October 23, 2013

Dobber Sports

2013-10-23

Jonas Brodin left Tuesday’s game after taking a puck to the face. Possible broken jaw, but hopefully something not as serious, like a couple of teeth. Marco Scandella picked up his PP time, but I think over the course of a couple of weeks it will be Jared Spurgeon who benefits.

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Kevin Connauton has been one of the better prospect defensemen out there, brought along slowly in the Vancouver system before becoming the major part of the Derek Roy trade last season. He impressed on his new AHL team, picking up six points in nine games and posting a plus-2 rating for Texas. Now 23, he has to clear waivers to be sent back to the AHL, so the Stars are keeping him. The team is still rolling with the same six defensemen though, none of whom are getting injured and the only one who is playing like extreme crap is…Alex Goligoski, the so-called star. And the runner-up to extreme crap is Sergei Gonchar, also a key piece. Dallas scratched Goligoski last year and he learned his lesson, so I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s scratched again sooner or later. But Connauton is going to sit in the press box until then. The situation reminds me of T.J. Brennan last year with Buffalo. They couldn’t play him, they couldn’t send him down, so they kept him in the press box until they traded him to Florida. Therein lies another solution for Connauton owners – a trade.

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Yesterday on DobberProspects I released Part 1 of a two-part series that ranks the NHL teams in terms of their prospects from a fantasy hockey standpoint. Take a look here and see teams 30th through 16th. The Top 15 I hope to get up tonight.

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Between that article and the Arcobello one, that's me actively trying to get more of my own work on my own sites. With Laidlaw and/or Amato taking Tuesday ramblings and site management, I’m freed up more to do stuff like that. Besides the ‘Part 2’ for DobberProspects later today, I have an upcoming article on some slow starters who need to get it in gear.

Here is my THN article from Monday, in case you missed it – 13 players with fast starts on new teams

And here is Amato’s Puck Daddy from Monday.

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Good for Russ Miller. I love when that happens. The guy writes a piece on Frans Nielsen, and then Nielsen goes out and tallies three points. I’m still not convinced he can get 60 points, but my certainty on that is definitely wavering. This is the year he has to do it, because once Ryan Strome gets here, Nielsen’s role would slip to more of a checking capacity.

Honestly, what the hell does John Tortorella see in Mike Santorelli? And I say this and I’m kind of in Santorelli’s corner. Long-time readers will know that when he was in Nashville’s pipeline I was really tooting his horn, wondering why they don't give him more ice time. I thought he could put up points in a second-line capacity and I still think he could be a great third-line, 40-point scorer. But last night he saw 23:26? More than the Sedins? Sure, 2:30 was killing penalties, but even so it’s still 21 minutes. He assisted on the winner in OT and has seven points in 11 games, which is around a 50-point pace. Then again, I guess with two game winners and now an assist on a game winner, Torts thinks he’s clutch. And that OT setup was pretty sweet:

 

 

Santorelli’s ice time won’t be cut anytime soon – Jannik Hansen left the game with an injury that looks long term. Arm or shoulder, holding it and in clear pain.

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With two more assists last night, Mark Arcobello has 10 of them in 10 games. It puts him in a tie for first place among rookies. If you’re worried about the production drop-off when Sam Gagner comes back, he’s starting to ease your mind. If he’s still a point-per-game guy at the 18-game mark, how is Dallas Eakins going to cut his ice time? He’s been Edmonton’s best player this year other than maybe Eberle. His ice time sits fifth on the team among forwards (per game average), but in the last six games his ice time has been Top 3 among team forwards, as he started out with low ice time. I like the outlook, it’s starting to point to the more promising scenario that I outlined in my article on him from last week.

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Two players who just needed to find their groove, but have clearly found it – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Phil Kessel. Don’t be surprised if one or both of them pocket a couple of player-of-the-week awards in the next three weeks.

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Patrick Maroon has points in each of his last two games, but he’s had his share of healthy scratches and that’s what you can expect throughout the season. At each level he plays, Maroon progresses slowly. I believe that he can be, at the very least a Taylor Pyatt or at best a Dustin Penner (the good years). But you won’t see it this year or next. Patience with him. It would shock me if he topped 25 points in either of these first two seasons.

Jakob Silfverberg was stuck on the fourth line, but damn if he’s not way too good for that spot. He looked great all night and by the end he was back up on the second line and on the ice in the final minute when the Ducks needed a goal. I have very little doubt that he will be a star in this league. He’s outplaying his competition right now (Emerson Etem).

Mathieu Perreault has nine points in nine games. I was always high on him. Too high, as accused by some. And I’d continue looking dumb on that call had he stayed in Washington. But on a new team, we’re seeing the ‘upside’ and sometimes that’s all it takes. As long as he doesn’t get derailed by injury he will continue to be solid for the Ducks.

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Tim Thomas was hurt – again – on this play:

 

 

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Brandon Dubinsky is the perfect ‘buy low’ guy. Or rather, he was yesterday. In fact, I went after him in one of my leagues yesterday. The situation was perfect – two bad years, and a weak start to this year…and yet I have confidence that he’ll get 50 points. Maybe 55. But his owner took too long to reply to me. And that’s the main reason I don’t get deals done – slow owners. But I digress. Dubinsky’s two points last night (and plus-3) is just the beginning. He’s just getting his legs now and I think the Jackets on the whole will start winning games more, making Sergei Bobrovsky a nice ‘buy low’ option too.

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Seven shots on goal for Alex Ovechkin gives him 61 on the season, six ahead of Zach Parise for the NHL lead. His two goals give him nine on the year to lead the league. Yes, the Ovechkin of old is back.

 

 

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Craig Smith has 30 shots on goal, tied with Hornqvist for the team lead. But he only has one goal to show for it. These pucks are going to start going in. He already leads the team in assists and plus/minus. Funny enough, seven forwards on Nashville have seen more ice time.

Don’t worry Nashville fans, you only have about four years left on this contract. Viktor Stalberg after six games – zero points and six shots.

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Braden Holtby has faced 121 shots in the last three games, stopping 114 of them. So he’s found his groove. And you were worried?

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Small sample size in each case, but it’s just a hunch – Rostislav Olesz and Bryan Bickell each have points in consecutive games now. I think over the next week or two we’ll see their names on the score sheets quite a bit. A desperation play if your waiver wire is thin and you need help.

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Keith Yandle is off to a slow start and I don’t expect him to reach 50 points this season if he stays in Phoenix. More like 45-47 or thereabouts. If he goes somewhere else, then 55-plus. But in Phoenix, with OEL and Stone cannibalizing his PP time, I don’t see it. As I headed to bed Tuesday night after the second period, Yandle had a point in the game against the Flames.

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Mark Giordano was a late scratch last night. He took a big hit last game. He was in the warm ups, but apparently left pretty early.

A little mixing and matching of line combinations during the Calgary game, as David Jones returned to the lineup. Here is the breakdown of line combos after two periods:

 

16.67%

EV

17 BOUMA,LANCE – 8 COLBORNE,JOE – 21 HORAK,ROMAN

15.28%

EV

47 BAERTSCHI,SVEN – 24 HUDLER,JIRI – 23 MONAHAN,SEAN

11.81%

EV

13 CAMMALLERI,MIKE – 39 GALIARDI,T.J. – 54 JONES,DAVID

10.42%

EV

11 BACKLUND,MIKAEL – 20 GLENCROSS,CURTIS – 54 JONES,DAVID

9.72%

EV

20 GLENCROSS,CURTIS – 24 HUDLER,JIRI – 23 MONAHAN,SEAN

8.33%

EV

13 CAMMALLERI,MIKE – 39 GALIARDI,T.J. – 22 STEMPNIAK,LEE

 

As you can see, the Colborne-on-a-line-with-Cammalleri experiment is over.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Jan 14 - 19:01 DET vs S.J
Jan 14 - 19:01 WSH vs ANA
Jan 14 - 19:01 CBJ vs PHI
Jan 14 - 19:01 TOR vs DAL
Jan 14 - 19:01 PIT vs SEA
Jan 14 - 19:01 BOS vs T.B
Jan 14 - 19:01 NYI vs OTT
Jan 14 - 19:01 N.J vs FLA
Jan 14 - 20:01 NSH vs VGK
Jan 14 - 20:01 STL vs CGY
Jan 14 - 20:01 WPG vs VAN
Jan 14 - 21:01 UTA vs MTL
Jan 14 - 21:01 COL vs NYR

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
MARCO KASPER DET
MATT CORONATO CGY
KAAPO KAKKO SEA
JAMIE DRYSDALE PHI

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
LEEVI MERILAINEN OTT
DUSTIN WOLF CGY
SAMUEL ERSSON PHI
CONNOR HELLEBUYCK WPG
JAKUB DOBES MTL

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency CBJ Players
21.8 DMITRI VORONKOV KIRILL MARCHENKO ADAM FANTILLI
19.1 MIKAEL PYYHTIA KEVIN LABANC SEAN KURALY
18.4 MATHIEU OLIVIER LUCA DEL BEL BELLUZ ZACHARY ASTON-REESE

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