Looking Ahead: Week 19
Bob Fisher
2014-01-31
Five players to consider for Week 19…
* This article was written before NHL games were played on Thursday, January 30, 2014
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Here are some teams to target and avoid for the next week or two, several players to target that may be available in your league as well as teams that play a light schedule in the upcoming week.
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Washington Capitals = Target
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Games: 5 (4H/1A)
Favorable Matchups:
   – vs. NY Islanders
       > 2nd worst defensive team
       > Worst PK
       > 9th most shots allowed per game
   – vs. Winnipeg
       > 10th worst defensive team
       > Nine goals allowed in last three games (3.00 GAA)
       > Ondrej Pavelec leads the league in losses and has allowed the second most goals
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The Capitals are one of eight teams to play five games between now and the Olympic break. They have also scored five goals in both games since the return of their captain, Alex Ovechkin. And those two games weren't against super weak defensive teams either. Their pre-Olympic schedule looks pretty promising with a home-and-home with the struggling Red Wings followed by three home games against the Isles, Jets and Devils. Of that group, the Devils are the only true strong defensive team. Ovechkin and Mike Green should continue to put up points and look for Nicklas Backstrom to join in as well because he is too good to only have two points in nine games.
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Montreal Canadiens = Consider
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Games: 5 (4H/1A)
Favorable Matchups:
   – vs. Winnipeg
       > See above
   – vs. Calgary
       > 3rd worst defensive team
       > 24 goals allowed in last seven games (3.43 GAA)
       > Karri Ramo has not had two consecutive games with .900+ save percentage since mid-December
   – @ Carolina
       > 7th worst PK
       > 18 goals allowed in last six games (3.00 GAA)
       > Anton Khudobin has allowed at least two goals or more in his past nine games played
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The Canadiens have failed to provide much offense as of late, netting just 19 goals in their last ten games (1.90 GFA). Like Washington, Montreal is one of the teams that have five games remaining on their pre-Olympic schedule. That, coupled with a few of the opponents they are slated to play, their offensively-challenged play should improve when Winnipeg and Calgary come to town or when they travel to Carolina for their last game before the break. Don't lose faith with Brendan Gallagher, David Desharnais, Max Pacioretty or even P.K. Subban. The points will come.
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Nashville Predators = Beware
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Games: 4 (2H/2A)
Unfavorable Matchups:
   – vs. New Jersey
       > 5th best defensive team
       > 2nd best PK
       > Fewest shots allowed per game
   – @ St. Louis
       > 3rd best defensive team
       > 5th best PK
       > 2nd fewest shots allowed per game
   – @ Minnesota
       > 7th best defensive team
       > 7th fewest shots allowed per game
       > Darcy Kuemper has had one game of sub-.906 save percentage in 2014 (9 GP)
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I listed the predators as a "Beware" team last week too. They went out and scored nine goals in three games since then, which is a pretty good scoring clip (and possibly making me look dumb, which isn't hard to do). But take a look at those three opponents: Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg. That was the easy half of the two week chunk of games I look at. Now they will face New Jersey, St. Louis, Minnesota and Anaheim before the Olympic break. On top of that, their #1 defenseman and second-leading scorer, Shea Weber, is currently nursing an upper body injury. Even if Weber suits up, the Preds will be hard pressed to put many pucks past Cory Schneider, Jaroslav Halak, Kuemper and Jonas Hiller.
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Los Angeles Kings = Avoid
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Games: 3 (3H/0A)
Unfavorable Matchups:
   – Their offense
   – Their schedule
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The Kings have managed only two goals over their past four games, while being shutout twice. They are also one of two teams that only play three games between now and the Olympic break. Jeff Carter has one assist in those four games. Anze Kopitar has three points in his last seven games. Mike Richards is pointless in four. Drew Doughty is pointless in five. Justin Williams has one assist in his last ten games. Dustin Brown is pointless in eight and is not even fantasy worthy anymore. LA's upcoming schedule isn't too daunting, it's just the fact they have been too inept at putting the puck into the opposition net and that they only have three games between now and the break that makes them a team to avoid right now.
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Possible Pickups
Here's a list of some players, owned in less than 30% of Yahoo leagues, to target for the upcoming Monday to Sunday schedule.
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Colorado: Jamie McGinn (3%) – Two points in his past three games with 6 hits and 7 shots on goal while lining up with Matt Duchene and Ryan O'Reilly. McGinn also earns some second unit PP time as well.
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Vancouver: Chris Higgins (13%) – Five points in his past four games to go with +1, 5 hits and 16 shots. Plays with Ryan Kesler in all situations.
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Ottawa: Mika Zibanejad (4%) – Only one point in his past two games but he skates with Jason Spezza and Milan Michalek at evens while ranking sixth on the teams amongst forwards in average powerplay ice time.
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Buffalo: Steve Ott (10%) – Four points in his past five games while also racking up 19 hits, 34 faceoff wins and 8 shots. Still riding shotgun with Cody Hodgson and getting plenty of powerplay time.
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New Jersey: Ryane Clowe (20%) – 11 points in his last 11 games along with 9 PIMs, 21 hits and 22 shots. Clowe completes the trio of Adam Henrique and Michael Ryder at even strength and the man advantage.
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Light Day Targets
Want to know what teams to target based on their schedule landing on light days for the upcoming Monday to Sunday schedule?
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Week: Monday, February 3rd through Sunday, February 9th
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Monday: 14 teams
Tuesday: 18 teams
Wednesday: 6 teams
Thursday: 22 teams
Friday: 10 teams
Saturday: 20 teams
Sunday: 0 teams
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Only a six-day week because of the Olympics, but with that comes five days of double-digit teams in action. So some good news with some bad. Three teams play four games and three only play two games while the other 24 have three games.
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So what teams have a good schedule for the light days?
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Mon |
Tues |
Wed |
Thur |
Fri |
Sat |
Sun |
San Jose Sharks |
X |
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X |
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X |
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Pittsburgh Penguins |
X |
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X |
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X
📢 advertisement:
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Chicago Blackhawks |
X |
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X |
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X |
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Anaheim Ducks |
X |
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X |
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X |
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Buffalo Sabres |
X |
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X |
X |
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Friday, January 31 to Thursday, February 6 |
Best Bets |
Washington (4.31) – 4 Games: @DET, DET, NYI, WPG |
Montreal (4.31) – 4 Games: TB, WPG, CGY, VAN |
Buffalo (4.30) – 4 Games: @COL, EDM, PIT, @OTW |
St. Louis (4.15) – 4 Games: @CAR, NSH, OTW, BOS |
Detroit (4.04) – 4 Games: WSH, @WSH, VAN, @FLA |
Steer Clear |
Carolina (2.00) – 2 Games: STL, WPG |
New Jersey (2.05) – 2 Games: @NSH, COL |
Phoenix (2.10) – 2 Games: PIT, DAL |
Chicago (2.42) – 3 Games: @SJ, @LA, @ANH |
Nashville (2.61) – 3 Games: NJ, @STL, @MIN |
Saturday, February 1 to Friday, February 7 |
Best Bets |
Montreal (4.31) – 4 Games: TB, WPG, CGY, VAN |
Buffalo (4.30) – 4 Games: @COL, EDM, PIT, @OTW |
San Jose (4.25) – 4 Games: CHI, PHI, DAL, CBJ |
Pittsburgh (4.25) – 4 Games: @PHX, OTW, @BUF, NYR |
Florida (4.11) – 4 Games: @CBJ, TOR, DET, @CAR |
Steer Clear |
Nashville (1.66) – 2 Games: @STL, @MIN |
NY Islanders (2.16) – 2 Games: @WSH, CGY |
Carolina (2.26) – 2 Games: WPG, FLA |
New Jersey (2.31) – 2 Games: COL, EDM |
Philadelphia (2.62) – 3 Games: @LA, @SJ, COL |
Sunday, February 2 to Saturday, February 8 |
Best Bets |
Washington (4.31) – 4 Games: DET, NYI, WPG, NJ |
Montreal (4.26) – 4 Games: WPG, CGY, VAN, @CAR |
Detroit (3.90) – 4 Games: @WSH, VAN, @FLA, @TB |
Colorado (3.85) – 4 Games: @NJ, @NYR, @PHI, @NYI |
Vancouver (3.71) – 4 Games: @DET, @BOS, @MTL, @TOR |
Steer Clear |
Nashville (1.80) – 2 Games: @MIN, ANH |
Los Angeles (2.10) – 2 Games: CHI, CBJ |
Minnesota (2.10) – 2 Games: TB, NSH |
Columbus (2.42) – 3 Games: @ANH, @LA, @SJ |
Chicago (2.66) – 3 Games: @LA, @ANH, @PHX |
Monday, February 3 to Sunday, February 9 |
Best Bets |
Colorado (3.85) – 4 Games: @NJ, @NYR, @PHI, @NYI |
Vancouver (3.71) – 4 Games: @DET, @BOS, @MTL, @TOR |
Ottawa (3.57) – 4 Games: @PIT, @STL, BUF, @BOS |
Buffalo (3.35) – 3 Games: EDM, PIT, @OTW |
New Jersey (3.26) – 3 Games: COL, EDM, @WSH |
Steer Clear |
Nashville (1.80) – 2 Games: @MIN, ANH |
Los Angeles (2.10) – 2 Games: CHI, CBJ |
Minnesota (2.10) – 2 Games: TB, NSH |
Columbus (2.42) – 3 Games: @ANH, @LA, @SJ |
Chicago (2.66) – 3 Games: @LA, @ANH, @PHX |
Tuesday, February 4 to Monday, February 10 |
Best Bets |
Washington (3.26) – 3 Games: NYI, WPG, NJ |
Carolina (3.26) – 3 Games: WPG, FLA, MTL |
NY Rangers (3.21) – 3 Games: COL, EDM, @PIT |
NY Islanders (3.21) – 3 Games: @WSH, CGY, COL |
St. Louis (3.20) – 3 Games: OTW, BOS, WPG |
Steer Clear |
Los Angeles (1.05) – 1 Games: CBJ |
Columbus (1.57) – 2 Games: @LA, @SJ |
Nashville (1.80) – 2 Games: @MIN, ANH |
Edmonton (1.81) – 2 Games: @NYR, @NJ |
Chicago (1.90) – 2 Games: @ANH, @PHX |
Wednesday, February 5 to Tuesday, February 11 |
Best Bets |
Philadelphia (2.26) – 2 Games: COL, CGY |
NY Islanders (2.26) – 2 Games: CGY, COL |
New Jersey (2.21) – 2 Games: EDM, @WSH |
Tampa Bay (2.21) – 2 Games: TOR, DET |
NY Rangers (2.16) – 2 Games: EDM, @PIT |
Steer Clear |
Los Angeles (1.05) – 1 Games: CBJ |
Minnesota (1.10) – 1 Games: NSH |
Columbus (1.57) – 2 Games: @LA, @SJ |
Winnipeg (1.76) – 2 Games: @WSH, @STL |
Nashville (1.80) – 2 Games: @MIN, ANH |
Thursday, February 6 to Wednesday, February 12 |
Best Bets |
Philadelphia (2.26) – 2 Games: COL, CGY |
NY Islanders (2.26) – 2 Games: CGY, COL |
New Jersey (2.21) – 2 Games: EDM, @WSH |
Tampa Bay (2.21) – 2 Games: TOR, DET |
NY Rangers (2.16) – 2 Games: EDM, @PIT |
Steer Clear |
Anaheim (1.00) – 1 Games: @NSH |
Chicago (1.05) – 1 Games: @PHX |
Los Angeles (1.05) – 1 Games: CBJ |
Pittsburgh (1.05) – 1 Games: NYR |
San Jose (1.05) – 1 Games: CBJ |