Looking Ahead: Week 11

Bob Fisher

2013-12-06

TomasTatar


Teams to target and avoid for the next week, as well as several players who may be available.


 

Here are some teams to target and avoid for the next week or two, several players to target that may be available in your league as well as teams that play a light schedule.

 

Ottawa Senators = Target

 

Games: 7 (5H/2A)

Favorable Matchups:

  • vs. Toronto

7th worst penalty kill

Most shots allowed per game

37 goals allowed in the past ten games

@ Buffalo

7th worst defensive team

5th worst penalty kill

Second most shots allowed per game

24 goals allowed in the past eight games

vs. Buffalo – See above.

 

The Senators start a juicy stretch of games Saturday on Hockey Night in Canada against the Maple Leafs, followed by games against the Flyers and a home-and-home with Buffalo.  The Sens have a lot of home games during the month of December, and that home cooking should only help them move up in the Wild Card race and put up points for your fantasy squad.

 

Montreal Canadiens = Consider

 

Games: 6 (4H/2A)

Favorable Matchups:

vs. Buffalo – See above.

@ NY Islanders

3rd worst defensive team

Worst penalty kill

40 goals allowed in the past ten games

Evgeni Nabokov: 3.30 GAA / .892 SV% / 0 SHO

Kevin Poulin: 3.24 GAA / .887 SV% / 0 SHO

Anders Nilsson: 3.26 GAA / .883 SV% / 0 SHO

vs. Florida

4th worst defensive team

3rd worst penalty kill

24 goals allowed in the past seven games

Tim Thomas: 2.91 GAA / .906 SV% / 0 SHO

vs. Phoenix

6th worst defensive team

4th worst penalty kill

5th most shots allowed per game

31 goals allowed in the past nine games

Mike Smith: 3.02 GAA / .911 SV%

 

The Canadiens are on fire with eight wins in their past nine games (and that loss was a shootout loss).  Look for that to continue as Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec and David Desharnais keep lighting up opposing goaltenders.  Four of their next six games are at the Bell Centre, facing some of the weakest defensive teams in the league.

 

Anaheim Ducks = Beware

 

Games: 6 (3H/3A)

Unfavorable Matchups:

@ Chicago

6th fewest shots allowed per game

11 goals allowed in the past six games entering last night

@ St. Louis

6th best defensive team

3rd fewest shots allowed per game

15 goals allowed in the past eight games

vs. Minnesota

5th best defensive team

2nd fewest shots allowed per game

Josh Harding: 1.52 GAA (1st in NHL) / .935 SV% (3rd in NHL) / 3 SHO (1st in NHL)

 

The Ducks haven't had trouble scoring this season as they average over three goals for per game.  Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and by proxy, Dustin Penner, have been lights out, giving everyone flashbacks to the 2007 Ducks playoff run.  Their upcoming schedule will prove to be a bit tougher for them to match their current clip.  Back-to-back games in Chicago and St. Louis, followed by a home stand with the Isles (that's a good matchup), Wild (another tough one) and the Oilers (a good one) coming to town.  Wrap that up by three days off and then a trip to Joe Louis Arena to face the Wings.  I won't be benching Perry or Getzlaf, but temper your expectations a little.

 

Minnesota Wild = Avoid

 

Games: 6 (2H/4A)

Unfavorable Matchups:

vs. San Jose

8th best defensive team

8th fewest shots allowed per game

Antti Niemi: 2.31 GAA / .915 SV% / 2 SHO

@ San Jose – See above.

@ Colorado

4th best defensive team

11 goals allowed in the past six games entering last night

Semyon Varlamov: 2.13 GAA / .933 SV% / 1 SHO

vs. Vancouver

Best penalty kill

7th fewest shots allowed per game

Roberto Luongo: 2.35 GAA / .914 SV% / 2 SHO

 

The Wild have struggled to score with only 12 goals over the past seven games (and that includes the four they put up on Chicago last night).  Those struggles are going to continue as they have matchups with Columbus, San Jose (twice), Anaheim, Colorado and Vancouver.  None of those teams are push overs that give up goals easily, so don't expect the goals for Minnesota to start flowing in.

 

 

Possible Pickups

Here's a list of some players, owned in less than 30% of Yahoo leagues, to target for the upcoming Monday to Sunday schedule.

 

Carolina: Tuomo Ruutu (2%) – Has the most coveted position on the Canes roster alongside Eric Staal and newly rejuvenated Jeff Skinner, at all times.

 

Ottawa: Mika Zibanejad (6%) – Six points in his past eight games.  He's getting prime ice time alongside Jason Spezza and Milan Michalek at even strength and the top powerplay over the past three games.

 

Montreal: David Desharnais (10%) – Nine points in his last nine games, including 76 faceoff wins (if your league counts those).  Montreal's hottest line right now is Desharnais, Pacioretty and Brendan Gallagher.

 

Detroit: Tomas Tatar (3%) – No Pavel Datsyuk, no Henrik Zetterberg, no Darren Helm.  That means Detroit will have to rely on their young former Grand Rapids Griffins to lead the charge.  Tatar has been up to the task with five points in his last four games.

 

Tampa Bay: Tyler Johnson (2%) – Outside of Martin St. Louis, Valtteri Filppula and Teddy Purcell (and injured Steven Stamkos), there isn't much proven offensive talent for the Lightning.  Johnson had the most ice time among all Tampa Bay forwards last night in their win over Ottawa, picking up an assist skating with St. Louis and Ondrej Palat.  As long as he's skating with St. Louis, he's worth a flier.

 

 

Light Day Targets

Want to know what teams to target based on their schedule landing on light days for the upcoming Monday to Sunday schedule?

 

Week: Monday, December 9 through Sunday, December 15

 

Wednesday: 6 teams

Friday: 6 teams

Monday: 8 teams

Sunday: 12 teams

Thursday: 22 teams

Tuesday: 24 teams

Saturday: 24 teams

 

We continue the Tuesday/Thursday/Saturday schedule with those days being extremely heavy (11 or 12 games on each).  Monday/Wednesday/Friday are very light with ten combined games on those three days.

 

So what teams have a good schedule for the light days?

 

 

 

 

Mon

Tues

Wed

Thur

Fri

Sat

Sun

Philadelphia Flyers

X

 

X

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X

 

 

X

Anaheim Ducks

X

 

X

 

 

 

X

Edmonton Oilers

 

X

 

X

X

 

X

Los Angeles Kings

 

X

X

 

 

X

X

Chicago Blackhawks

 

X

X

 

 

X

X

 


Friday, December 6 to Thursday, December 12

Best Bets

NY Rangers (4.36) – 4 Games: NJ, WSH, NSH, CBJ

Chicago (4.31) – 4 Games: ANH, FLA, @DAL, PHI

Ottawa (4.3) – 4 Games: TOR, PHI, @BUF, BUF

Colorado (4.24) – 4 Games: @CGY, @VAN, PHX, @WPG

Boston (4.18) – 4 Games: PIT, @TOR, @CGY, @EDM

Steer Clear

Pittsburgh (1.92) – 2 Games: @BOS, CBJ

Winnipeg (2.84) – 3 Games: @TB, STL, COL

Florida (2.95) – 3 Games: @DET, @CHI, DET

Los Angeles (2.97) – 3 Games: NYI, @MTL, @TOR

Phoenix (2.97) – 3 Games: @VAN, @COL, NYI

Saturday, December 7 to Friday, December 13

Best Bets

NY Rangers (4.36) – 4 Games: NJ, WSH, NSH, CBJ

Ottawa (4.3) – 4 Games: TOR, PHI, @BUF, BUF

Boston (4.18) – 4 Games: PIT, @TOR, @CGY, @EDM

Edmonton (4.15) – 4 Games: CGY, CAR, BOS, @VAN

Washington (4.14) – 4 Games: NSH, @NYR, TB, @FLA

Steer Clear

Phoenix (2.02) – 2 Games: @COL, NYI

Minnesota (2.75) – 3 Games: SJ, @ANH, @SJ

Winnipeg (2.84) – 3 Games: @TB, STL, COL

Columbus (2.85) – 3 Games: @PIT, NJ, @NYR

New Jersey (2.9) – 3 Games: @NYR, @CBJ, @PIT

Sunday, December 8 to Saturday, December 14

Best Bets

Carolina (4.23) – 4 Games: @VAN, @EDM, @CGY, @PHX

Chicago (4.21) – 4 Games: FLA, @DAL, PHI, @TOR

Ottawa (4.14) – 4 Games: PHI, @BUF, BUF, LA

Boston (4.13) – 4 Games: @TOR, @CGY, @EDM, @VAN

Colorado (4.05) – 4 Games: @VAN, PHX, @WPG, MIN

Steer Clear

Anaheim (2.15) – 2 Games: NYI, MIN

Los Angeles (2.8) – 3 Games: @MTL, @TOR, @OTW

Philadelphia (2.89) – 3 Games: @OTW, @CHI, MTL

Edmonton (2.89) – 3 Games: CAR, BOS, @VAN

Montreal (2.94) – 3 Games: LA, @PHI, @NYI

Monday, December 9 to Sunday, December 15

Best Bets

Carolina (4.23) – 4 Games: @VAN, @EDM, @CGY, @PHX

Ottawa (4.14) – 4 Games: PHI, @BUF, BUF, LA

Montreal (4.14) – 4 Games: LA, @PHI, @NYI, FLA

Detroit (4.09) – 4 Games: @FLA, @TB, PIT, TB

Tampa Bay (3.95) – 4 Games: @WSH, DET, @NJ, @DET

Steer Clear

Minnesota (2.61) – 3 Games: @ANH, @SJ, @COL

Toronto (2.85) – 3 Games: LA, @STL, CHI

Winnipeg (2.99) – 3 Games: STL, COL, DAL

Dallas (3) – 3 Games: CHI, @NSH, @WPG

Nashville (3) – 3 Games: @NYR, DAL, SJ

Tuesday, December 10 to Monday, December 16

Best Bets

Colorado (4.2) – 4 Games: PHX, @WPG, MIN, DAL

Montreal (4.14) – 4 Games: LA, @PHI, @NYI, FLA

St. Louis (4.14) – 4 Games: @WPG, TOR, @CBJ, @OTW

Ottawa (4.09) – 4 Games: @BUF, BUF, LA, STL

Detroit (4.09) – 4 Games: @FLA, @TB, PIT, TB

Steer Clear

Vancouver (2.05) – 2 Games: EDM, BOS

Anaheim (2.15) – 2 Games: MIN, EDM

Minnesota (2.61) – 3 Games: @ANH, @SJ, @COL

NY Islanders (2.79) – 3 Games: @SJ, @PHX, MTL

Philadelphia (2.89) – 3 Games: @CHI, MTL, @WSH

Wednesday, December 11 to Tuesday, December 17

Best Bets

Toronto (4.96) – 5 Games: LA, @STL, CHI, @PIT, FLA

Montreal (4.41) – 4 Games: @PHI, @NYI, FLA, PHX

Los Angeles (4.15) – 4 Games: @TOR, @OTW, @CHI, EDM

Winnipeg (4.09) – 4 Games: COL, DAL, @CBJ, @BUF

St. Louis (4.09) – 4 Games: TOR, @CBJ, @OTW, SJ

Steer Clear

New Jersey (1.95) – 2 Games: @PIT, TB

Carolina (2.19) – 2 Games: @CGY, @PHX

NY Rangers (2.42) – 2 Games: CBJ, CGY

San Jose (2.8) – 3 Games: MIN, @NSH, @STL

Vancouver (2.9) – 3 Games: EDM, BOS, @MIN

Thursday, December 12 to Wednesday, December 18

Best Bets

Montreal (4.41) – 4 Games: @PHI, @NYI, FLA, PHX

Winnipeg (4.09) – 4 Games: COL, DAL, @CBJ, @BUF

St. Louis (4.09) – 4 Games: TOR, @CBJ, @OTW, SJ

Toronto (4.06) – 4 Games: @STL, CHI, @PIT, FLA

Detroit (4.05) – 4 Games: @TB, PIT, TB, ANH

Steer Clear

Anaheim (2.16) – 2 Games: EDM, @DET

Carolina (2.19) – 2 Games: @CGY, @PHX

Minnesota (2.71) – 3 Games: @SJ, @COL, VAN

Chicago (2.79) – 3 Games: @TOR, LA, @NSH

San Jose (2.8) – 3 Games: MIN, @NSH, @STL

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 05 - 19:11 CAR vs PHI
Nov 05 - 19:11 MTL vs CGY
Nov 05 - 19:11 BUF vs OTT
Nov 05 - 19:11 TOR vs BOS
Nov 05 - 19:11 NYI vs PIT
Nov 05 - 20:11 MIN vs L.A
Nov 05 - 20:11 STL vs T.B
Nov 05 - 20:11 WPG vs UTA
Nov 05 - 21:11 COL vs SEA
Nov 05 - 22:11 ANA vs VAN
Nov 05 - 22:11 S.J vs CBJ

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
CONNOR MCMICHAEL WSH
ALEX LAFERRIERE L.A
PAVEL DOROFEYEV VGK
MARTIN NECAS CAR
TIMOTHY LILJEGREN S.J

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
PYOTR KOCHETKOV CAR
JUSTUS ANNUNEN COL
FREDERIK ANDERSEN CAR

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency STL Players
19.5 BRAYDEN SCHENN JORDAN KYROU DYLAN HOLLOWAY
16.5 BRANDON SAAD JAKE NEIGHBOURS PAVEL BUCHNEVICH
13.5 ALEXEY TOROPCHENKO RADEK FAKSA ZACK BOLDUC

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