Should Yakupov owners be worried?

Yakupov: Coach, am I playing tonight?

Eakins: You're in Nail…….but first, would you mind telling me now how many goals will be scored against us tonight while you're on the ice………it helps me prepare.

Yakupov: I'm thinking I will go…….just minus one tonight coach.

Eakins: Great, what period are you thinking of gracing us with your minus?

Yakupov: I was thinking my last shift of second period coach, hopefully while we are on power play…..there is nothing like giving up timely short-handed goal to bring us down. But thinking it over more, how about you start me and we just get it over with first shift of game.

Eakins: I like how you think Nail. Good idea, I like a challenge.

Yakupov: You like challenge coach? Is it okay if I go minus two then?

Eakins: No, I already told Dubnyk he could let two soft ones in tonight. But, I'll talk to Kevin and Craig and get back to you on that.

Yakupov: They are busy coach, you have to make decision.

Eakins: Busy doing what??????

Yakupov: Making sure all polar bears are out of city, Bryz is still scared.

Eakins: %*%*&*^%%$^&*&^*&

Yakupov: Thanks Coach.

The Final Straw

 

Yakupov's performance against Toronto in late October has a lot to do with his significant drop in ice time recently.

 

An evaluation of Yakupov's previous six games suggests that the home game against the Maple Leafs is the straw that finally broke the camel's back. Yakupov was minus-four that evening while his TOI was a generous 21:34. Yakupov played superstar minutes and rewarded his coach with a dud performance. If one was to hazard a guess, Eakins wasn't too thrilled about being embarrassed by the team representing his former employer (MLSE) and has since put Yakupov on notice. Since that game against the Leafs, Yakupov's TOI has steadily declined from 21:34 to just 10:54 per game with minimal power play time.

 

Below is a snapshot of Yakupov's most recent six games with an emphasis on the Toronto game from October 29th. Notice the incredible drop in ice time since that game.

 

Last Six Games

 

Date	OPP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	S	PPG	PPP	SHP	PPTOI	%PP	TOI/G	%TOI
Nov 10	@CHI	1	0	1	0	2	2	1	1	0	00:17	16.7	10:54	18.2
Nov 9	@PHI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	01:26	23.4	10:46	17.9
Nov 7	@T.B	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	0	00:00	0.0	11:08	18.6
Nov 5	@FLA	0	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	0	01:04	19.8	12:47	20.6
Nov 2	DET	0	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	0	02:39	44.2	15:06	25.2
Oct 29	TOR	0	0	0	-4	2	3	0	0	0	01:01	50.8	21:34	35.9

 

Rock Bottom

 

Suggesting that the Edmonton Oilers and Yakupov have hit rock bottom is an understatement. The team had high hopes going into this season and Nail Yakupov was supposed to be one of the major reasons for their optimism. The sophomore winger was coming off of a decent rookie season and appeared ready to improve on his first year in the league that saw him in the Calder conversation for most of the year. Yakupov missed the Calder cut, but he finished last season leading all rookies in goals and tied for first overall in points (with Jonathan Huberdeau) – a very impressive accomplishment for a player that received just north of 14 minutes per game.

 

Courtesy of Frozen Pool, here are Yakupov's statistics from 2012-2013 that saw him finish first overall in the rookie scoring race.

 

2012-2013 Regular Season

 

GP	G	A	P	PntPG	Pace	+/-	PIM	Shots	GW	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	PPTOI	%PP	%SH	TOI/G	%TOI
48	17	14	31	0.65	53	-4	24	81	2	6	10	0	0	02:29	43.7	0.1	14:34	23.9

Frozen Pool, check out his rock bottom statistics this season.

 

2013-2014 Regular Season

 

GP	G	A	P	PntPG	Pace	+/-	PIM	Shots	GW	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	PPTOI	%PP	%SH	TOI/G	%TOI
17	2	2	4	0.24	19	-14	8	31	0	2	2	0	0	02:19	44.4	0.6	15:28	25.5

With just two goals and two assists in 17 games and the worst plus/minus in the league – it is hard to believe that Yakupov has been given the opportunity to average over 15 minutes per game with just over two minutes of PP TOI. Sadly, he's managed to post these numbers while playing with quality line mates Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle, and less frequently David Perron. In Yakupov's defense, Nugent-Hopkins is currently sitting at -12 for the year, but most of the negative attention seems to be on the team's most recent number one overall pick.

 

Below are Yakupov's most frequent even strength line combinations this year.

 

Even Strength Line Combinations (2013-2014)

Freq	Line Combination
44.3%	EBERLE,J – NUGENT-HOPKINS,R – YAKUPOV,N
17.6%	NUGENT-HOPKINS,R – PERRON,D – YAKUPOV,N
15.2%	EBERLE,J – GAGNER,S – YAKUPOV,N
12%	ARCOBELLO,M – SMYTH,R – YAKUPOV,N
10.9%	GAGNER,S – SMYTH,R – YAKUPOV,N

This season Yakupov has lined up over 75% of the time with Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, Gagner, and Perron. This is a nice upgrade over the most frequent line combinations from his rookie season which saw him mostly play with Gagner, Horcoff, Hemsky, and Paarjarvi as outlined below.

 

Even Strength Line Combinations (2012-2013)

Freq	Line Combination
36.1%	GAGNER,S – HEMSKY,A – YAKUPOV,N
29.4%	GAGNER,S – PAAJARVI,M – YAKUPOV,N
17.9%	HORCOFF,S – JONES,R – YAKUPOV,N

A decent rookie season to build on, more time on ice, higher quality line mates – the stars were aligned for a solid sophomore campaign. Instead Yakupov has hit rock bottom and his owners are right there with him – wondering if his current situation is going to escalate into a trade or even worse – eventual flight to the KHL. Right now the young Russian's value is as low as it will ever be.

Reason For Hope #1 – The Conclusion of 2012-2013

 

Earlier we focused on Yakupov's most recent six games that saw him score just one goal with a combined minus eight. Before hitting the panic button again, let's take a look at a more optimistic time. Below is a snapshot of Yakupov's final six games from 2012-2013 that catapulted him to the rookie scoring title.

 

Last Six Games

 

Date	OPP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	S	PPG	PPP 📢 advertisement:	SHP	PPTOI	%PP	TOI/G	%TOI
Apr 27	VAN	3	0	3	2	0	6	1	1	0	04:11	66.8	18:47	31.3
Apr 26	@MIN	2	0	2	3	0	4	0	0	0	01:06	55.0	17:08	28.6
Apr 24	CHI	1	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	05:28	68.3	16:37	27.7
Apr 22	ANA	0	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	0	01:45	29.2	16:00	26.7
Apr 21	ANA	0	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	0	02:49	39.5	14:05	23.5
Apr 19	@COL	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	02:51	35.6	15:53	26.5

Yakupov scored six goals and finished plus six in his final three games last year. When young players go through rough stretches like the one Yakupov is going through right now, it is important to remember that the media circus and terrible trade offers will go away after a couple of solid performances by the young Russian. It may not happen this week, but soon Yakupov will have the break out game and the consistent month that will put all of the current negativity to rest.

Reason for Hope #2 – Comparing the Number Ones

 

When comparing the statistics of Edmonton's trio of first overall draft picks, Yakupov's numbers are on pace or close to his first overall predecessors.

 

Here are Taylor Hall's rookie statistics from 2010-2011 which saw Hall play 65 games and finish with 42 points.

 

GP	G	A	P	PntPG	Pace	+/-	PIM	Shots	GW	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	%PP	%SH	%TOI
65	22	20	42	0.65	53	-9	27	186	4	7	10	0	0	44.8	0.5	30.0

Here are the numbers for Nugent-Hopkins during his respective 2011-2012 rookie season which saw him play 62 games and finish with a very respectable 52 points.

 

GP	G	A	P	PntPG	Pace	+/-	PIM	Shots	GW	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	PPTOI	%PP	%SH	TOI/G	%TOI
62	18	34	52	0.84	69	-2	16	134	3	3	23	0	0	03:01	57.4	0.5	17:36	28.9

In his first 65 NHL games, Yakupov has 35 points (19 Goals and 16 Assists).

 

Yakupov's numbers are slightly lower than those posted by Taylor Hall in Hall's first 65 games. However, Hall had the benefit of playing consistently with Eberle as the two have great chemistry. Hall also played an average of 18:12 per game which is over three and a half minutes more than Yakupov's first year TOI of 14:34.

 

In his first season in the league, Nugent-Hopkins had the benefit of playing enormous minutes with Eberle and Hall for a large portion of his rookie campaign. Nugent-Hopkins played an average of 17:36 per game during his rookie year – again three full minutes per game more than Yakupov's TOI as a rookie.

 

With the current situation surrounding Yakupov it is hard to believe he will ever take the next step, but critics also had their doubts about Hall. Heck – take a look at the rookie statistics for these two guys.

 

2009-2010 Regular Season (Tavares)

 

GP	G	A	P	PntPG	Pace	+/-	PIM	Shots	GW	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	%PP	%SH	%TOI
82	24	30	54	0.66	54	-15	22	186	2	11	25	0	0	63.6	0.9	29.4

2008-2009 Regular Season (Stamkos)

 

GP	G	A	P	PntPG	Pace	+/-	PIM	Shots	GW	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	PPTOI	%PP	%SH	TOI/G	%TOI
79	23	23	46	0.58	48	-12	39	181	2	9	17	0	0	02:50	42.0	1.6	14:56	24.4

Yakupov's pro-rated rookie season had him on pace for 53 points last year – which is more productive than Stamkos' rookie season of 46 points. In fact, Yakupov's rookie season is essentially on par with the 54 points that Tavares scored as a rookie. During his rookie season, Yakupov posted a better plus/minus than what Hall, Tavares, and Stamkos did during their respective rookie years.

 

Despite all of the recent negativity, history suggests there are many reasons to hang onto Yakupov or aggressively pursue him in your league before the window closes.

Final Forensics Note

 

Last season Yakupov played over 65% of his even strength shifts with Sam Gagner. Assuming that Eakins reunites them, expect Yakupov's statistics to improve during the first half of the season as Gagner gradually gets better after missing the early part of the year with a broken jaw.

 

Yakupov has only registered 112 SOG in 65 games – averaging less than two shots per game over his short career – surprising stat for a supposed sniper.

 

Yakupov was only minus-four over 48 games last year on a bad Oilers team. Expect to see improvement in his league worst plus/minus while the team adapts to Eakins system.

 

It's doubtful, but if the Oilers end up shopping him, they will showcase him during the latter part of the season with heavy minutes to set up an offseason trade.

 

During the second half of the season, expect a 60 point pace from Yakupov (30 points in the last 40 games).