Forensics: Is Palat a rookie keeper or a sell high?

If Ondrej Palat is not yet on the fantasy radar in your league it is somewhat understandable. Palat is a 22-year-old rookie who was drafted in the seventh round in 2011 by Tampa Bay. He went on to sign his entry-level deal a few months later and had a brief cup of coffee with Tampa Bay last season. Palat posted typical numbers for a young forward called up in his first line of duty and posted four points in 14 games.

2012-2013 Regular Season

GP	G	A	P	PntPG	Pace	+/-	PIM	Shots	GW	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	PPTOI	%PP	%SH	TOI/G	%TOI
14	2	2	4	0.29	23	5	0	16	1	0	0	0	0	00:19	6.4	17.4	11:44	19.3

One off-season later and Palat is gradually working his way onto the fantasy scene and by now he must be on your radar. Courtesy of Frozen Pool, here is a look at Palat's statistics so far this year. With 31 points in 56 games he is posting respectable numbers for a rookie. What is most impressive is his plus-20 rating.

2013-2014 Regular Season

GP	G	A	P	PntPG	Pace	+/-	PIM	Shots	GW	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	PPTOI	%PP	%SH	TOI/G	%TOI
56	11	20	31	0.55	45	20	18	109	2	0	1	1	2	01:03	19.0	36.1	17:16	28.2

Palat did not exactly come out blazing this season. Taking a look at his first quarter summary he actually had a really slow start with just five points in the first 20 games, only taking 28 shots on goal.

First Quarter Summary

GP	G	A	P	PntPG	Pace	+/-	PIM	Shots	GW	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	PPTOI	%PP	%SH	TOI/G	%TOI
20	3	2	5	0.25	21	0	6	28	1	0	0	0	0	00:13	3.5	32.7	14:15	23.3

Palat has slowly improved his numbers and below is a snapshot of his second quarter.

You will notice he posted a plus nine during this 20-game span and increased his shots on goal from the 28 in the previous quarter to 45 SOG. His power play time also began to increase as a result of his strong play and also the unfortunate injury to Lightning forward Steven Stamkos. To be expected, Palat's point production also increased from five points in the previous quarter to 11 points in the second quarter.

Second Quarter Summary

GP	G	A	P	PntPG	Pace	+/-	PIM	Shots	GW	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	PPTOI	%PP	%SH	TOI/G	%TOI
20	3	8	11	0.55	45	9	8	45	0	0	0 📢 advertisement:	1	1	01:31	26.6	39.6	18:49	30.6

Palat continued his improving trend and so far he is having a great third quarter. Below is a breakdown of his almost point-per-game pace (15 in 16) and Palat's continued success in the plus/minus department.

Third Quarter Summary

GP	G	A	P	PntPG	Pace	+/-	PIM	Shots	GW	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	PPTOI	%PP	%SH	TOI/G	%TOI
16	5	10	15	0.94	77	11	4	36	1	0	1	0	1	01:31	31.8	36.4	19:07	31.4

Palat was likely snapped off the waiver wire in most leagues by this point. If he is still around, it would be in your best interests to make a claim, especially while Stamkos remains out. Since Stamkos' injury, the Palat-Johnson-St. Louis line has become a staple in Tampa Bay. In fact the trio has climbed the overall line rankings and is one of the most productive lines in the league.

Let's take a look at this season's most productive lines. You will see that the temporary Tampa trio rank right alongside the Capitals and Blues top guns respectively.

Rank	Line	Points
1	BOS-IGINLA,JAROME – BOS-KREJCI,DAVID – BOS-LUCIC,MILAN	105
2	TOR-BOZAK,TYLER – TOR-KESSEL,PHIL – TOR-VAN RIEMSDYK,JAMES	91
3	CHI-HOSSA,MARIAN – CHI-SHARP,PATRICK – CHI-TOEWS,JONATHAN	77
4	NYI-OKPOSO,KYLE – NYI-TAVARES,JOHN – NYI-VANEK,THOMAS	73
5	ANA-GETZLAF,RYAN – ANA-PENNER,DUSTIN – ANA-PERRY,COREY	62
5	OTT-MACARTHUR,CLARKE – OTT-RYAN,BOBBY – OTT-TURRIS,KYLE	62
6	PHI-GIROUX,CLAUDE – PHI-HARTNELL,SCOTT – PHI-SIMMONDS,WAYNE – PHI-VORACEK,JAKUB	59
7	PIT-CROSBY,SIDNEY – PIT-DUPUIS,PASCAL – PIT-KUNITZ,CHRIS	57
7	MTL-DESHARNAIS,DAVID – MTL-GALLAGHER,BRENDAN – MTL-PACIORETTY,MAX	57
7	WPG-LADD,ANDREW – WPG-LITTLE,BRYAN – WPG-WHEELER,BLAKE	57
8	STL-BOUWMEESTER,JAY – STL-PIETRANGELO,ALEX	55
9	DAL-BENN,JAMIE – DAL-NICHUSHKIN,VALERI – DAL-SEGUIN,TYLER	54
10	MTL-MARKOV,ANDREI – MTL-SUBBAN,P.K.	51
11	T.B-JOHNSON,TYLER – T.B-PALAT,ONDREJ – T.B-ST. LOUIS,MARTIN	50
11	WSH-BACKSTROM,NICKLAS – WSH-BROUWER,TROY – WSH-JOHANSSON,MARCUS – WSH-OVECHKIN,ALEXANDER	50
12	STL-BACKES,DAVID – STL-OSHIE,T.J. – STL-STEEN,ALEXANDER	49

This line combination has also been responsible for half of Palat's points this season. One positive note is that Johnson and Palat seem to have great chemistry which should bode well for Palat when the inevitable reunion of Stamkos and St. Louis after the Olympic break. In fact Johnson has been on the ice for 25 of Palat's 31 points.

Total Points for Ondrej Palat : 31
Str	On Ice Line Combination	Points	%Total Points
EV	JOHNSON,TYLER – PALAT,ONDREJ – ST. LOUIS,MARTIN	16	51.61%
EV	JOHNSON,TYLER – PALAT,ONDREJ – PURCELL,EDWARD	4	12.9%
EV	KILLORN,ALEX – KUCHEROV,NIKITA – PALAT,ONDREJ	3	9.68%
EV	JOHNSON,TYLER – PALAT,ONDREJ – PANIK,RICHARD	2	6.45%
SH	JOHNSON,TYLER – PALAT,ONDREJ	2	6.45%
EV	FILPPULA,VALTTERI – KILLORN,ALEX – PALAT,ONDREJ	1	3.23%
EV	JOHNSON,TYLER – PALAT,ONDREJ – PURCELL,EDWARD – ST. LOUIS,MARTIN	1	3.23%
EV	CROMBEEN,BRANDON – PALAT,ONDREJ – THOMPSON,NATE	1	3.23%
PP	KILLORN,ALEX – KUCHEROV,NIKITA – PALAT,ONDREJ	1	3.23%

Final Forensic Notes:

Expect Palat to accumulate points at a .8 per game pace until Stamkos returns. After that, it is likely that his point per game pace will drop to .6-65 due to the obvious decline in ice time and power play time.

Palat has taken an average of 2.25 shots per game over his past 36 games. This works out to be 185 shots over the course of a season – a nice bonus for leagues that count SOG.

Important: Palat's success seems to be very reliant on how much he is playing alongside St. Louis. If you look closer at his Frozen Pool profile you will see that in the first quarter of this season he played with St. Louis 0% of the time, in the second quarter 56% of the time, and in the third quarter he has been on a line with St. Louis 81% of the time. These statistics are right in line with Palat's point production.

Palat is a definite sell high before Stamkos returns – coax your trading partners with his great plus/minus and recent hot streak.

Previously in Frozen Pool Forensics:

Paul Stastny

Olympic Snubs

UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 27 - 19:12	DET	vs	TOR
Dec 27 - 19:12	BUF	vs	CHI
Dec 27 - 19:12	CBJ	vs	BOS
Dec 27 - 19:12	N.J	vs	CAR
Dec 27 - 20:12	DAL	vs	MIN
Dec 27 - 20:12	STL	vs	NSH
Dec 27 - 21:12	UTA	vs	COL
Dec 27 - 22:12	S.J	vs	VGK