDERSEN CAR
ILYA SOROKIN NYI
IVAN PROSVETOV COL

LINE COMBOS

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22.8 RYAN O'REILLY GUSTAV NYQUIST FILIP FORSBERG
16.9 COLE SMITH KIEFER SHERWOOD MICHAEL MCCARRON
15.7 JASON ZUCKER COLTON SISSONS ANTHONY BEAUVILLIER

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