Looking Back…at April, 2010 Top Prospects
Darren Kennedy
2013-09-25
Looking through the Rankings archives…back to April 2010 and the fantasy hype surrounding one Nikita Filatov.
The American philosopher George Santayana famously said "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." It is one of the most recognizable quotes in history, asking us to remember the past, or risk making the same mistakes in our future.
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I cannot confirm or deny if George meant this as a founding principle of fantasy hockey (maybe he was concerned with landing a strong keeper centerman in the late 1890s?). It's message undoubtedly rings true in all walks of life. Today I want to apply it to fantasy rankings, and the importance of understanding our errors of yesteryear, so we can aim to value players more appropriately in the future.
Arguably the best pick from 2010 has turned out to be Montreal's Max Pacioretty. He may lack the point potential of a Kadri or Eberle, but he more than makes up for with his shots in multi-category formats. Last year he ended with 39 points in 44 games, to go along with 163 shots (seventh in the NHL). This year he has a yahoo average draft position of 87, which is quite a steal, considering his last two seasons of top 50 production.
Hidden Gems
84. Derek Stepan
97. Marcus Johansson
165. Adam Henrique
184. Colin Greening
Scrolling way down near the bottom of our rankings I was astounded by the number of quality players who have defied the odds and vaulted into fantasy relevancy. Derek Stepan (when he eventually signs) could be playing on the first line in New York where 70 points is a real possibility. 23 year old Henrique is locked into New Jersey's top six for the next half decade and already boasts a 51 point season on his resume.
What struck me the most about reviewing these rankings was the shear randomness with which some players succeeded, while others have yet to reach their fantasy potential. Guys like Mikkel Boedker, Joe Colborne, and Mikael Backlund were seen as top 10 prospects in 2010. In the time since, none of those three has been anything more than a waiver add in most formats.
So what does this mean for our fantasy teams?
The most important reminder is to tread carefully with prospects. No matter how much research and analysis you conduct on players like Drouin, Barkov, or Nichushkin there is no way to know exactly what they will become. The age of these youngsters and inherent lack of sample size at the pro-level makes them a significant gamble, even if it is an educated one.
I don't mean to discourage you from taking prospects. The risk/reward equation for a coveted young player if he blossoms can do wonders for your team, especially in keeper leagues. Just make sure you don't over invest, wooed by offseason articles and reports of a player looking like "The next Stamkos, Hall or Karlsson". There is always a place for prospects, but the downside risk needs to be managed by surrounding them with consistent veterans.
Heading into 2010-11 we had our annual keeper league re-entry draft (everyone kept four forwards, a defenceman and a goalie) at a friend's place in Toronto. A 10 team league, head to head, with multiple categories.
Staring down at my draft board in the second round I couldn't believe my luck – Nikia Filatov had inexplicably gone undrafted through the first 13 picks. That entire summer I had read every conceivable magazine article, news report, blog post, scouting report and hieroglyphic writing I could find about Filatov. Almost everyone echoed the same sentiment – he is a surefire star – he'll score 40 goals in the NHL someday.
Practically shaking with excitement I hit the draft button and the Russian phenom was mine. I glanced around the room and pronounced confidently to everyone in attendance "Well gentlemen, you are totally screwed. I just drafted the next Pavel Bure – in the second round!"….
Well George, consider that a lesson learned.
Darren is a Jaromir Jagr propagandist, fantasy hockey blogger and editor of The Man Advantage. You can follow him @TMA_Hockey_blog