July 14th, 2013

Dobber Sports

2013-07-14

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Between Mikhail Grabovski, Dustin Penner, Damien Brunner, Tom Gilbert and Toni Lydman, you could legitimately build a pretty solid second-line and second-pairing out of remaining unrestricted free-agents.

 

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How much money did Grabovski’s outspoken comments about Randy Carlyle’s level of intelligence cost him in free-agency? Did it cost him an NHL job altogether?

 

I tend to think of Grabovski as one of the top-10 best two-way centreman in hockey, but the fact that it’s mid-July and he’s yet to sign a deal suggests that the industry doesn’t rate him too highly for some reason (be it personal or performance based).

 

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Eric T wrote a great piece on possession stats and free-agency this weekend. Turns out that everyone and their mother’s hairdresser’s milkman wants to sign the guy who produces goals, or punches faces, but the market undervalues possession players. 

 

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Which brings us back to Grabovski. If the industry isn’t rating him highly, they’re wrong. Some team is going to improve enormously upon signing “Grabbo,” and if the Anaheim rumours are true then I’m almost giddy for an Andrew Cogliano, Mikhail Grabovski, Daniel Winnik line. What an ice-tilting group that might be (even playing in front of Anaheim’s underwhelming batch of blue-liners).

 

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Like essentially every other hockey fan, media member, NHL player, or executive – I’m still mentally unpacking the Kovalchuk defection and its possible ramifications for the sport, the league and the Devils organization. 

 

What a shocking development that was, eh?

 

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Obviously the Devils benefit. Yes the organization loses a super elite talent, which is never good. But in terms of taking on a lesser “cap benefit recapture” penalty as a result of Kovalchuk’s enormously controversial contract, and in being freed up from a 77 million dollar commitment at a time when the franchise is in dire straits financially… Well let’s just say there’s a reason or two behind why the Devils aren’t fighting this. 

 

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Great stuff from Cam Charron breaking down the Kovalchuk brouhaha through the prism of salary cap recapture this weekend.

 

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For the league as a whole this is a bit of a black eye, I think. As Greg Wyshynski wrote in his excellent take on Kovalchuk’s Devils tenure and ultimate defection, Kovalchuk is “worth the price of admission.” And now Kovalchuk’s an attraction that will no longer be a part of the NHL’s big show.

 

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For the sport of hockey, however, I’m conflicted as to whether or not the Kovy defection will prove helpful or harmful long-term. On the one hand, players will benefit by having another show in town, so to speak, in the expanding KHL.

 

The KHL remains more of an ambitious Russian social project than a successful business at this point, though it’s quickly transitioning from a top Russian league into a more general european super league. Which is pretty neat.

 

It’s cool that the KHL was able to snag a marquee player of Kovalchuk’s ilk, even if the K is still nowhere close to seriously challenging the NHL’s supremacy as a quality professional hockey league.

 

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What is bad for hockey in general (and for Russian hockey in particular) is the exodus of Russian players from the National Hockey League. As James Mirtle pointed out this week, only 18 Russian born players dressed in more than 30 games last season, a number thats down at least 66% from ten years ago.

 

There are talented players – like Evgeni Kuznetsov or Ilya Nikulin – who might well be, not just regulars, but stars in the NHL. Most North American hockey fans have never seen them play a game. That weakens the NHL’s product, especially since the KHL and NHL have no cross over relationship (or any relationship of any kind beyong casual antagonism).

 

It also weakens, in my opinion, the Russian National Men’s Hockey Team. The fact is, fewer Russian players play in the best professional hockey league in the world and it’s a major reason why I don’t like the host nation’s chances going into Sochi. Y’know, besides their total lack of elite blueliners…

 

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The other big hockey news of the past week: David Perron to Edmonton for Magnus Paajarvi and the thirty-first overall selection in the 2014 NHL Entry Draft (I kid). 

 

I really like this deal for both sides, I have to say.

 

First of all: I’m a big fan of Paajarvi’s game. Paajarvi, if you haven’t seen much of him, is a sizable forward (and a guy who will probably still fill out going forward) with impressive wheels. I hate player comparisons but he looks to me like he’s got potential to be a high-end version of Jannik Hansen, with a lot of defensive value even if his hands never manage to catch up with his feet. Playing for Ken Hitchcock in particular I think his skillset will prove useful, and of course, Paajarvi will cost a lot less than Perron will over the next three seasons.

 

Essentially St. Louis is gambling that Magnus Paajarvi – who is still four years away from UFA eligibility – and a second rounder will provide them with comparable value at a lesser cost than Perron would have over the next three (to four) seasons. It’s a reasonable gamble, especially for a big grinding team like St. Louis that isn’t desperate for the “grit” and “size” factor that Perron brings. Edmonton was desperate for exactly that, of course.

 

I like this deal for the Oilers, however, because in David Perron they got the probable best player in this deal. Perron is a productive forward when healthy – which he generally hasn’t been over the past two and a half years – and has generally helped St. Louis outscore their opposition while driving possession. Yeah it’s a bit easier to “drive play” when you spend the bulk of your ice-time skating alongside David Backes, but Perron’s ability to control the puck down low has impressed me in the past and his presence certainly adds a dimension to the Oilers.

 

So Edmonton is gambling on Perron’s health, and there’s some significant risk there as Perron has struggled with concussion issues over the past few years (though he played all 48 games for the Blues this past season). Meanwhile St. Louis is gambling that Paajarvi can develop into 80% the player Perron is (for 50% of the cost, or so). Overall I prefer Doug Armstrong’s wager to MacTavish’s, but not by much.

 

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Finally, Corey Pronman has unleashed his annual summer “organizational rankings” for NHL prospect pipelines. Interesting read for draftniks and poolies. 

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