Looking Back…at April, 2010 Top Prospects

Darren Kennedy

2013-09-25

Filatov 

Looking through the Rankings archives…back to April 2010 and the fantasy hype surrounding one Nikita Filatov.

 

The American philosopher George Santayana famously said "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." It is one of the most recognizable quotes in history, asking us to remember the past, or risk making the same mistakes in our future.

 

—- Pick up the 8th annual DobberHockey Fantasy Guide here —-

 

I cannot confirm or deny if George meant this as a founding principle of fantasy hockey (maybe he was concerned with landing a strong keeper centerman in the late 1890s?). It's message undoubtedly rings true in all walks of life. Today I want to apply it to fantasy rankings, and the importance of understanding our errors of yesteryear, so we can aim to value players more appropriately in the future.  

Arguably the best pick from 2010 has turned out to be Montreal's Max Pacioretty. He may lack the point potential of a Kadri or Eberle, but he more than makes up for with his shots in multi-category formats. Last year he ended with 39 points in 44 games, to go along with 163 shots (seventh in the NHL). This year he has a yahoo average draft position of 87, which is quite a steal, considering his last two seasons of top 50 production.

Hidden Gems

84. Derek Stepan

85. Justin Abdelkader

97. Marcus Johansson

165. Adam Henrique

184. Colin Greening

Scrolling way down near the bottom of our rankings I was astounded by the number of quality players who have defied the odds and vaulted into fantasy relevancy. Derek Stepan (when he eventually signs) could be playing on the first line in New York where 70 points is a real possibility. 23 year old Henrique is locked into New Jersey's top six for the next half decade and already boasts a 51 point season on his resume.

What struck me the most about reviewing these rankings was the shear randomness with which some players succeeded, while others have yet to reach their fantasy potential. Guys like Mikkel Boedker, Joe Colborne, and Mikael Backlund were seen as top 10 prospects in 2010. In the time since, none of those three has been anything more than a waiver add in most formats.

So what does this mean for our fantasy teams?

The most important reminder is to tread carefully with prospects. No matter how much research and analysis you conduct on players like Drouin, Barkov, or Nichushkin there is no way to know exactly what they will become. The age of these youngsters and inherent lack of sample size at the pro-level makes them a significant gamble, even if it is an educated one.

I don't mean to discourage you from taking prospects. The risk/reward equation for a coveted young player if he blossoms can do wonders for your team, especially in keeper leagues. Just make sure you don't over invest, wooed by offseason articles and reports of a player looking like "The next Stamkos, Hall or Karlsson".  There is always a place for prospects, but the downside risk needs to be managed by surrounding them with consistent veterans.

Heading into 2010-11 we had our annual keeper league re-entry draft (everyone kept four forwards, a defenceman and a goalie) at a friend's place in Toronto. A 10 team league, head to head, with multiple categories.

Staring down at my draft board in the second round I couldn't believe my luck – Nikia Filatov had inexplicably gone undrafted through the first 13 picks. That entire summer I had read every conceivable magazine article, news report, blog post, scouting report and hieroglyphic writing I could find about Filatov. Almost everyone echoed the same sentiment – he is a surefire star – he'll score 40 goals in the NHL someday.

Practically shaking with excitement I hit the draft button and the Russian phenom was mine. I glanced around the room and pronounced confidently to everyone in attendance "Well gentlemen, you are totally screwed. I just drafted the next Pavel Bure – in the second round!"….

Well George, consider that a lesson learned.

 

Darren is a Jaromir Jagr propagandist, fantasy hockey blogger and editor of The Man Advantage. You can follow him @TMA_Hockey_blog

 

 

Leave A Comment

UPCOMING GAMES

Jan 22 - 19:01 N.J vs BOS
Jan 22 - 19:01 TOR vs CBJ
Jan 22 - 21:01 COL vs WPG
Jan 22 - 22:01 L.A vs FLA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
DARREN RADDYSH T.B
LANE HUTSON MTL
MIKE LUNDIN
KAAPO KAKKO SEA
PAVEL DOROFEYEV VGK

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
JAKE OETTINGER DAL
LOGAN THOMPSON WSH
LEEVI MERILAINEN OTT
IGOR SHESTERKIN NYR
SAM MONTEMBEAULT MTL

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency NYR Players
21.1 MIKA ZIBANEJAD REILLY SMITH WILL CUYLLE
19.7 VINCENT TROCHECK ARTEMI PANARIN ALEXIS LAFRENIERE
14.9 CHRIS KREIDER ARTHUR KALIYEV FILIP CHYTIL

DobberHockey Podcasts

Fantasy Hockey Life: Western Conference Buys and Sells

Victor and Jesse make the rounds of the Western Conference with an argument on opne buy and one sell for each team. We talk Jackson LaCombe, Mason McTavish, Martin Pospisil, Nazem Kadri, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Matthew Savoie, Drew Doughty, Kevin Fiala, William Eklund, Thomas Bordeleau, Shane Wright, Chandler Stephenson, Tom Willander, Jake DeBrusk, Victor Olofsson, Noah […]

Keeping Karlsson Short Shifts – The Wilkes-Jarry Penguins

Elizabeth and Lewis are back to take listeners through a host of power play changes that are giving managers the opportunity to get exposure to great players off the waiver wire, including Philly, Jersey, and Tampa talk. They also cover Jarry’s AHL demotion, Cooley’s ascension to the top-line and powerplay, and injuries to Tavares and Hintz. The duo wrap up with some hot and cold streak deep dives, including discussion of the Red Wings crazy powerplay success in the last ten games, whether Erik Gustafsson is rosterable or an overperforming illusion, Fantilli’s continued success, Merilainen as Hamburglar 2.0, and whether Schenn’s success and Neighbours’ lack thereof are likely to continue.

FIND US ON FACEBOOK