Looking Ahead: Week Nine
Bob Fisher
2013-11-22
Here are some teams to target and avoid for the next week or two, several players to target that may be available in your league as well as teams that play a light schedule.
Nashville Predators = Target
Games: 6 (5H/1A)
Favorable Matchups:
- vs. Phoenix – 25th in the league in goals against and on the penalty kill. 11 goals allowed in the past three games.
- @ Columbus – Bottom five in PK percentage. Bottom ten in goals against. Sergei Bobrovsky won the Vezina Trophy the year he never had to face Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Steven Stamkos, Alex Ovechkin, Claude Giroux. Coincidence that he is struggling this year now?
- vs. Edmonton – Second worst in GAA. Playing better lately, but I need to see more before I no longer consider them a good fantasy matchup.
The Predators start a string of six out of seven home games between now and early December. They've won three games straight, scoring 13 goals in those games, all against Original Six teams. Their next opponent? The New York Rangers.
Philadelphia Flyers = Consider
Games: 7 (2H/5A)
Favorable Matchups:
- vs. NY Islanders – Third worst defensive club in the league, including the worst penalty kill. 12 goals allowed in the past three games. The team might be better off with Evgeni Nabokov on the shelf, but is Kevin Poulin really the answer?
- @ Florida – Bottom five defensive team. 16 goals allowed in the past six games. 28th in the standings for a reason. Tim Thomas has been decent, but not enough.
- @ Tampa Bay – 16 goals against in the past three games. Is this just a blip on Ben Bishop's radar or was his first month and a half of the season the blip?
- vs. Winnipeg – 10 goals allowed in the last two games. Winnipeg seems to love high-scoring games, which is great, unless you own Ondrej Pavelec.
- @ Detroit – 12 goals against in the past four games. The Wings are struggling to score goals but are also struggling to keep them out of their own net.
The Flyers have started to turn things around with 22 goals in their last six games, five of which were wins. I would expect this trend to continue, so if a manager in your league is still iffy on Giroux, or Jakub Voracek or Scott Hartnell are available in your league, go grab them now.
St. Louis Blues = Beware
Games: 5 (2H/3A)
Unfavorable Matchups:
- vs. Dallas – Seven goals against in the last four games. Kari Lehtonen has a 2.08 GAA along with a .931 SV%, both of which are in the top 10.
- vs. Minnesota – Fifth best defensive team in the league. Allow the fewest shots against per game. Josh Harding has been insane (1.48 GAA and .939 SV%).
- @ Colorado – Fifth best defensive team in the league. Semyon Varlamov stats have slipped a bit recently but he still sits at 2.23 GAA and .931 SV%.
- @ San Jose – Fourth best defensive team in the league. Antti Niemi's stats look pedestrian compared to the other goalies listed here, but a 2.22 GAA and .916 SV% is still pretty decent.
- @ Los Angeles – Third best defensive team in the league. Four goals against in the past four games. Ben Scrivens sits 1st in GAA (1.35), 1st in SV% (.949) and 1st in shutouts (3).
The Blues have an extremely tough schedule coming up. Four of the five starting goalies they are about to face have a save percentage of .931 or better. The one with a lower save percentage is Niemi. Goals are going to be hard to come by for the Blues in the near future.
Colorado Avalanche = Avoid
Games: 4 (2H/2A)
Unfavorable Matchups:
- @ Los Angeles – See above.
- vs. St. Louis – Ninth best defensive club. Fifth fewest shots allowed per game.
- @ Minnesota – See above.
- vs. Minnesota – See above.
The Avalanche have been a good offensive team so far this year, but with only four games between November 22nd and December 4th, and seeing the above opponents, don't expect them to continue at their 3.24 goals per game clip.
Possible Pickups
Here's a list of some players, owned in less than 30% of Yahoo leagues, to target for the upcoming Monday to Sunday schedule.
Nashville: Patric Hornqvist (19%) – Three points in the past five games is OK, but his 22 shots are more impressive. If he keeps shooting like this, the goals will come.
New Jersey: Dainius Zubrus (1%) – Six points in his past six games. Lining up with Travis Zajac and Jaromir Jagr right now.
Chicago: Brandon Pirri (4%) – Four points in his last six. Lucked out with Patrick Kane and Brandon Saad on his line at even strength.
Boston: Reilly Smith (4%) – Three points in his last three. Managing some second unit powerplay time right now.
Philadelphia: Matt Read (21%) – Three points in his past two games, including two goals and a plus-4.
Light Day Targets
Want to know what teams to target based on their schedule landing on light days for the upcoming Monday to Sunday schedule?
Week: Monday, November 25 through Sunday, December 1
Tuesday: 2 teams
Thursday: 4 teams
Sunday: 6 teams
Monday: 18 teams
Saturday: 22 teams
Friday: 24 teams
Wednesday: 26 teams
This coming week is unique with American Thanksgiving falling on a traditional busy NHL day. So because of that, instead we have a heavy Monday, Wednesday, Friday and Saturday schedule.
So what teams have a good schedule for the light days?
|
Mon |
Tues |
Wed |
Thur |
Fri |
Sat |
Sun |
Vancouver Canucks |
X |
|
|
X |
|
X |
X |
Edmonton Oilers |
X |
|
|
X |
X |
|
X |
Dallas Stars |
|
X |
|
|
X |
|
X |
Ottawa Senators |
|
|
X |
X |
|
|
X |
Friday, November 22 to Thursday, November 28 |
|
|
|
||
Best Bets |
|
|
|
|
|
Nashville (4.36) – 4 Games: NYR, PHX, @CBJ, EDM |
|
|
|
||
Vancouver (4.10) – 4 Games: CBJ, CHI, LA, @OTW |
|
|
|
|
|
Ottawa (3.90) – 4 Games: @DET, @CAR, @WSH, VAN |
|
|
|
||
Pittsburgh (3.83) – 4 Games: NYI, @MTL, @BOS, TOR |
|
|
|
||
Florida (3.24) – 3 Games: @CGY, PHI, NYR |
|
|
|
|
|
Steer Clear |
|
|
|
|
|
Colorado (1.85) – 2 Games: @LA, STL |
|
|
|
|
|
Buffalo (1.94) – 2 Games: DET, MTL |
|
|
|
|
|
Dallas (1.95) – 2 Games: @STL, ANH |
|
|
|
|
|
San Jose (2.00) – 2 Games: NJ, LA |
|
|
|
|
|
Edmonton (2.05) – 2 Games: CHI, @NSH |
|
|
|
|
|
Saturday, November 23 to Friday, November 29 |
|
|
|
|
|
Best Bets |
|
|
|
|
|
Nashville (4.36) – 4 Games: NYR, PHX, @CBJ, EDM |
|
|
|
||
Philadelphia (4.31) – 4 Games: NYI, @FLA, @TB, WPG |
|
|
|
||
Toronto (4.15) – 4 Games: WSH, CBJ, @PIT, @BUF |
|
|
|
|
|
Chicago (4.13) – 4 Games: @VAN, @EDM, @CGY, @DAL |
|
|
|
||
Detroit (4.13) – 4 Games: OTW, @BUF, BOS, @NYI |
|
|
|
|
|
Steer Clear |
|
|
|
|
|
Calgary (2.00) – 2 Games: CHI, @ANH |
|
|
|
|
|
Florida (2.10) – 2 Games: PHI, NYR |
|
|
|
|
|
Colorado (2.71) – 3 Games: @LA, STL, @MIN |
|
|
|
|
|
Los Angeles (2.80) – 3 Games: COL, @VAN, @SJ |
|
|
|
|
|
Phoenix (2.90) – 3 Games: ANH, @NSH, @MIN |
|
|
|
|
|
Sunday, November 24 to Saturday, November 30 |
|
|
|
|
|
Best Bets |
|
|
|
|
|
Nashville (4.36) – 4 Games: PHX, @CBJ, EDM, PHI |
|
|
|
||
New Jersey (4.31) – 4 Games: WPG, CAR, @CAR, BUF |
|
|
|
||
Chicago (4.18) – 4 Games: @EDM, @CGY, @DAL, @PHX |
|
|
|
||
Boston (4.10) – 4 Games: PIT, @DET, NYR, CBJ |
|
|
|
|
|
Philadelphia (4.10) – 4 Games: @FLA, @TB, WPG, @NSH |
|
|
|
||
Steer Clear |
|
|
|
|
|
Dallas (2.10) – 2 Games: ANH, CHI |
|
|
|
|
📢 advertisement:
|
St. Louis (2.70) – 3 Games: MIN, @COL, @SJ |
|
|
|
|
|
Colorado (2.80) – 3 Games: STL, @MIN, MIN |
|
|
|
|
|
Calgary (2.86) – 3 Games: CHI, @ANH, @LA |
|
|
|
|
|
Vancouver (2.89) – 3 Games: LA, @OTW, @NYR |
|
|
|
|
|
Monday, November 25 to Sunday, December 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Best Bets |
|
|
|
|
|
Nashville (4.36) – 4 Games: PHX, @CBJ, EDM, PHI |
|
|
|
||
New Jersey (4.31) – 4 Games: WPG, CAR, @CAR, BUF |
|
|
|
||
Chicago (4.18) – 4 Games: @EDM, @CGY, @DAL, @PHX |
|
|
|
||
Boston (4.10) – 4 Games: PIT, @DET, NYR, CBJ |
|
|
|
|
|
Philadelphia (4.10) – 4 Games: @FLA, @TB, WPG, @NSH |
|
|
|
||
Steer Clear |
|
|
|
|
|
St. Louis (2.70) – 3 Games: MIN, @COL, @SJ |
|
|
|
|
|
Colorado (2.80) – 3 Games: STL, @MIN, MIN |
|
|
|
|
|
Calgary (2.86) – 3 Games: CHI, @ANH, @LA |
|
|
|
|
|
Buffalo (2.89) – 3 Games: MTL, TOR, @NJ |
|
|
|
|
|
Phoenix (2.90) – 3 Games: @NSH, @MIN, CHI |
|
|
|
|
|
Tuesday, November 26 to Monday, December 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Best Bets |
|
|
|
|
|
Montreal (4.14) – 4 Games: @BUF, @WSH, TOR, NJ |
|
|
|
||
New Jersey (4.02) – 4 Games: CAR, @CAR, BUF, @MTL |
|
|
|
||
NY Rangers (3.96) – 4 Games: @FLA, @BOS, VAN, WPG |
|
|
|
||
Minnesota (3.95) – 4 Games: PHX, COL, @COL, PHI |
|
|
|
|
|
Philadelphia (3.91) – 4 Games: @TB, WPG, @NSH, @MIN |
|
|
|
||
Steer Clear |
|
|
|
|
|
Phoenix (1.91) – 2 Games: @MIN, CHI |
|
|
|
|
|
Florida (2.05) – 2 Games: NYR, PIT |
|
|
|
|
|
Tampa Bay (2.05) – 2 Games: PHI, PIT |
|
|
|
|
|
St. Louis (2.61) – 3 Games: @COL, @SJ, @LA |
|
|
|
|
|
Colorado (2.80) – 3 Games: STL, @MIN, MIN |
|
|
|
|
|
Wednesday, November 27 to Tuesday, December 3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Best Bets |
|
|
|
|
|
Nashville (4.31) – 4 Games: @CBJ, EDM, PHI, VAN |
|
|
|
||
NY Islanders (4.20) – 4 Games: WPG, DET, WSH, PIT |
|
|
|
||
Montreal (4.14) – 4 Games: @BUF, @WSH, TOR, NJ |
|
|
|
|
|
Washington (4.14) – 4 Games: OTW, MTL, @NYI, CAR |
|
|
|
||
Pittsburgh (4.14) – 4 Games: TOR, @TB, @FLA, @NYI |
|
|
|
||
Steer Clear |
|
|
|
|
|
St. Louis (2.61) – 3 Games: @COL, @SJ, @LA |
|
|
|
|
|
Colorado (2.80) – 3 Games: STL, @MIN, MIN |
|
|
|
|
|
Calgary (2.86) – 3 Games: CHI, @ANH, @LA |
|
|
|
|
|
Buffalo (2.89) – 3 Games: MTL, TOR, @NJ |
|
|
|
|
|
Detroit (2.93) – 3 Games: BOS, @NYI, @OTW |
|
|
|
|
|
Thursday, November 28 to Wednesday, December 4 |
|
|
|
||
Best Bets |
|
|
|
|
|
Edmonton (4.05) – 4 Games: @NSH, @CBJ, @DAL, PHX |
|
|
|
||
Montreal (4.00) – 4 Games: @WSH, TOR, NJ, @NJ |
|
|
|
|
|
Philadelphia (3.91) – 4 Games: WPG, @NSH, @MIN, @DET |
|
|
|
||
Vancouver (3.90) – 4 Games: @OTW, @NYR, @CAR, @NSH |
|
|
|
||
New Jersey (3.86) – 4 Games: @CAR, BUF, @MTL, MTL |
|
|
|
||
Steer Clear |
|
|
|
|
|
St. Louis (1.76) – 2 Games: @SJ, @LA |
|
|
|
|
|
Colorado (1.80) – 2 Games: @MIN, MIN |
|
|
|
|
|
Winnipeg (1.90) – 2 Games: @PHI, @NYR |
|
|
|
|
|
Tampa Bay (2.00) – 2 Games: PIT, @CBJ |
|
|
|
|
|
Buffalo (2.00) – 2 Games: TOR, @NJ |
|
|
|
|
|