March 6, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-03-06

What a great couple of days of trades. I didn’t imagine there would be that much action. The past couple of deadlines have been stinkers but this one was a beauty. It was great to have the action stretch over a couple of days, which technically limited the number of “deadline day” deals but certainly contributed to a solid pace that allowed us to digest each move reasonably.

 

There may not have been the volume of moves we wanted to see but it wasn’t that light on quantity and the quality of the players moved was top notch. Very exciting stuff.

 

I had a blast breaking stuff down in my first deadline as editor. Dobber did most of the heavy lifting and rightly so. He's got his name on the banner and he's worked for years to get the readership he has. You want to hear what he has to say. He’s also blazingly fast at pumping out those trade reaction pieces. I don’t know how he does it. Obviously, he’s the best in the biz.

 

Still, I'm proud of what I contributed.

 

Most of my work was in the forum, where I made my name here. If you want to check out or belatedly join the conversation on the deadline check out our deadline chat. We didn't do the live chat on the homepage as we have done in the past. I hope that wasn't an issue for anyone. I thought things went great doing it in the forum.

 

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The biggest bombs were obviously the Roberto Luongo deal to Florida from a couple of days ago and the Martin St. Louis/Ryan Callahan captain swap between the Lightning and Rangers. So many story lines here.

I was caught off guard by the Luongo deal only because of how much the Canucks are paying to have him not play for them and how long that is taking place. This has the chance to become as embarrassing as the Yashin situation on Long Island.

 

You have to look at the cap penalties to Vancouver if Luongo retires:

 

 

 

 

 

That is staggering, jaw dropping and mind numbing. They are completely at his mercy. Of course, the cap will go up and this will become less of an issue the longer he plays but still, grizzly.

 

Elliotte Friedman, as usual, has the low down on how things played out between Vancouver and Luongo.

 

That Luongo was headed to Florida where Tim Thomas was playing made for some great jokes.

 

Naturally, that situation was resolved quickly as the Panthers moved Thomas to Dallas where he will backup Kari Lehtonen. Solid pickup for Dallas. They should be a playoff team with Vancouver likely dropping out and Thomas can give Lehtonen a reprieve here and there, something Dan Ellis was incapable of. Thomas' fantasy value takes a nosedive though.

 

Luongo's reaction to Thomas being moved:

 

 

 

 

 

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The St. Louis situation is even dicier. We don't know all the details but the more I hear and read the more it sounds like this was not really about the Olympic "snub". That issue may have simply what brought things to a boil. I don't want to say too much other than that St. Louis brought it every night for Tampa Bay even after requesting a deal. He was a key component in keeping this team afloat with Steven Stamkos out. I respect the hell out of that. Even the biggest haters of basketball can recall how noxious the final days of Vince Carter in Toronto were. This was handled much better on both ends.

 

I don't think St. Louis loses too much value heading to New York. There is a lot of talent there and he has a chance to be a catalyst for improvement. They need some help scoring and he'll bring that. He dragged a group of talented but inexperienced youngsters to respectability all while maintaining a point-per-game pace in Tampa Bay. I'm expecting the same in New York.

 

He hopped on a plane ASAP yesterday and managed to get into the Rangers-Leafs contest in New York and was right back on a line with Brad Richards (who is the big winner in all of this) as well as Carl Hagelin

 

Check out New York's lines from last night courtesy of Frozen Pool:

 

Frequency

Strength

Line Combination

24.63%

EV

62 HAGELIN,CARL – 19 RICHARDS,BRAD – 26 ST. LOUIS,MARTIN

20.96%

EV

20 KREIDER,CHRIS – 61 NASH,RICK – 21 STEPAN,DEREK

15.07%

EV

16 BRASSARD,DERICK – 15 DORSETT,DEREK – 67 POULIOT,BENOIT

12.13%

EV

22 BOYLE,BRIAN – 13 CARCILLO,DANIEL – 28 MOORE,DOMINIC

2.21%

PP

16 BRASSARD,DERICK – 67 POULIOT,BENOIT – 19 RICHARDS,BRAD – 26 ST. LOUIS,MARTIN

 

St. Louis was held scoreless with three shots on goal in his debut. Kind of an inauspicious beginning. I only watched the first period but I though he had a couple of dangerous shifts. It remains to be seen what else comes about.

 

This is nothing new to Rangers fans but no Stepan or Nash on the top power play unit is disconcerting. You'd hope St. Louis' presence could get those two going. Maybe his presence alone will help open up some opportunities but that remains to be seen. One thing that I think will die is the whole scoring by committee thing they've had going where they've rolled three scoring lines. I think having St. Louis allows them to put a little bit more emphasis on having a hierarchy. Let's see how it plays out.

 

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Stamkos, who is returning tonight definitely loses with St. Louis gone. It's long been the contention of Malkin vouchers (like myself) that Stamkos' numbers have been helped along by St. Louis' brilliance. This will be the test. Except, Stamkos is also coming back from a horrific injury and probably won't be himself anyway so I'm not sure how much we can read into these final 20 games.

 

I'm also not sure how the psychology of this all plays out. I presumed that Stamkos would return and the team would hit a lull because of how they'd all rallied together and learned stepped into bigger roles with him gone. A big star returning can sometimes have a negative effect when everyone kind of falls back into old patterns and expects too much of the star.

 

Now with St. Louis gone that throws whole other variables into play. Callahan being added just scrambles things even worse. The lines are going to be a bit all over the place but I suspect we see something like Alex Killorn and Teddy Purcell on the top line with Stamkos because he's comfortable with those two having played with them before. Line two is Richard Panik, Valtteri Filppula and Ryan Callahan as a top checking unit. Line three is then the youngsters Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov. That's just me thinking out loud though. What do you think?

 

The power play combinations will also hold great importance and I'd guess it's Stamkos, Purcell and Johnson for sure with Filppula sliding in as the fourth forward but that's up in the air as well.

 

Some winners and losers to be sure.

 

Stamkos may not lose much long term though. The Lightning have a bounty of young talent that they've groomed well. Johnson is a real intriguing possibility to replace St. Louis. So is Jonathan Drouin who has been deemed the successor ever since he was drafted last summer.

 

There was a question in the forum about whether or not there was any reason to be concerned about Drouin with his numbers taking a bit of a dive this season. 

 

First off, no. He's right on track. 

 

Second, I'm not even sure his numbers have fallen off. He scored 105 points in 49 games last season, which is 2.14 per game. He's scored 76 in 36 so far this season, which is 2.11 per game. That's not an improvement but the Mooseheads aren't as talented as they were a year ago. A certain someone is killing it for the Avs right now – Nathan MacKinnon.

 

Also asked, "Will Drouin be able to have a similar impact as MacKinnon has this season?"

I doubt it. MacKinnon always had the look of someone who would come in and produce right away. I'm not going to pretend like I saw what he has done so far coming because I didn't. I was sceptical the Avs could do anything with their poor defensemen. Enter Patrick Roy, dog whisperer and the Avs are flying MacKinnon included.

 

Drouin needs more seasoning. His game is less about physicality and more about vision so it will take time to adapt to the speed of the game. When he's ready though, he could pick up where St. Louis left off. Big (figuratively) shoes to fill.

 

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As for Callahan, being in Tampa doesn't change much. He's struggled with injuries all season and he's not going to step right into a top line or top power play job (I don't think) so it's not like the opportunity is really much better. Maybe a fresh start gets him going. He seems the type to rise to a challenge. I'm betting against any improvement though.

 

Apparently he and the Rangers were very close on finally coming to an agreement on dollars but a NTC was still a sticking point. Sather is loath to hand out NTCs. Even Henrik Lundqvist doesn't have one that I know about. But really, what happened was St. Louis became a serious and the Rangers reverted to starf***er mode and rightfully so. St. Louis is an upgrade even though Callahan is a beauty. So they never really got the chance to finally iron things out. They probably would have come to an agreement if not for this trade.

 

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The Leafs were silent at the deadline but didn't necessarily need to make a move. They are a flawed team but it's hard to see what was available. They are kind of cap strapped with David Bolland due back shortly. He's basically their deadline pick up.

 

They held lead into the third before a couple of costly turnovers with the man advantage gave the led to two Rangers shorties and a tie game in a flash.

 

Tyler Bozak ended the game in overtime. His second goal of the game. His first was a nice penalty shot, where he excels and the winner came on a nice feed from Phil Kessel. This team is too dangerous at four-on-four because of Kessel's speed.

 

Cody Franson made one of the two turnovers for the Leafs. He's been scoreless since the Olympics (only four games) but that's got to be a source of aggravation. If he isn't scoring he really isn't good for much.

 

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The Rangers' other deadline acquisition, Raphael Diaz, was not available for the game. Expect him in the next one though. He could definitely step into John Moore's minutes (he only skated 11 last night) or perhaps Kevin Klein's (they are both righties) and expect some second unit PP time.

 

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Did you enjoy Braden Holtby's last start for the Caps this season? It was a beauty. He allowed four goals on 18 shots before getting yanked mid-way through the second. He avoided the loss thanks to a late push by the Caps but it was too little too late.

 

I kid about Revoltby, of course. This isn't all on him and surely he'll start again but the acquisition of Jaroslav Halak is definitely an affront on his fantasy value and status as Caps starter. No one questions he is the guy there long term but the Caps need wins so Halak may be the guy.

 

A few people thought I was too harsh on Halak in my assessment of the Blues swap for Ryan Miller. Others think Halak is just a bad goalie who benefitted from a good team. The truth, as is so often the case, is probably in the middle.

 

The Blues are a loaded team who play a great game they made things easy on Halak. The Sabres are a tanking team in the middle of a teardown but they've got a good coach demanding accountability. It isn't working much but Miller's numbers improved under Ted Nolan. Halak wouldn't have been horrible there but he also wouldn't have won many games.

 

In Washington he's got a chance to win some more games because the Capitals are a more competitive team. They are also nearly as bad as the Sabres are defensively. They allow the fourth most shots per game in the league (33.4), just 0.9 shots per game less than Buffalo. If Halak was going to get "exposed" in Buffalo the same is likely to happen in Washington.

 

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I don't think that will happen. I think he'll post something around a 0.912 save percentage and a 2.70 goals-against average and win slightly more games than he loses. 

 

Considering what he was facing in Buffalo, I'll take it. If nothing else, the change is something you can do to at least salvage Halak's trade value while hunting his ultimate replacement.

 

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At least the Caps power play was clicking last night. Ovechkin did Ovechkin things. Nicklas Backstrom notched two assists to give him 50 on the season. This guy needs to get more love.

 

Dustin Penner, the Caps' deadline acquisition, was in the lineup and played on the top line and second power play unit. He went scoreless. Let's see how long that top line nonsense lasts. I'm guessing not long. Get Marcus Johansson back up there.

 

Consider it advantage Mike Green in the Green-John Carlson defenseman battle. Green lost the power play minutes 1:51 to 5:23 but notched two assists to Carlson's one and played more minutes overall (24:00 to 22:06). 

 

Of course Green went minus-three and Carlson minus-two so maybe they both lost.

 

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Islanders fans are going to hate this but Andrew MacDonald made his Flyers debut and skated 18:07 going plus-two. Not enough nights like that for MacDonald on Long Island. 

 

He saw no power play time and really isn't a threat outside of leagues that track blocks because most all of his earlier value derived from being on the Islanders' top power play unit. That ain't happening in Philly with Kimmo Timonen and Mark Streit present.

 

You think that Claude Giroux enjoys playing the Capitals? He notched four goals and six points in back-to-back contests against them. Unfortunately, they won't face each other again this season (barring playoffs).

 

 

Jakub Voracek enjoyed the Capitals' porous defense as well scoring three goals and five points over these back-to-back contests.

 

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So the Ottawa Senators sure don't seem like they want to be a playoff team. They got dusted last night by the Flames 4-1.

 

Craig Anderson was on the hook for this loss but at this point I'm not sure it really matters who they put in net. The team just doesn't have much fire. A lot of fingers being pointed at team captain Jason Spezza. They have not played well with him in the lineup.

 

The Senators did acquire winger Ales Hemsky to play with Spezza and he was in the lineup last night making little impact. If the Senators wanted to build a soft finesse line then they made the right move. Hemsky hasn't played with fire in a while. He did torch the Sens for two goals the other night and maybe that's why the move was made. Or maybe the price (a third and a fifth) was just too cheap to pass up.

 

And who knows, he might be a fit. This was only one game. I remember a time when Hemsky had a fire in his belly well beyond his stature. Made him a great player to watch. Also led to a ton of injuries. I wonder if it's the injuries or the losing that broke Hemsky. Probably a little of both.

 

I still think that Hemsky can be salvaged but he needs a return to the playoffs, to meaningful hockey. Doesn't look like that will come this season in Ottawa. There's still time but it's running out.

 

Don't be shocked if Spezza is dealt this summer. They took the temperature for him at the deadline but obviously didn't get blown away by the offers. The summer is when the big moves typically take place.

 

Kyle Turris has passed Spezza as the Sens' number one centerman. He scored his first goal and point since the break. A small sample size sure but he'd struggled prior to the break as well. Sitting on just three points in his last nine games. Looking like a terrible end to a breakout season.

 

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Mark Giordano and Sean Monahan led the way for the Flames with two assists apiece. They were also first and second on the team in power play time so the production comes as no surprise. These two are the future of the Flames.

 

Mike Cammalleri, who was not dealt, found a way to score a goal. Obviously sticking in Calgary isn't the best for his fantasy value but he can still be quietly productive.

 

Jiri Hudler managed an assist, his first point since the break. He has really started to slow down in the second half with just five points over his last 15. Probably time to pull the pin on him.

 

Markus Granlund scored his first NHL goal and has points in back-to-back games now. Not seeing a ton of ice time but definitely enough to be relevant in deeper leagues down the stretch. Get him on your radar but please do not fall into the trap of thinking he's going to be great by prorating his numbers from the final 20 games over a full-season's worth of games. That rarely works.

 

Reto Berra was dealt to the Avalanche for a second rounder. Decent return for a pending UFA who didn't show a ton in Calgary. Some took issue with my chastising of Berra's value in my Autobots/Decepticons piece a couple weeks back and to be fair I don't watch the Flames much so maybe he's looked better than the numbers indicate but the numbers indicate terrible things. So in my mind getting a second for a guy they signed for free, didn't play well and wasn't getting re-signed is a big win.

 

Joni Ortio got the start and was very solid. He's only made two appearances so far but both have been great. Maybe he's got some sneaky value down the stretch here if the Flames want to play spoiler. 

 

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The Canadiens and Ducks skated to a draw in Anaheim last night.

 

Dustin Tokarski was in goal for the Habs making his first NHL start in nearly two years. He was splendid stopping 39 of 42 shots. Definitely proving himself a reasonable alternative to Peter Budaj while Carey Price remains on the shelf.

 

The Canadiens also acquired Devan Dubnyk today, who has the "dubious" honour of being the first guy to have salary retained by two teams while getting traded to a third. I don't even know how much the Canadiens have to pay the guy but it ain't much with the Oilers and Predators footing most of the bill.

Dubnyk was acquired as insurance against another goalie injury while Price is out. That might be reason for worry among Price owners but I'm not sure this changes much. All it says is they didn't really have any other options in the system. 

 

And just so we are clear, the Habs have no intention of playing this guy. He was sent to their minor league affiliate and when Price returns Dubnyk will become Tokarski's backup in the minors. What a fall from… relevance?

 

This might be the last we see of Dubnyk.

 

The Habs made a couple of other additions at the deadline: Mike Weaver and some Thomas Vanek guy you may have heard of. Neither was in the lineup last night. More on the Vanek deal here.

 

Lars Eller was also not in the lineup for some strange reason.

 

Max Pacioretty and Brendan Gallagher each had a goal and fired six shots in this contest. David Desharnais had one assist but is living the dream skating between these two. No matter what shakes out with the rest of the lineup this line sticks together.

 

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To the surprise of many the Ducks didn't do anything on deadline day. They did most of their work the previous day shipping out Viktor Fasth and Dustin Penner, while acquiring Stephane Robidas. Many felt those moves were to clear out some cap space for a big move, possibly even Vanek. Maybe they were in on him but ultimately they stood pat. There's something to be said for leading the league and not needing to make a move.

 

Nick Bonino has been eased back into the lineup returning from injury but was fully on last night. He notched his first point since returning and fired off seven shots on goal.

 

For those wondering who grabs the prized top line spot with Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf now that Penner is gone, it's Kyle Palmieri getting the first kick at the can.

 

The Ducks' lines from last night courtesy of Frozen Pool:

 

Frequency

Strength

Line Combination

18.45%

EV

15 GETZLAF,RYAN – 21 PALMIERI,KYLE – 10 PERRY,COREY

11.01%

EV

39 BELESKEY,MATT – 7 COGLIANO,ANDREW – 11 KOIVU,SAKU

10.71%

EV

13 BONINO,NICK – 62 MAROON,PATRICK – 33 SILFVERBERG,JAKOB

8.63%

PP

13 BONINO,NICK – 15 GETZLAF,RYAN – 21 PALMIERI,KYLE – 10 PERRY,COREY

7.44%

EV

18 JACKMAN,TIM – 34 WINNIK,DANIEL

 

Palmieri was also up on the top power play unit. That may not hold when Teemu Selanne is in the lineup though (he was out on a maintenance day).

 

If you are wondering who that blank forward on the fourth line was. It was actually Luca Sbisa playing some limited minutes up front.

 

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Some bad news on the injury front. Looks like Pavel Datsyuk is getting shutdown for three weeks. I knew him battling through injury for the Olympics was bad news. Looks like that's correct.

 

This does not help matters for Gustav Nyquist or Johan Franzen who have been rather productive since the Olympic break but perhaps those two are good enough to remain productive.

 

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If you want my personal take or some more elaboration on any of yesterday's deals please fire away and I'll be happy to follow up in the comments or in tomorrow's ramblings.

 

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If I can leave you with one last thought as you head towards your trade deadline take heed of the fact that sometimes the best moves are the ones you don’t make. Be proactive don’t force something that isn’t there.

 

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You can follow me on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw.

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