Is P.A. Parenteau a stud or a dud?

Over the past two seasons there was a secret that gradually became common knowledge in fantasy hockey circles – P.A. Parenteau can play on a line with a number one center and thrive. The thirty-year-old Parenteau has had an interesting journey as the late bloomer permanently broke into the league only three years ago. And just two seasons ago, with the help of John Tavares, all of a sudden Parenteau became fantasy relevant.

After a couple of cups of coffee (five games with Chicago in 2006-2007 and 22 games as a Ranger in 2009-2010) Parenteau eventually landed on Long Island and posted 53 points in 81 games in 2010-2011. Breaking 50 points was a very solid showing for a player who had just 27 NHL games to his credit going into 2010-2011. The next season, Parenteau had his breakout campaign posting 67 points.

2011-2012 Regular Season

Playing alongside Tavares for most of the season, Parenteau had a remarkable 2011-12. A lot of credit can be given to his superstar teammate but Parenteau showed he had the talent to play first line minutes and complement a high caliber player.

Here is a breakdown of Parenteau's most frequent line combinations in 2011-12:

Here is a breakdown of his 67 points in 80 games. Parenteau was on Tavares' wing for 46 of those points.

Denver Bound

Despite the great chemistry between the two players, Parenteau signed a four-year deal with the Colorado Avalanche before 2012-13. Most observers attributed his success to playing with Tavares and expected the winger's production to decline despite indications Parenteau would have the opportunity to line up beside Matt Duchene. Considering that Duchene was fresh off of a 28 point campaign in 58 games in 2011-12, speculating that Parenteau would not achieve the same numbers in Denver appeared to be a low risk prediction.

Instead the two thrived and played together most of last season. Here is a snapshot of last season's most frequent line combinations for Parenteau. He played over 70% of the time on Duchene's line.

Here is a look at the breakdown of Parenteau's 43 points in 48 games (a 73 point pace). Duchene also finished with 43 points last season and the two players were on the ice together for 37 of those points.

Over the past two seasons, Parenteau scored 110 points in 128 games – and became very fantasy relevant. Going into this season the secret was out and Parenteau was drafted in many leagues with expectations that he would play alongside Duchene and provide at least 60 points and probably more. The duo appeared to be inseparable and some thought Parenteau may break 70 points this year.

Enter Patrick Roy. Since the head coach's arrival, Parenteau has been bounced around from line to line and has seen equal time with Duchene, Stastny, Mackinnon, McGinn, and Mitchell. While the Avalanche have enjoyed an amazing start proving to be one of the best teams in the West this year, Parenteau has seen a decline in his numbers.

Here is a breakdown of Parenteau's most frequent line combinations so far this season. As mentioned, he has been seen time with various centers and has played anywhere from the team's first line to the third line. Most concerning is how he has played significantly less with Duchene.

While Duchene is enjoying a career year – Parenteau is on pace for 51 points. There is no question that Parenteau is talented and complements superstar centers, but it is clear that in order to achieve over 60 points Parenteau needs significant time with high quality line mates. Without them, Parenteau is more likely to contribute 50 points and average peripherals.

Here is a look at Parenteau's production so far this season, followed by a snapshot of his production on various lines.

2013-2014 Regular Season

So what should poolies expect going forward? Is Parenteau a 70-point player or has he already peaked and about to settle in as a 50-point producer?

Final Forensic Notes

As the younger players (MacKinnon, O'Reilly, Landeskog) in the Avalanche organization continue to blossom, expect Parenteau's numbers to decline or stay at their current pace.

Parenteau is not a cap friendly addition as he comes with a cap hit of 4m/year.

In 2011-12 Parenteau registered 89 PIM which may surprise some poolies. Last season he had 38 PIM in 48 games and is a surprising contributor in this category.

Expect Parenteau to finish on his current pace this season with 23 goals, 28 assists, 51 points, 140 SOG, 50 PIM, and a neutral plus/minus rating. With Roy at the helm, Parenteau's monopoly as a winger on the first line seems to be numbered. Sell high after his next hot streak if you can get a 60 point player in return.

Previously in Frozen Pool Forensics:

Kyle Turris

Clarke MacArthur