April 28, 2013

Dobber Sports

2013-04-28



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Angus here – stellar debut today from Thom Drance – and my fantasy mailbag is open for a few days.


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Buy the Playoff Draft List here. Updated through this morning – expect an update this evening after the match-ups are finalized, and any key injury notes will be updated through Tuesday. Basically, download the list again when you are ready to finalize your own list.


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Hey Dobber Hockey readers. I’m Thomas Drance and I’ll be taking over the Sunday ramblings slot around here going forward. I’m really excited to be joining the team, I’m a long-time reader of the site, I use the Frozen Pool tools all the time in my work and I’ve been working with Jeff Angus over at my most regular haunt CanucksArmy.com for the past couple of years. So, yeah, in terms of my credentials I’m the managing editor over at CanucksArmy.com, I write a weekly hockey column for Vice Canada, and you can also find my writing frequently at Canucks.com and at the Sporting News (TSN.com – the #1 name in hockey!).


In the past I’ve covered games for the Vancouver Province and I covered the 2012 NHL Draft for the Vancouver Sun as well. So that’s my Coles Notes writing resume, but really I’m just a guy who writes math-y fancy-stats takes about the Canucks while getting myself out to a variety of Ontario rinks as often as my schedule will allow to cover games. I also like dark beer and hot sauce.


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The big news on Saturday night in the hockey world? Joe Nieuwendyk is out as Dallas Stars General Manager, and Jim Nill – long time Red Wings assistant General Manager – will replace him. Nieuwendyk seemed to me to be improving as a General Manager after a rocky start to his tenure. I for one really liked what he did at the trade deadline in stockpiling puck-moving defensive prospects, loved the Ribeiro trade (Cody Eakin is a stud) and think he nailed the Radek Faksa pick. Ultimately when you’re the General Manager of a club that’s perpetually hovering in the no-man’s land between the draft lottery and the postseason, and you’ve got a trade like the Neal and Niskanen for Goligoski debacle in your rearview mirror, you’re in a vulnerable spot.


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The New Jersey Devils, one of the best puck possession teams in the Behindthenet era to miss the postseason, closed their season off with a richly deserved blowout loss to the Rangers. Johan Hedberg played really well to keep it close (forget the save percentage, the Devils were bleeding scoring chances against), but the Rangers were far and away the more motivated club on Saturday afternoon, and that showed up on the score sheet.


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       Though Ryan Callahan scored a short-handed goal, New York's special teams play continues to underwhelm. In particular the power-play was bad again on Saturday afternoon, actually it was awful. In fairness, New Jersey's penalty-killing has been dynamite all year long even though their Penalty-Killing percentage this past season was dismal. Fact is, a lot of that was goaltending, and the Devils were a stupendous shot-preventing club at four-on-five all season long…

      

      Still, with a stable of talent including Rick Nash, Derek Stepan, Callahan, Brad Richards and Michael Del Zotto it makes no sense to me that the Rangers can't put together a quality first unit. They've generated shots at a woeful rate all season and Saturday wasn't any different, as they took zero power-play shots in well over eight minutes of power-play ice-time (though they did hit a post on an extended five-on-three, I guess). Tortorella was resting his top-players late in the game but still, obviously that's not going to get it done in the postseason.


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       One Devils skater who had a pretty solid outing, in a losing effort at the end of a disappointing season, was forward Dainius Zubrus. The pending unrestricted free agent battled all afternoon against New York's top-six and came out ahead for the most part (though he finished with a negative goal differential). Zubrus has done that all season long, but the results haven't been there and I've got to say: I kind of feel bad for the guy.


      Consider that in a contract year (following a really strong performance for the Devils during their cup run a season ago) Zubrus dealt with injuries and really ugly percentages. To make matters worse, the big bodied defensive forward also turns 35 fifteen days before July 1st. So any team that wants to sign Zubrus is going to have to ink him to one of those risky 35+ contracts (unless the Devils extend Zubrus themselves or trade his rights during the postseason), which probably puts a crimp into Zubrus's agents plan of helping his client smell even more like the vault. Then again, I can't name a team that couldn't use a guy like Zubrus on their roster, so perhaps it won't matter but I’d bet his untimely birthdate costs him a year off his next contract…


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       Just some lovely team passing, and an absolutely filthy setup from Zuccarello on Rick Nash's second goal of the game. Highly recommend you watch this one.


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 –       I was really hoping for a Rangers, Penguins first round series (which would have oozed with upset potential), but instead the Rangers will draw the Capitals for a third time in the last few years. Pittsburgh’s matchup isn’t set yet but I’m really hoping they draw the New York Islanders in round one. I’d particularly be interested to watching a Crosby versus Tavares matchup, and Nielsen versus Malkin matchup. I'd expect the Penguins to win in five or six but it would be a fabulous series to watch.


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       Okay you have to check out this behind the back glove save from Marlies goaltender Drew Macintyre:


 

If that’s not the save the year, man, I don’t even know what to tell you.


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I enjoyed a straight up hockey feast on Saturday, but I couldn’t really watch all of the games (there were just too many of them). I had two screens going for most of the night though, and I primarily paid attention to the Ottawa v. Philly game, the Columbus v. Nashville game, the Colorado v. Minnesota game, the Barrie v. Belleville OHL semi-final game six, the Vancouver v. Edmonton blowout, and the Sharks v. Los Angeles game. So most of my points will be from those games.


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Heartbreaking way for Columbus’s season to come to an end. After a gutty stretch run (that saw them go 11-3 in their final fourteen), the Jackets clawed back from a third period deficit for a three-to-one victory in regulation over the Nashville Predators. Bobrovsky was out of his mind again on Saturday night, and Dubinsky showed why he’s been so heavily coveted around the league over the past five years. If you weren’t rooting for good old #Lumbus (yes, I found that hashtag annoying too) to make the playoffs, you probably also hate puppies.


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Let’s just be honest about something: Parise and Suter were and are marvelous additions, but in an 82 game season the Minnesota Wild probably don’t make the postseason. They’ll face the Blackhawks in the first round and if they last more than five games I’ll be very surprised.


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Detroit locked up sixth spot in the West behind a ho hum evening from Pavel Datsyuk (three assists in a must win game, no big deal). That’s going to be a very tough series for the Ducks, and I actually don’t think they’ll come out of the first round. My preliminary pick at the moment is Detroit in six.


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Speaking of Detroit, though his Barrie Colts failed to lock up a trip to the OHL finals on Saturday night, Andreas Athanasiou was borderline dominant on Saturday. He’s been on an absolute tear in the postseason for Barrie, plays major minutes in all situations and is an extremely skilled puck possession player with great wheels. Oh, and he fell to the fourth round in Pittsburgh at the 2012 draft before Ken Holland snapped him up in the fourth round. Looking like another possible steal for the Red Wings…


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Other assorted OHL thoughts:


Aaron Ekblad is a big man and a great skater. More importantly, it appears that his hockey sense is beginning to catch up to his physical tools.  Also he’s not draft eligible until next season, and at times on Saturday (and throughout this semi-final series against a pretty solid Belleville team) he completely controlled play.


Brendan Gaunce is a pretty impressive two-way player with a knack for the big goal (he scored the opening tally and the game-winner on Saturday to keep his team alive). He’s not really clutch, of course, he’s just good at hockey. He’s not fast enough that he’ll push for an NHL job next season in Vancouver unless that facet of his game improves dramatically this summer, but he’s tilting the ice like crazy at the OHL level at the moment.


I’ll be very curious to see where Jordan Subban ends up being selected in the upcoming draft. He certainly passes the eye-test, has a reall good shot and looks like he’ll be able to develop into a damn good power-play quarterback. On the other hand, will his lack of size prevent him from getting into the first round? I’d guess it will.


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Erik Karlsson and Daniel Alfredsson must drink from the same fountain of youth and healing. That Alfreddson, at his age, is able to consistently gain the line with speed and brute force against top-end opposition in the NHL just completely baffles me every time I watch the Senators play. That Karlsson meanwhile, has been able to return to the Senators lineup and play well over twenty-five minutes in his two games back after the devastating injury he suffered back on Valentines day is nothing short of astonishing. Those two should really share their secret with the world at large.


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The Senators are one of the league’s most impressive puck possession clubs. It’s not just the behindthenet data that points to it either, you can see it in the way they control the puck down low against the opposition. Now recall that they’re seriously lacking in bonafide top-end talent without Jason Spezza in the lineup, and it makes their accomplishments on this front doubly impressive. Ottawa’s offense has been snake bit of late, but results aside, their “process” has looked phenomenal the past week and did again on Saturday. They’re going to be a tough out for whomever they face in round one.


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Nail Yakupov plays the game of hockey with joy, and he’s great fun to watch. But I got a good chuckle out of playoff healthy scratch Tom Sestito mocking his over the top “cellys” after he punched one by Dubnyk on Saturday:

 


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No other way to describe San Jose’s performance against Los Angeles on Saturday beyond the word “tepid.” I guess playing David Backes in a seven game series didn’t really appeal to them. Which, yeah, I can’t say I blame them…


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While the matchups in the East await the result of the Ottawa versus Boston game on Sunday, we know what the matchups out West will look like. As mentioned previously I like Chicago over Minnesota, and the Red Wings over the Ducks. I’m not prepared to make a pick in the Canucks versus San Jose series yet. I think I’m leaning towards the Canucks, but San Jose’s special teams advantage might be decisive, and also I want to hear more about Schneider’s injury status. I also don’t think the Kings are a slam dunk pick to come out of the Clutch and Grab championship series against the Blues, in fact, I think I’m leaning towards an upset. 

 

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If Detroit defeats Anaheim in the first round, and I tend to think they will, then Chicago could advance to the Western Conference Final while avoiding any of the real Western Conference juggernauts. Meanwhile the Kings, Blues, Sharks and Canucks will beat each other up for the right to face a probably rested Blackhawks team in the semifinal round. First place in the West this season: a huge advantage.

 

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Henrik Sedin played 0:22 of the Canucks @ Oilers game on Saturday. It preserved his “iron man”  streak but did so in name alone, as everyone knows he didn’t really play. It seems silly that an Iron Man streak can be broken by something like “resting a player to avoid injury in a meaningless game at the end of a season,” and I also think it’s stupid that playoff games don’t count. If you count playoff games, for example, Henrik’s ironman streak would be the longest in the league (ahead of Jay Bouwmeester). In other words, Iron Man streaks are stupid anyway and I can’t really get worked up about Henrik taking a short shift and hitting the showers on Saturday.

 

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Tim Sestito goal:

 


 

 

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