Forensics: Paul Stastny
Tom Collins
2014-01-31
Has Paul Stastny gotten his mojo back?
Paul Stastny was a valuable fantasy player when he first burst onto the NHL scene back in 2006-07. Scoring 70-plus points in three of his first four seasons, poolies thought the future was bright for the son of Hall of Famer Peter Stastny.
Then it all fell apart. Stastny's points fell for four straight seasons, and owners were dropping him as fast as they were able.
But Stastny has quietly been one of the hottest NHL players in the league. With 13 points in his last 10 games, Stastny is riding a streak currently enjoyed by players such as Ryan Getzlaf, Taylor Hall and Alexander Ovechkin.
Here's a list of the hottest players in the last 10 games, courtesy of frozen pool.
Rank |
Player |
Team |
Pos |
Date Start |
Pts |
PPG |
HOT |
COLD |
1 |
TOR |
R |
17 |
1.7 |
2 |
0 |
||
2 |
NYI |
R |
14 |
1.4 |
6 |
0 |
||
3 |
EDM |
L |
13 |
1.3 |
6 |
0 |
||
4 |
COL |
C |
13 |
1.3 |
1 |
0 |
||
5 |
WSH |
R |
13 |
1.3 |
3 |
0 |
||
6 |
ANA |
C |
13 |
1.3 |
2 |
0 |
||
7 |
T.B |
C |
13 |
1.3 |
0 |
1 |
||
8 |
BOS |
L |
12 |
1.2 |
0 |
1 |
||
9 |
CHI |
R |
12 |
1.2 |
2 |
0 |
||
10 |
S.J |
C |
12 |
1.2 |
0 |
2 |
On the season, Stastny has been a pleasant surprise for owners who may have written him off, as he currently has 15 goals and 38 points, a 65-point pace over a full 82-game season.
What's up with the hot streak, and can he keep it up?
Let's look at who he has been playing with the last 10 games.
Games between 2014-01-10 and 2014-01-30 |
||
Frequency |
Strength |
Line Combination |
27.58% |
EV |
92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – 7 MITCHELL,JOHN – 26 STASTNY,PAUL |
24.39% |
EV |
92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – 26 STASTNY,PAUL – 40 TANGUAY,ALEX |
17.26% |
EV |
92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – 29 MACKINNON,NATHAN – 26 STASTNY,PAUL |
6.94% |
PP |
92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – 29 MACKINNON,NATHAN – 26 STASTNY,PAUL |
2.81% |
EV |
92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – 90 O’REILLY,RYAN – 26 STASTNY,PAUL |
2.25% |
EV |
92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE – 26 STASTNY,PAUL |
2.06% |
PP |
92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE – 26 STASTNY,PAUL |
1.5% |
PP |
9 DUCHENE,MATT – 92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – 29 MACKINNON,NATHAN – 26 STASTNY,PAUL |
1.31% |
EV |
24 CLICHE,MARC-ANDRE – 92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – 26 STASTNY,PAUL |
1.13% |
EV
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|
92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – 26 STASTNY,PAUL |
You think Colorado coach Patrick Roy likes having Stastny and Gabriel Landeskog play together? Those two definitely have strong chemistry, and they've played together for most of the year.
Frequency |
Strength |
Line Combination |
19.63% |
EV |
92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – 26 STASTNY,PAUL – 40 TANGUAY,ALEX |
17.43% |
EV |
92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE – 26 STASTNY,PAUL |
9.56% |
EV |
92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – 29 MACKINNON,NATHAN – 26 STASTNY,PAUL |
5.56% |
EV |
92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – 7 MITCHELL,JOHN – 26 STASTNY,PAUL |
5.4% |
EV |
92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – 11 MCGINN,JAMIE – 26 STASTNY,PAUL |
5.24% |
EV |
11 MCGINN,JAMIE – 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE – 26 STASTNY,PAUL |
5.13% |
EV |
92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – 90 O’REILLY,RYAN – 26 STASTNY,PAUL |
3.49% |
EV |
90 O’REILLY,RYAN – 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE – 26 STASTNY,PAUL |
3.3% |
PP |
92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – 29 MACKINNON,NATHAN – 26 STASTNY,PAUL |
3.12% |
PP |
92 LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – 15 PARENTEAU,PIERRE – 26 STASTNY,PAUL |
It's no wonder Roy trusts Stastny and Landeskog so much. The two are money when they play together. In fact, 33 of Stastny's 39 points come with Landeskog on the ice.
Total Points for Paul Stastny : 39 |
|||
Str |
On Ice Line Combination |
Points |
%Total |
PP |
LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – MACKINNON,NATHAN – STASTNY,PAUL |
8 |
20.51% |
EV |
LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – STASTNY,PAUL – TANGUAY,ALEX |
7 |
17.95% |
EV |
LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – PARENTEAU,PIERRE – STASTNY,PAUL |
5 |
12.82% |
EV |
LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – MACKINNON,NATHAN – STASTNY,PAUL |
3 |
7.69% |
PP |
LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – MACKINNON,NATHAN – PARENTEAU,PIERRE – STASTNY,PAUL |
2 |
5.13% |
EV |
MCGINN,JAMIE – PARENTEAU,PIERRE – STASTNY,PAUL |
2 |
5.13% |
EV |
LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – MITCHELL,JOHN – STASTNY,PAUL |
2 |
5.13% |
EV |
MACKINNON,NATHAN – MCGINN,JAMIE – STASTNY,PAUL |
1 |
2.56% |
PP |
DUCHENE,MATT – LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – PARENTEAU,PIERRE – STASTNY,PAUL |
1 |
2.56% |
EV |
MCGINN,JAMIE – STASTNY,PAUL – TALBOT,MAXIME |
1 |
2.56% |
EV |
STASTNY,PAUL – TANGUAY,ALEX |
1 |
2.56% |
EV |
MITCHELL,JOHN – PARENTEAU,PIERRE – STASTNY,PAUL |
1 |
2.56% |
EV |
LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – STASTNY,PAUL – TALBOT,MAXIME |
1 |
2.56% |
SH |
STASTNY,PAUL – TANGUAY,ALEX |
1 |
2.56% |
EV |
LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – MCGINN,JAMIE – STASTNY,PAUL |
1 |
2.56% |
EV |
LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – STASTNY,PAUL |
1 |
2.56% |
EV |
LANDESKOG,GABRIEL – O’REILLY,RYAN – STASTNY,PAUL |
1 |
2.56% |
Looking at the season as a whole, Stastny has been pretty consistent outside of a nine-game pointless streak.
His plus-minus has been a pleasant surprise. Right now, he sits at a plus-seven, tied for fifth-best on the Avalanche and only three behind the leader. This is only the second time in the past six seasons Stastny has been a plus-player.
Despite getting the fourth most amount of even strength ice time (15:22 average a game) and seventh most amount of power play ice time (2:20 average per game) amongst forwards, it's interesting to note that Stastny does not play a regular shift with the top Avalanche point-getter, Matt Duchene.
Stastny's 15.8% shooting percentage is his second highest since his sophomore season, and about three percentage points above his career average. However, he should be able to keep it up due to the simple fact the Avalanche are a better team than they have been in the last few years. Playing with better linemates leaves Stastny more openings to take quality shots – if you believe in that sort of thing.
Stastny's faceoff work is also something to be admired and is a nice bonus for leagues that count faceoff wins or percentages. Stastny leads Colorado in faceoffs taken (he's on pace for about 1,300 this year), and has been dynamite on the dot. This year, he's won 54.3% of the faceoffs he has taken, which places him 11th in the league amongst players who have taken at least 800 faceoffs. Looking at his career numbers, Stastny has never had less than a below average winning percentage since his rookie season, and has won 52 per cent of his career faceoffs.
In some of the other real-time categories, as NHL.com likes to call them, Stastny isn't as useful. This year he has just 20 penalty minutes (11th on the Avalanche), 39 hits (14th) and 27 blocked shots (13th).
Of course, for all his success this year, it's important to note that he will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. Like many players before him, Stastny could be using this season as a catalyst for a big paycheque.
For years, Stastny has been the target of many trade rumours. But if he keeps up this pace, he may find himself in Colorado for another little while. Colorado has lots of cap space and only one other major free agent, Ryan O'Reilly. And with the young core of the franchise older getting better with experience, Stastny should find himself in a great situation for the next couple of years.
And that should please Stastny owners as he's well on his way to getting his mojo back.
Previously in Frozen Pool Forensics: