Is Kyle Turris a top line center?

It was only three weeks ago when people were talking about Kyle Turris' great season.

And why not? Even after a cold streak, his numbers still look impressive. So far, Turris has 22 points, and is only seven points off his career high (set in 2011-12 with Ottawa in 49 games, and matched last year in 48 games).

The former third overall pick in the 2007 draft has been referred to being as good as Patrice Bergeron by at least one Dobber forum poster, and there was even a small debate about whether Turris should be considered for Canada's Olympic team.

Turris started off the season hot, with 18 points in his first 17 games, on pace for 87 points over a full 82-game season. However, in the last 12 games, Turris has four points, a 27 points pace over the same 82 games.

What happened in the last 12 games? And what does the rest of the season hold for Turris?

To see what Turris can do during the rest of the season, we need to look at what he's already done.

As most know, the Turris-Clarke MacArthur-Bobby Ryan line has been one of the best in hockey, and until recently, they've played with each other almost exclusively.  Just look at the 2013-14 season breakdown of Turris' top linemates, according to Frozen Pool.

We have to go down the list quite a bit before we see a Turris line without Ryan or MacArthur. In fact, you have to go to the 22^nd most frequent line before you get to a non-shorthanded line without MacArthur or Ryan.

All that time together is reflected in Turris' line production.

Looking at this list, you can see that Turris has had a lot of his success with MacArthur. Twenty of his 22 points have come with MacArthur on the ice, compared to 15 of 22 points with Ryan on the ice.

But MacArthur is now playing on another line. Coach Paul MacLean is looking to spread the offence around, and used MacArthur on a line with Jason Spezza in Thursday's game.

Here's a look at Thursday's top line combinations for Turris:

Tuesday's game against the Florida Panthers saw the same thing. Turris is no longer playing with the teammate who he had the most chemistry with.

Looking forward, what's more believable? That Turris can be a point-per-game guy, or that he's actually a 27-point guy?

The answer probably lies in between.

Turris has shown some improvement over the last 10 games. In fact, there are signs that his play recently has been better as compared to earlier in the season when he was scoring at slightly over a PPG pace.  

One of the key indicators is faceoffs. While Turris was riding high, he had won 151 faceoffs and lost 176, for a faceoff percentage of only 46.2 per cent. However, since he stopped scoring, he has won 121 faceoffs and lost just 96, for a 55.8 faceoff winning percentage.

He's also been shooting a little more than what he was when he was putting up points. In his first 18 games, he had 49 shots, an average of 2.7 shots a game. In his last 11 games, Turris has taken an outstanding 33 shots, for an average of three per game. And with only two goals in those 11 games, he has a way-too-low shooting percentage of 6.1 per cent in that time. That's Zac Rinaldo territory!

There have only been three games this year where Turris hasn't taken a shot. Overall, his shooting percentage is at 7.4 per cent, which is three percentage points lower than his career average.

Despite his recent troubles, Turris is still seeing plenty of ice time. He averages 18:59 of ice time a game, tops among Sens forwards. About 2:36 of that is on the power play, where he has two goals and seven points.

And he's also playing 2:07 of shorthanded ice time a game, and had already scored a shorthanded goal this year. So he's a consistent threat to contribute in special teams.

When Turris isn't scoring, he's still contributing for leagues who count those categories. These above factors strongly suggest Turris is due for a point-reversal soon.

However, in regards to some of the other categories that may be relevant to your league, Turris may not be contributing much to your season. While he has a plus-seven (but is a minus-four in his last 12 games), he has only 10 penalty minutes (and only two in his last 23 games), 21 hits and 15 blocked shots.

Here's what it comes down to. Turris is not as good as what he showed in the first 18 games. But he's not as bad as he's been in the last 12 games either.

So he's not an elite defensive forward who can score like Patrice Bergeron. More like a Tomas Plekanec: Turris will win 50 per cent of the faceoffs, get 50 points, score 20 goals and net some power play points and may hit 70 points if the stars align. Despite his early scoring run, he's a second-line centre that is improving his faceoff and defensive prowess.

So not elite, but a solid second-line centre.

Previously in Frozen Pool Forensics:

Clarke MacArthur

David Desharnais