Fantasy Hockey Summer Stock Market: Buy Low Options

Dobber Sports

2013-08-20

 

MikaelBacklund USA Today

 

 

Buying low is a great theory, but how can you apply it to your hockey pool?


 

Selling high and buying low is an incredibly successful strategy in any business (and I wrote about a few players to "sell high" on last month). And it is no different in fantasy hockey. At the end of the day, it is all about numbers and statistics, and shrewd poolies should always be looking for ways to maximize the return on assets they own, as well as to pick up undervalued assets on the cheap.

 

Finding assets below market value is a lot easier in theory than in actual practice. If there were no personal biases and all poolies had the exact same amount of information at their fingertips to make decisions, trades would simply consist of moving an asset for an equal asset. The market would take care of any inefficiency. But we grow attached to players. We watch them develop as prospects. We may think their upside is higher than what they have currently shown. Sometimes we unknowingly gravitate towards or away from a certain type of player. Perhaps our competition has more time to do research than we do (or vice versa – we have access to more tools, like the Fantasy Hockey Geek package, than they do).

 

There are many factors to pay close attention to when attempting to find some players who may be valued improperly as your draft date approaches, including: power play ice time, trends, linemates, injury history, training camp competition, the impact of a new coach, and so on.

Today we are going to take a look at a few players you may be smart to "buy low" on this summer.

 

Rick Nash

 

Of the 20 goals he scored in 2013, only three of them came on the power play. Regardless of whom he lines up with (a rejuvenated Brad Richards or an ever-improving Derek Stepan), Nash will see a very offensively-oriented role under new bench boss Alain Vigneault.

 

Don't be surprised to see Nash set some career numbers this year. Vigneault's zone start strategy allowed the Sedin twins to set career numbers later on in their careers than most players do, and he could have the exact same impact on Nash in New York.

 

Matt Duchene

 

Duchene had a strong 2013 and likely has a lot of value in most fantasy circles. Like Nash, he produced most of his goals at even strength last year (15 of his 17). This is an important number to keep in mind, as even a slight bump in PP production could increase his overall totals dramatically.

 

But the real reason why Duchene is undervalued is that poolies may not have an understanding or idea of how good he could become over the next few years. Don't be surprised to see Duchene score 40 this year, and he has the upside for more. He is one of the most dangerous offensive players in hockey, and as the supporting cast around him in Colorado improves, so will his production totals.

 

Brendan Smith

 

Brendan Smith's on-ice shooting percentage of 4.43 last season (the total shooting percentage of all Detroit players when he was on the ice) was the lowest total among ALL NHL defensemen who played at least 30 games.

 

In layman’s terms – Smith had rotten luck