December 22, 2013

Dobber Sports

2013-12-22

 

Welcome to a special holiday edition of the Sunday Ramblings! As a Christmas treat I’ll share a fantasy war story with you right off the bat.

 

Last night I started Ilya Bryzgalov over Kari Lehtonen (I didn’t want to start either, but my opponent’s goaltender Curtis McElhinny was just good enough against Philadelphia that I had a .002 save percentage deficit and a .15 GAA deficit). My reasoning of course was that the Sharks are a nominally better offensive team than the Blues. Hey, it’s not like Lehtonen has been lights out or anything this season!

 

Of course, Lehtonen proceeded to save 37 of 39 shots faced while Bryzgalov stopped 21 of 26. So that awful decision quite literally cost me my fantasy week…

 

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Honestly are we even sure the guy the Edmonton Oilers signed is Ilya Bryzgalov? Maybe Bryzgalov was abducted by Aliens and he’s been replaced by some reflex-less avatar. Would help explain this goal against

 

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Okay I’ll put aside my own Fantasy Hockey related anger this morning and recap last night’s action. We’ll start with the afternoon games of which there were three on Saturday night. 

 

Calgary visited the depleted but oh so impressive Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday afternoon and lost because Crosby. Curtis Glenncross appeared to sustain a knee injury as his injury-plagued season continued. 

 

Last weekend I suggested that Penguins defender Bortuzzo might be able to do a “poor man’s Radko Gudas” impression over the next few weeks (with all of Pittsburgh’s regular top-four out of the lineup). If you took my advice you’ve been a happy fantasy owner this week, and Bortuzzo managed two assists, two hits, and was a +1 on Sunday…

 

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The Penguins at the moment are basically the Black Knight from Monty Python’s Holy Grail. Except way more successful.

 

The Penguins have won seven games in a row, including four this past week. At the moment they’re without Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, Paul Martin, Brooks Orpik, Deryk Engelland and Rob Scuderi. But they’re winning games with an AHL blue-line because that’s what good organizations do: they have the depth and quality elsewhere to tread water with a depleted lineup. 

 

The likes of Jon Hynes (who coaches the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Penguins), Ray Shero and Dan Bylsma deserve a good deal of credit…

 

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Antoine Vermette’s heroics keyed a late Coyotes comeback victory over the Ottawa Senators, a critical result for the Pacific Division team. Vermette also blocked a shot with his head in the games final minutes, and I was pretty worried about him while watching the game. Then he scored the overtime winner, completing his hat-trick and I figured he was probably OK. 

 

Hell of a performance from the former Senator, even if it angered some of Ottawa’s unwashed. It was also a necessary one for an undermanned team desperate to keep pace in hockey’s most difficult division…

 

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We knew that Ottawa’s goaltending would regress somewhat this season, but did we know that they’d morph into a complete tirefire defensively? Perhaps some people realized the extent to which the Senators defense was playing over their heads last season, but I’m not one of those people. 

 

At the moment the Senators are the third worst defensive team in the league by goals allowed and only the New York Islanders and the Edmonton Oilers are worse. They’re on pace to allow over 270 goals against. Massive steps backwards from the likes of Jared Cowen and Peter Wiercioch have hurt Ottawa significantly, as has the clubs decision to roll with Craig Anderson rather than Robin Lehner (who is, simply, out performing him).

 

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Oliver Ekman-Larsson managed 6 shots and 3 hits, so he had a useful fantasy day despite going pointless. OEL’s Fantasy Value has persisted this season even as his underlying numbers have cratered somewhat. Meanwhile Cory Conacher has obviously fallen somewhat out of favour and played fourth-line minutes again on Saturday afternoon. I hated the Bishop deal for Tampa at the time – and still don’t think he’s a particularly good bet to provide above average goaltending as a starter, frankly – but Yzerman’s gamble is looking pretty smart at the moment…

 

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Speaking of smart and good bets to provide above average goaltending, let’s talk about Martin Jones for a minute. The rookie standout has won eight in a row, setting an NHL record for most consecutive victories to start a career for an NHL rookie goaltending. Jones’ emergence means the Kings have effectively replaced Jonathan Quick two times this season.

 

Based on large sample even-strength save percentage Quick is right in that group of “average-to-modestly above average and massively over-rated goaltenders” alongside Cam Ward, Carey Price and Ilya Bryzgalov (before he signed with Phildelphia). Moreover, if you can be replaced in the blink of an eye twice then I might suggest that you’re probably not a player who is worthwhile to have on an expensive long-term contract…

 

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Kings defenseman Jake Muzzin had a hell of a game on Saturday against the Avalanche. The young, talented puck mover didn’t record any points but he managed five hits and five shots from the blue-line.

 

I hadn’t realized that Muzzin’s teammate Drew Doughty opnely lobbied to play with Muzzin at training camp. Really interesting to hear a player basically talk about the experience of posting a corsi% through the roof with a certain teammate…

 

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Ryan O’Rielly had the rare two point game in which you’re also a -2. ROR managed three shots and a hit for good measure, and his goal was an absolute stunner

 

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The Bruins man-handled the Sabres 4-1 on Saturday, in the least surprising result of the game. More surprising? That Patrice Bergeron and Tyler Myers dropped the gloves. The fact that most of Myers’ punches missed high on Bergeron was probably my favorite part of last night’s slate.

 

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I’ve been a big proponent of Bruins forward Rielly Smith – as you may have noticed – over the past few weeks, but he actually had a dog of a fantasy week until last night when he managed two goals (including the empty netter). Carl Soderberg managed five shots, while Iginla managed six. Also managing five shots on goal? Sabres teenager Zemgus Girgensons, who is still about twelve months away from breaking out.

 

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Bruins rookie Ryan Spooner was excellent in preseason, but it looks like the Bruins knew what they were doing when they sent him to the AHL this past fall. On Saturday Spooner played on a third line mostly with Carl Soderberg and Matt Fraser. That line started constantly in the offensive end of the rink, but lost the territorial battle for the most part (Soderberg was better with other line-mates, as he played up the lineup a bit more often than Spooner and Fraser did). 

 

Anyway, Spooner is really talented and I admire his game. I don’t mean to take any shots at him but I thought he might have some opportunity to really step up in Boston over the next month or two. He’s definitely an NHL caliber forward at this point, but I’m not convinced he’s got fantasy value yet.

 

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Linus Omark played under 13 minutes and was quiet (just one shot on goal) in his Sabres debut. 

 

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The Maple Leafs and Red Wings played a wild one – a 5-4 shootout victory for the Red Wings that we’ll get to watch again next week on 24/7. Tomas Jurco scored a ballsy goal, Jonas Gustavsson may have made the save of the season, and Dion Phaneuf had one hell of a game on the back-end (a goal, +2, 3 shots, 3 hits). So did Cody Franson for that matter (a goal, 7 hits).

 

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Another Leaf who had an excellent fantasy game was David Clarkson. Clarkson managed a goal (maybe the ugliest of the year? Can’t wait to see it in slow-motion on HBO!), three shots and five hits. That’s the sort of game all the homer Toronto Maple Leafs fans who drafted Clarkson in the fourth round (or earlier?) in their fantasy draft this season were waiting for!

 

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Nice Toronto homecoming for Red Wings rookie Riley Sheahan – who managed the first points of his NHL career, in just his third NHL game, in his hometown (or thereabouts, he’s from St. Catherines). Meanwhile Red Wings winger Jordin Tootoo, who only just returned to the Red Wings from the Grand Rapids Griffins, had a productive five minutes of icetime on Saturday. Tootoo managed an assist, four hits, and two shots despite limited icetime.

 

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In case you missed the best moment of last night’s NHL slate: fantasy darling Radko Gudas scored the overtime winner in Tampa’s win over the Hurricanes! Gudas finished the game with 5 hits, 5 shots, and a goal we might add. 

 

Fellow Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman had a nice game as well (a goal, an assist, three shots and two hits) while Matt Carle managed seven shots on goal from the back-end. On the Carolina side Ron Hainsey recorded six hits and added an assist, while Jiri Tlusy scored twice for the ‘Canes.

 

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Ryan Getzlaf managed a hat-trick for the Ducks on Saturday in a 5-3 victory on Long Island. Getzlaf scored two goals off of rebounds and added an empty netter. No style points for Getzlaf, but lots of actual and fantasy points (which are what matter). Getzlaf didn’t record a hit in the game and scored on all three shots he took.

 

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Ducks forward Kyle Palmieri had himself one hell of a weekend as he added two additional points on Saturday (he had a two point game including the OT winner on Friday night in Newark). Palmieri also took six shots on Saturday…

 

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On the Islanders side: Thomas Vanek scored a couple of goals, while Michael Grabner went -4 in the contest. 

 

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The Devils outlasted the Capitals in overtime with a 5-4 victory in which Ovechkin scored his 30th goal of the season on Saturday night. Let that sink in for a minute. Many of you reading this probably don’t have a single 30 goal scorer on your fantasy team (presuming you play in a deeper league).

 

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Just as amazing: Jaromir Jagr scored a goal and added two assists on Saturday night. That brings the 41-year-old Czech legend’s cumulative points total up to 33 on the season in 38 games. Ridiculous.

 

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Might be worth noting that Martin Erat played over 16 minutes on Saturday and recorded a couple of assists, three hits and a shot on goal. Quietly Erat has played over 16 minutes in each of the past 6 games and has four points in his last three (all assists). Worth looking at since if he continues to get burn then he’s a top-six quality forward who is guaranteed to be available in your league right now…

 

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The Philadelphia Flyers fell 6-3 to the Columbus Blue Jackets on Saturday night as Ryan Johansen continued his breakout campaign. Johansen added two goals to his totals (and took five shots) against Philadelphia. He’s now scored 14 goals on the season and has 29 points in 36 games, which ain’t too bad. 

 

Oh also Marian Gaborik is out indefinitely as he broke his collarbone early in the game. At least he recorded an assist on the sequence? 

 

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Weird fantasy line of the night has to go to waiver wire fodder Corey Tropp, currently with the Columbus Blue Jackets. Playing under nine minutes while skating mostly with Blake Comeau and Mark Letetsu; Tropp managed two assists, three shots and four hits. No way anybody had him dressed though…

 

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Brandon Dubinsky was a -2 on Saturday but managed five shots and three hits. He continues to provide excellent value and you should pick him up if he’s available for some god forsaken reason in your league (which he might be, he’s only owned in 38% of leagues somehow).

 

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The Canadiens are just not very good this year, frankly. They can hang with just about anyone when P.K. Subban is on the ice, but without him they’re among the league’s worst. Moreover they’re probably the league’s single most boring team to watch. I watch a tonne of hockey both for fun and for work and they’ve morphed into the “team I actively avoid having to watch” this season…

 

On Saturday the Habs exploded for three goals in the first, then blew their lead over the balance of the game before winning it in overtime. 

 

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Subban had a strong game – of course – managed a goal, six shots, three hits and finishing a +3. Also Max Pacioretty, who along with Subban is the exception to the “Canadiens suck to watch” rule, scored a lovely goal and finished with five shots.

 

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Predators rookie Seth Jones was struck in the face with a puck and left the game. Jones wears a visor which protected his face and the young American born defender didn’t go to hospital, so hopefully he doesn’t miss too much time.

 

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Roman Josi managed seven shots on Saturday, while Hornquist managed five (and a goal, and a couple of hits). Josi is probably available in your league right now, and makes a lot of sense. He’s going to be more productive going forward this season than he’s been so far…

 

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Chris Stewart scored a hat-trick on Saturday night, and the Oilers are so terrible that they make Brenden Morrow look good. That’s really all you need to know about that.

 

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Finally the Sharks overcame the Stars in overtime on Saturday. Joe Thornton picked up his 32nd assist of the season(!) on this beauty from Joe Pavelski, Antoine Roussel continued to be a beast with his eighth goal of the season (he hadded six shots for good measure), and Brenden Dillon managed four shots and four hits in another solid outing for the massively under-rated defender.  

 

Thomas Drance is a news editor at theScore.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 23 - 13:12 N.J vs NYR
Dec 23 - 14:12 TOR vs WPG
Dec 23 - 19:12 DET vs STL
Dec 23 - 19:12 CBJ vs MTL
Dec 23 - 19:12 BOS vs WSH
Dec 23 - 19:12 FLA vs T.B
Dec 23 - 19:12 PIT vs PHI
Dec 23 - 19:12 NYI vs BUF
Dec 23 - 20:12 NSH vs CAR
Dec 23 - 20:12 MIN vs CHI
Dec 23 - 21:12 UTA vs DAL
Dec 23 - 21:12 VAN vs S.J
Dec 23 - 22:12 VGK vs ANA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
LANE HUTSON MTL
PATRIK LAINE MTL
SHANE PINTO OTT
JONATHAN HUBERDEAU CGY

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
SPENCER KNIGHT FLA
DAVID RITTICH L.A
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
JACOB MARKSTROM N.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency FLA Players
15.9 CARTER VERHAEGHE SAM REINHART ALEKSANDER BARKOV
14.0 MATTHEW TKACHUK EVAN RODRIGUES SAM BENNETT
12.6 TOMAS NOSEK A.J. GREER RASMUS ASPLUND

DobberHockey Podcasts

Keeping Karlsson: Short Shifts – EBUP (Emergency Backup Podcaster)

Elan comes in to save the day and records with Shams to bring you all the fantasy news you need to know as we near the Christmas break. They cover the fantasy impact of the Kaapo Kakko trade and the nearing return of Alex Ovechkin and Rasmus Dahlin from injury. After that, they cover many […]

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