Looking Ahead: Week Nine

Bob Fisher

2013-11-22

 

PatricHornqvist


Here are some teams to target and avoid for the next week or two, several players to target that may be available in your league as well as teams that play a light schedule.

 

Nashville Predators = Target

 

Games: 6 (5H/1A)

Favorable Matchups:

  • vs. Phoenix – 25th in the league in goals against and on the penalty kill.  11 goals allowed in the past three games.
  • @ Columbus – Bottom five in PK percentage.  Bottom ten in goals against.  Sergei Bobrovsky won the Vezina Trophy the year he never had to face Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Steven Stamkos, Alex Ovechkin, Claude Giroux.  Coincidence that he is struggling this year now?
  • vs. Edmonton – Second worst in GAA.  Playing better lately, but I need to see more before I no longer consider them a good fantasy matchup.

 

The Predators start a string of six out of seven home games between now and early December.  They've won three games straight, scoring 13 goals in those games, all against Original Six teams.  Their next opponent?  The New York Rangers.

 

Philadelphia Flyers = Consider

 

Games: 7 (2H/5A)

Favorable Matchups:

  • vs. NY Islanders – Third worst defensive club in the league, including the worst penalty kill.  12 goals allowed in the past three games.  The team might be better off with Evgeni Nabokov on the shelf, but is Kevin Poulin really the answer?
  • @ Florida – Bottom five defensive team.  16 goals allowed in the past six games.  28th in the standings for a reason.  Tim Thomas has been decent, but not enough.
  • @ Tampa Bay – 16 goals against in the past three games.  Is this just a blip on Ben Bishop's radar or was his first month and a half of the season the blip?
  • vs. Winnipeg – 10 goals allowed in the last two games.  Winnipeg seems to love high-scoring games, which is great, unless you own Ondrej Pavelec.
  • @ Detroit – 12 goals against in the past four games.  The Wings are struggling to score goals but are also struggling to keep them out of their own net.

 


The Flyers have started to turn things around with 22 goals in their last six games, five of which were wins.  I would expect this trend to continue, so if a manager in your league is still iffy on Giroux, or Jakub Voracek or Scott Hartnell are available in your league, go grab them now.

 

St. Louis Blues = Beware

 

Games: 5 (2H/3A)

Unfavorable Matchups:

  • vs. Dallas – Seven goals against in the last four games.  Kari Lehtonen has a 2.08 GAA along with a .931 SV%, both of which are in the top 10.
  • vs. Minnesota – Fifth best defensive team in the league.  Allow the fewest shots against per game.  Josh Harding has been insane (1.48 GAA and .939 SV%).
  • @ Colorado – Fifth best defensive team in the league.  Semyon Varlamov stats have slipped a bit recently but he still sits at 2.23 GAA and .931 SV%.
  • @ San Jose – Fourth best defensive team in the league.  Antti Niemi's stats look pedestrian compared to the other goalies listed here, but a 2.22 GAA and .916 SV% is still pretty decent.
  • @ Los Angeles – Third best defensive team in the league.  Four goals against in the past four games.  Ben Scrivens sits 1st in GAA (1.35), 1st in SV% (.949) and 1st in shutouts (3).

 

The Blues have an extremely tough schedule coming up.  Four of the five starting goalies they are about to face have a save percentage of .931 or better.  The one with a lower save percentage is Niemi.  Goals are going to be hard to come by for the Blues in the near future.

 

Colorado Avalanche = Avoid

 

Games: 4 (2H/2A)

Unfavorable Matchups:

  • @ Los Angeles – See above.
  • vs. St. Louis – Ninth best defensive club.  Fifth fewest shots allowed per game.
  • @ Minnesota – See above.
  • vs. Minnesota – See above.

 

The Avalanche have been a good offensive team so far this year, but with only four games between November 22nd and December 4th, and seeing the above opponents, don't expect them to continue at their 3.24 goals per game clip.

 

 

Possible Pickups

Here's a list of some players, owned in less than 30% of Yahoo leagues, to target for the upcoming Monday to Sunday schedule.

 

Nashville: Patric Hornqvist (19%) – Three points in the past five games is OK, but his 22 shots are more impressive.  If he keeps shooting like this, the goals will come.

 

New Jersey: Dainius Zubrus (1%) – Six points in his past six games.  Lining up with Travis Zajac and Jaromir Jagr right now.

 

Chicago: Brandon Pirri (4%) – Four points in his last six.  Lucked out with Patrick Kane and Brandon Saad on his line at even strength.

 

Boston: Reilly Smith (4%) – Three points in his last three.  Managing some second unit powerplay time right now.

 

Philadelphia: Matt Read (21%) – Three points in his past two games, including two goals and a plus-4.

 

 

Light Day Targets

Want to know what teams to target based on their schedule landing on light days for the upcoming Monday to Sunday schedule?

 

Week: Monday, November 25 through Sunday, December 1

 

Tuesday: 2 teams

Thursday: 4 teams

Sunday: 6 teams

Monday: 18 teams

Saturday: 22 teams

Friday: 24 teams

Wednesday: 26 teams

 

This coming week is unique with American Thanksgiving falling on a traditional busy NHL day.  So because of that, instead we have a heavy Monday, Wednesday, Friday and Saturday schedule.

 

So what teams have a good schedule for the light days?

 

 

Mon

Tues

Wed

Thur

Fri

Sat

Sun

Vancouver Canucks

X

 

 

X

 

X

X

Edmonton Oilers

X

 

 

X

X

 

X

Dallas Stars

 

X

 

 

X

 

X

Ottawa Senators

 

 

X

X

 

 

X

Friday, November 22 to Thursday, November 28

 

 

 

Best Bets

 

 

 

 

 

Nashville (4.36) – 4 Games: NYR, PHX, @CBJ, EDM

 

 

 

Vancouver (4.10) – 4 Games: CBJ, CHI, LA, @OTW

 

 

 

 

Ottawa (3.90) – 4 Games: @DET, @CAR, @WSH, VAN

 

 

 

Pittsburgh (3.83) – 4 Games: NYI, @MTL, @BOS, TOR

 

 

 

Florida (3.24) – 3 Games: @CGY, PHI, NYR

 

 

 

 

 

Steer Clear

 

 

 

 

 

Colorado (1.85) – 2 Games: @LA, STL

 

 

 

 

 

Buffalo (1.94) – 2 Games: DET, MTL

 

 

 

 

 

Dallas (1.95) – 2 Games: @STL, ANH

 

 

 

 

 

San Jose (2.00) – 2 Games: NJ, LA

 

 

 

 

 

Edmonton (2.05) – 2 Games: CHI, @NSH

 

 

 

 

 

Saturday, November 23 to Friday, November 29

 

 

 

 

Best Bets

 

 

 

 

 

Nashville (4.36) – 4 Games: NYR, PHX, @CBJ, EDM

 

 

 

Philadelphia (4.31) – 4 Games: NYI, @FLA, @TB, WPG

 

 

 

Toronto (4.15) – 4 Games: WSH, CBJ, @PIT, @BUF

 

 

 

 

Chicago (4.13) – 4 Games: @VAN, @EDM, @CGY, @DAL

 

 

 

Detroit (4.13) – 4 Games: OTW, @BUF, BOS, @NYI

 

 

 

 

Steer Clear

 

 

 

 

 

Calgary (2.00) – 2 Games: CHI, @ANH

 

 

 

 

 

Florida (2.10) – 2 Games: PHI, NYR

 

 

 

 

 

Colorado (2.71) – 3 Games: @LA, STL, @MIN

 

 

 

 

Los Angeles (2.80) – 3 Games: COL, @VAN, @SJ

 

 

 

 

Phoenix (2.90) – 3 Games: ANH, @NSH, @MIN

 

 

 

 

Sunday, November 24 to Saturday, November 30

 

 

 

 

Best Bets

 

 

 

 

 

Nashville (4.36) – 4 Games: PHX, @CBJ, EDM, PHI

 

 

 

New Jersey (4.31) – 4 Games: WPG, CAR, @CAR, BUF

 

 

 

Chicago (4.18) – 4 Games: @EDM, @CGY, @DAL, @PHX

 

 

 

Boston (4.10) – 4 Games: PIT, @DET, NYR, CBJ

 

 

 

 

Philadelphia (4.10) – 4 Games: @FLA, @TB, WPG, @NSH

 

 

 

Steer Clear

 

 

 

 

 

Dallas (2.10) – 2 Games: ANH, CHI

 

 

 

 

 

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St. Louis (2.70) – 3 Games: MIN, @COL, @SJ

 

 

 

 

Colorado (2.80) – 3 Games: STL, @MIN, MIN

 

 

 

 

Calgary (2.86) – 3 Games: CHI, @ANH, @LA

 

 

 

 

Vancouver (2.89) – 3 Games: LA, @OTW, @NYR

 

 

 

 

Monday, November 25 to Sunday, December 1

 

 

 

 

Best Bets

 

 

 

 

 

Nashville (4.36) – 4 Games: PHX, @CBJ, EDM, PHI

 

 

 

New Jersey (4.31) – 4 Games: WPG, CAR, @CAR, BUF

 

 

 

Chicago (4.18) – 4 Games: @EDM, @CGY, @DAL, @PHX

 

 

 

Boston (4.10) – 4 Games: PIT, @DET, NYR, CBJ

 

 

 

 

Philadelphia (4.10) – 4 Games: @FLA, @TB, WPG, @NSH

 

 

 

Steer Clear

 

 

 

 

 

St. Louis (2.70) – 3 Games: MIN, @COL, @SJ

 

 

 

 

Colorado (2.80) – 3 Games: STL, @MIN, MIN

 

 

 

 

Calgary (2.86) – 3 Games: CHI, @ANH, @LA

 

 

 

 

Buffalo (2.89) – 3 Games: MTL, TOR, @NJ

 

 

 

 

 

Phoenix (2.90) – 3 Games: @NSH, @MIN, CHI

 

 

 

 

Tuesday, November 26 to Monday, December 2

 

 

 

 

Best Bets

 

 

 

 

 

Montreal (4.14) – 4 Games: @BUF, @WSH, TOR, NJ

 

 

 

New Jersey (4.02) – 4 Games: CAR, @CAR, BUF, @MTL

 

 

 

NY Rangers (3.96) – 4 Games: @FLA, @BOS, VAN, WPG

 

 

 

Minnesota (3.95) – 4 Games: PHX, COL, @COL, PHI

 

 

 

 

Philadelphia (3.91) – 4 Games: @TB, WPG, @NSH, @MIN

 

 

 

Steer Clear

 

 

 

 

 

Phoenix (1.91) – 2 Games: @MIN, CHI

 

 

 

 

 

Florida (2.05) – 2 Games: NYR, PIT

 

 

 

 

 

Tampa Bay (2.05) – 2 Games: PHI, PIT

 

 

 

 

 

St. Louis (2.61) – 3 Games: @COL, @SJ, @LA

 

 

 

 

Colorado (2.80) – 3 Games: STL, @MIN, MIN

 

 

 

 

Wednesday, November 27 to Tuesday, December 3

 

 

 

 

Best Bets

 

 

 

 

 

Nashville (4.31) – 4 Games: @CBJ, EDM, PHI, VAN

 

 

 

NY Islanders (4.20) – 4 Games: WPG, DET, WSH, PIT

 

 

 

Montreal (4.14) – 4 Games: @BUF, @WSH, TOR, NJ

 

 

 

 

Washington (4.14) – 4 Games: OTW, MTL, @NYI, CAR

 

 

 

Pittsburgh (4.14) – 4 Games: TOR, @TB, @FLA, @NYI

 

 

 

Steer Clear

 

 

 

 

 

St. Louis (2.61) – 3 Games: @COL, @SJ, @LA

 

 

 

 

Colorado (2.80) – 3 Games: STL, @MIN, MIN

 

 

 

 

Calgary (2.86) – 3 Games: CHI, @ANH, @LA

 

 

 

 

Buffalo (2.89) – 3 Games: MTL, TOR, @NJ

 

 

 

 

 

Detroit (2.93) – 3 Games: BOS, @NYI, @OTW

 

 

 

 

Thursday, November 28 to Wednesday, December 4

 

 

 

Best Bets

 

 

 

 

 

Edmonton (4.05) – 4 Games: @NSH, @CBJ, @DAL, PHX

 

 

 

Montreal (4.00) – 4 Games: @WSH, TOR, NJ, @NJ

 

 

 

 

Philadelphia (3.91) – 4 Games: WPG, @NSH, @MIN, @DET

 

 

 

Vancouver (3.90) – 4 Games: @OTW, @NYR, @CAR, @NSH

 

 

 

New Jersey (3.86) – 4 Games: @CAR, BUF, @MTL, MTL

 

 

 

Steer Clear

 

 

 

 

 

St. Louis (1.76) – 2 Games: @SJ, @LA

 

 

 

 

 

Colorado (1.80) – 2 Games: @MIN, MIN

 

 

 

 

 

Winnipeg (1.90) – 2 Games: @PHI, @NYR

 

 

 

 

 

Tampa Bay (2.00) – 2 Games: PIT, @CBJ

 

 

 

 

 

Buffalo (2.00) – 2 Games: TOR, @NJ

 

 

 

 

 

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