Looking Ahead: Week 11
Bob Fisher
2013-12-06
Teams to target and avoid for the next week, as well as several players who may be available.
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Here are some teams to target and avoid for the next week or two, several players to target that may be available in your league as well as teams that play a light schedule.
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Ottawa Senators = Target
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Games: 7 (5H/2A)
Favorable Matchups:
- vs. Toronto
7th worst penalty kill
Most shots allowed per game
37 goals allowed in the past ten games
@ Buffalo
7th worst defensive team
5th worst penalty kill
Second most shots allowed per game
24 goals allowed in the past eight games
vs. Buffalo – See above.
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The Senators start a juicy stretch of games Saturday on Hockey Night in Canada against the Maple Leafs, followed by games against the Flyers and a home-and-home with Buffalo. The Sens have a lot of home games during the month of December, and that home cooking should only help them move up in the Wild Card race and put up points for your fantasy squad.
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Montreal Canadiens = Consider
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Games: 6 (4H/2A)
Favorable Matchups:
vs. Buffalo – See above.
@ NY Islanders
3rd worst defensive team
Worst penalty kill
40 goals allowed in the past ten games
Evgeni Nabokov: 3.30 GAA / .892 SV% / 0 SHO
Kevin Poulin: 3.24 GAA / .887 SV% / 0 SHO
Anders Nilsson: 3.26 GAA / .883 SV% / 0 SHO
vs. Florida
4th worst defensive team
3rd worst penalty kill
24 goals allowed in the past seven games
Tim Thomas: 2.91 GAA / .906 SV% / 0 SHO
vs. Phoenix
6th worst defensive team
4th worst penalty kill
5th most shots allowed per game
31 goals allowed in the past nine games
Mike Smith: 3.02 GAA / .911 SV%
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The Canadiens are on fire with eight wins in their past nine games (and that loss was a shootout loss). Look for that to continue as Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec and David Desharnais keep lighting up opposing goaltenders. Four of their next six games are at the Bell Centre, facing some of the weakest defensive teams in the league.
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Anaheim Ducks = Beware
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Games: 6 (3H/3A)
Unfavorable Matchups:
@ Chicago
6th fewest shots allowed per game
11 goals allowed in the past six games entering last night
@ St. Louis
6th best defensive team
3rd fewest shots allowed per game
15 goals allowed in the past eight games
vs. Minnesota
5th best defensive team
2nd fewest shots allowed per game
Josh Harding: 1.52 GAA (1st in NHL) / .935 SV% (3rd in NHL) / 3 SHO (1st in NHL)
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The Ducks haven't had trouble scoring this season as they average over three goals for per game. Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and by proxy, Dustin Penner, have been lights out, giving everyone flashbacks to the 2007 Ducks playoff run. Their upcoming schedule will prove to be a bit tougher for them to match their current clip. Back-to-back games in Chicago and St. Louis, followed by a home stand with the Isles (that's a good matchup), Wild (another tough one) and the Oilers (a good one) coming to town. Wrap that up by three days off and then a trip to Joe Louis Arena to face the Wings. I won't be benching Perry or Getzlaf, but temper your expectations a little.
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Minnesota Wild = Avoid
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Games: 6 (2H/4A)
Unfavorable Matchups:
vs. San Jose
8th best defensive team
8th fewest shots allowed per game
Antti Niemi: 2.31 GAA / .915 SV% / 2 SHO
@ San Jose – See above.
@ Colorado
4th best defensive team
11 goals allowed in the past six games entering last night
Semyon Varlamov: 2.13 GAA / .933 SV% / 1 SHO
vs. Vancouver
Best penalty kill
7th fewest shots allowed per game
Roberto Luongo: 2.35 GAA / .914 SV% / 2 SHO
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The Wild have struggled to score with only 12 goals over the past seven games (and that includes the four they put up on Chicago last night). Those struggles are going to continue as they have matchups with Columbus, San Jose (twice), Anaheim, Colorado and Vancouver. None of those teams are push overs that give up goals easily, so don't expect the goals for Minnesota to start flowing in.
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Possible Pickups
Here's a list of some players, owned in less than 30% of Yahoo leagues, to target for the upcoming Monday to Sunday schedule.
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Carolina: Tuomo Ruutu (2%) – Has the most coveted position on the Canes roster alongside Eric Staal and newly rejuvenated Jeff Skinner, at all times.
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Ottawa: Mika Zibanejad (6%) – Six points in his past eight games. He's getting prime ice time alongside Jason Spezza and Milan Michalek at even strength and the top powerplay over the past three games.
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Montreal: David Desharnais (10%) – Nine points in his last nine games, including 76 faceoff wins (if your league counts those). Montreal's hottest line right now is Desharnais, Pacioretty and Brendan Gallagher.
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Detroit: Tomas Tatar (3%) – No Pavel Datsyuk, no Henrik Zetterberg, no Darren Helm. That means Detroit will have to rely on their young former Grand Rapids Griffins to lead the charge. Tatar has been up to the task with five points in his last four games.
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Tampa Bay: Tyler Johnson (2%) – Outside of Martin St. Louis, Valtteri Filppula and Teddy Purcell (and injured Steven Stamkos), there isn't much proven offensive talent for the Lightning. Johnson had the most ice time among all Tampa Bay forwards last night in their win over Ottawa, picking up an assist skating with St. Louis and Ondrej Palat. As long as he's skating with St. Louis, he's worth a flier.
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Light Day Targets
Want to know what teams to target based on their schedule landing on light days for the upcoming Monday to Sunday schedule?
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Week: Monday, December 9 through Sunday, December 15
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Wednesday: 6 teams
Friday: 6 teams
Monday: 8 teams
Sunday: 12 teams
Thursday: 22 teams
Tuesday: 24 teams
Saturday: 24 teams
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We continue the Tuesday/Thursday/Saturday schedule with those days being extremely heavy (11 or 12 games on each). Monday/Wednesday/Friday are very light with ten combined games on those three days.
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So what teams have a good schedule for the light days?
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 |
Mon |
Tues |
Wed |
Thur |
Fri |
Sat |
Sun |
Philadelphia Flyers |
X |
 |
X
📢 advertisement:
|
X |
 |
 |
X |
Anaheim Ducks |
X |
 |
X |
 |
 |
 |
X |
Edmonton Oilers |
 |
X |
 |
X |
X |
 |
X |
Los Angeles Kings |
 |
X |
X |
 |
 |
X |
X |
Chicago Blackhawks |
 |
X |
X |
 |
 |
X |
X |
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Friday, December 6 to Thursday, December 12 |
Best Bets |
NY Rangers (4.36) – 4 Games: NJ, WSH, NSH, CBJ |
Chicago (4.31) – 4 Games: ANH, FLA, @DAL, PHI |
Ottawa (4.3) – 4 Games: TOR, PHI, @BUF, BUF |
Colorado (4.24) – 4 Games: @CGY, @VAN, PHX, @WPG |
Boston (4.18) – 4 Games: PIT, @TOR, @CGY, @EDM |
Steer Clear |
Pittsburgh (1.92) – 2 Games: @BOS, CBJ |
Winnipeg (2.84) – 3 Games: @TB, STL, COL |
Florida (2.95) – 3 Games: @DET, @CHI, DET |
Los Angeles (2.97) – 3 Games: NYI, @MTL, @TOR |
Phoenix (2.97) – 3 Games: @VAN, @COL, NYI |
Saturday, December 7 to Friday, December 13 |
Best Bets |
NY Rangers (4.36) – 4 Games: NJ, WSH, NSH, CBJ |
Ottawa (4.3) – 4 Games: TOR, PHI, @BUF, BUF |
Boston (4.18) – 4 Games: PIT, @TOR, @CGY, @EDM |
Edmonton (4.15) – 4 Games: CGY, CAR, BOS, @VAN |
Washington (4.14) – 4 Games: NSH, @NYR, TB, @FLA |
Steer Clear |
Phoenix (2.02) – 2 Games: @COL, NYI |
Minnesota (2.75) – 3 Games: SJ, @ANH, @SJ |
Winnipeg (2.84) – 3 Games: @TB, STL, COL |
Columbus (2.85) – 3 Games: @PIT, NJ, @NYR |
New Jersey (2.9) – 3 Games: @NYR, @CBJ, @PIT |
Sunday, December 8 to Saturday, December 14 |
Best Bets |
Carolina (4.23) – 4 Games: @VAN, @EDM, @CGY, @PHX |
Chicago (4.21) – 4 Games: FLA, @DAL, PHI, @TOR |
Ottawa (4.14) – 4 Games: PHI, @BUF, BUF, LA |
Boston (4.13) – 4 Games: @TOR, @CGY, @EDM, @VAN |
Colorado (4.05) – 4 Games: @VAN, PHX, @WPG, MIN |
Steer Clear |
Anaheim (2.15) – 2 Games: NYI, MIN |
Los Angeles (2.8) – 3 Games: @MTL, @TOR, @OTW |
Philadelphia (2.89) – 3 Games: @OTW, @CHI, MTL |
Edmonton (2.89) – 3 Games: CAR, BOS, @VAN |
Montreal (2.94) – 3 Games: LA, @PHI, @NYI |
Monday, December 9 to Sunday, December 15 |
Best Bets |
Carolina (4.23) – 4 Games: @VAN, @EDM, @CGY, @PHX |
Ottawa (4.14) – 4 Games: PHI, @BUF, BUF, LA |
Montreal (4.14) – 4 Games: LA, @PHI, @NYI, FLA |
Detroit (4.09) – 4 Games: @FLA, @TB, PIT, TB |
Tampa Bay (3.95) – 4 Games: @WSH, DET, @NJ, @DET |
Steer Clear |
Minnesota (2.61) – 3 Games: @ANH, @SJ, @COL |
Toronto (2.85) – 3 Games: LA, @STL, CHI |
Winnipeg (2.99) – 3 Games: STL, COL, DAL |
Dallas (3) – 3 Games: CHI, @NSH, @WPG |
Nashville (3) – 3 Games: @NYR, DAL, SJ |
Tuesday, December 10 to Monday, December 16 |
Best Bets |
Colorado (4.2) – 4 Games: PHX, @WPG, MIN, DAL |
Montreal (4.14) – 4 Games: LA, @PHI, @NYI, FLA |
St. Louis (4.14) – 4 Games: @WPG, TOR, @CBJ, @OTW |
Ottawa (4.09) – 4 Games: @BUF, BUF, LA, STL |
Detroit (4.09) – 4 Games: @FLA, @TB, PIT, TB |
Steer Clear |
Vancouver (2.05) – 2 Games: EDM, BOS |
Anaheim (2.15) – 2 Games: MIN, EDM |
Minnesota (2.61) – 3 Games: @ANH, @SJ, @COL |
NY Islanders (2.79) – 3 Games: @SJ, @PHX, MTL |
Philadelphia (2.89) – 3 Games: @CHI, MTL, @WSH |
Wednesday, December 11 to Tuesday, December 17 |
Best Bets |
Toronto (4.96) – 5 Games: LA, @STL, CHI, @PIT, FLA |
Montreal (4.41) – 4 Games: @PHI, @NYI, FLA, PHX |
Los Angeles (4.15) – 4 Games: @TOR, @OTW, @CHI, EDM |
Winnipeg (4.09) – 4 Games: COL, DAL, @CBJ, @BUF |
St. Louis (4.09) – 4 Games: TOR, @CBJ, @OTW, SJ |
Steer Clear |
New Jersey (1.95) – 2 Games: @PIT, TB |
Carolina (2.19) – 2 Games: @CGY, @PHX |
NY Rangers (2.42) – 2 Games: CBJ, CGY |
San Jose (2.8) – 3 Games: MIN, @NSH, @STL |
Vancouver (2.9) – 3 Games: EDM, BOS, @MIN |
Thursday, December 12 to Wednesday, December 18 |
Best Bets |
Montreal (4.41) – 4 Games: @PHI, @NYI, FLA, PHX |
Winnipeg (4.09) – 4 Games: COL, DAL, @CBJ, @BUF |
St. Louis (4.09) – 4 Games: TOR, @CBJ, @OTW, SJ |
Toronto (4.06) – 4 Games: @STL, CHI, @PIT, FLA |
Detroit (4.05) – 4 Games: @TB, PIT, TB, ANH |
Steer Clear |
Anaheim (2.16) – 2 Games: EDM, @DET |
Carolina (2.19) – 2 Games: @CGY, @PHX |
Minnesota (2.71) – 3 Games: @SJ, @COL, VAN |
Chicago (2.79) – 3 Games: @TOR, LA, @NSH |
San Jose (2.8) – 3 Games: MIN, @NSH, @STL |