A look at “Confirmation Bias” and why that could negatively impact your drafting.
It’s about 3am. Your online draft has just finished and you are wound up. So you start looking through the other rosters in the pool and as you do you get excited. This year, you’ve got it in the bag. Everyone else should just save the trouble of roster management and award you the GM of the year ahead of time. You send a group email to that effect and go to bed a happy man falling asleep just as Mr. Sun is coming up.
Sound at all familiar? If it does, first of all you need to know you have come to a safe place to confess your fantasy addictions. Yes, you stay up all night and yes, you are reading about fantasy hockey in August. But, at least you are not writing about it in the basement on a beautiful summer evening while trying to give your wife the impression you are doing something meaningful like I am. So, you’ll receive no judgment from the Puck Pastor – only grace.
Second, there is a psychological reason you are feeling over-confident in those wee hours and it is worth understanding so you can improve your fantasy hockey savvy. And really, who doesn’t want more savvy?
Let's begin. In 1968, two Canadian researchers compared the level of confidence felt before and after bets were placed on horses. The study found confidence soared after bets were placed. This increase in confidence is interesting because the horse hadn’t raced yet and the better had no conversations with anyone. In fact, there was no variable present you'd think should lead to increased confidence. The only thing variable was an increase in commitment level. The money on the table meant more confidence.
This study reveals our compulsion to validate the wisdom of our commitments both internally to ourselves and externally to others. This compulsion is so strong once we solidify a commitment in some way (a bet, a purchase, or a relationship) we selectively look for only the data, which affirms our wisdom. This is called a ‘confirmation bias’ and it takes many forms.
- When you are reading reviews of a product after you have purchased it. It’s after the fact, you are only looking for data which confirms your decision.
- When your wife asks you if she looks fat in her new dress. She’s not looking for objective feedback, friend.
- When your friends are divided in their opinions on your new girlfriend. But you put more weight on the positive opinions, dismissing the negative.