Looking Ahead: Week 23

Bob Fisher

2014-03-14

MikaelGranlund


Five players to target in Week 23.


Here are some teams to target and avoid for the next week or two, several players to target that may be available in your league as well as teams that play a light schedule in the upcoming week.

 

San Jose Sharks = Target

 

Games: 7 (3H/4A)

Favorable Matchups:

    – @ NY Islanders

        > Worst defensive team

        > 2nd worst penalty kill

        > 37 goals allowed in past nine games (4.11 GAA)

    – vs. Florida

        > 4th worst defensive team

        > Worst penalty kill

        > 8th most shots allowed per game

    – vs. Washington

        > 7th worst defensive team

        > 7th worst penalty kill

        > 4th most shots allowed per game

 

The Sharks have scored 30 goals in seven games since the Olympic break (4.29 GPG).  The return of Logan Couture has definitely helped that.  Also, like I predicted, Brent Burns is back with Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski and has four goals in his last four games.  San Jose is surging up the Pacific division standings and looking to take over the top spot from the struggling Anaheim Ducks.  The upcoming Sharks schedule features several defensively-inept teams like the Islanders, Panthers, Capitals, Flames and Oilers.

 

Tampa Bay Lightning = Consider

 

Games: 6 (3H/3A)

Favorable Matchups:

    – @ Toronto

        > 5th worst defensive team

        > 3rd worst penalty kill

        > Most shots allowed per game

    – @ Ottawa

        > 3rd worst defensive team

        > 5th worst penalty kill

        > 3rd most shots allowed per game

    – vs. Ottawa

        > See above

 

It's only a matter of time before Steven Stamkos gets back into the swing of things and starts sniping opposing goalies with regularity.  As I was writing this, Stamkos was credited with his first points (goal and an assist) since his return from a broken leg.  Let the flood gates open!  Opponents like the Panthers, Maple Leafs and Senators (twice) will not only help Stamkos, but also will keep Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson rolling.

 

Washington Capitals = Beware

 

Games: 6 (3H/3A)

Unfavorable Matchups:

    – @ Los Angeles

        > Best defensive team

        > 3rd fewest shots allowed per game

        > Allowed 11 goals in seven games since Olympic break (1.57 GAA)

    – @ San Jose

        > 4th best defensive team

        > 6th best penalty kill

        > 5th fewest shots allowed per game

    – vs. Los Angeles

        > See above

 

The Capitals' offensive has dried up as of late with only five goals in their past four games, including being shutout twice (by Eastern Conference powerhouses Boston and Pittsburgh).  I wouldn't look for the Caps to turns things around in the next two weeks either.  Their next two games are manageable against Vancouver and Toronto, but that is followed by a West Coast trip through Anaheim, Los Angeles and San Jose.  Cap that off with a visit from the Kings and Washington could be knocked out of playoff contention after this three-game road trip.

 

New York Islanders = Avoid

 

Games: 5 (4H/1A)

Unfavorable Matchups:

    – vs. San Jose

        > See above

    – vs. Minnesota

        > 5th best defensive team

        > 6th fewest shots allowed per game

        > Darcy Kuemper has had two rough outings recently, but still sits with a 2.32 GAA and .920 SV%

 

Things are pretty bleak on the Island these days.  John Tavares is out for the season thanks to the Olympics.  Thomas Vanek is gone.  Charles Wang still owns the team and Garth Snow is trying to convince people that a conditional second round pick and a prospect is what they expected for Vanek.  Outside of Kyle Okposo, the Islanders are relying on some newcomers like Anders Lee and Brock Nelson to step up and produce.  The Isles are already the worst defensive club in the league, I wouldn't rely on their offense to do much either.  Sound familiar?  That's what I said last week.  Nothing's changed.  Oh, and they play the fewest games of any team over the next two weeks.

 

 

Possible Pickups

Here's a list of some players, owned in less than 30% of Yahoo leagues, to target for the upcoming Monday to Sunday schedule.

 

Minnesota: Mikael Granlund (10%) – Six points in his past six games with a +2 and ten shots.  On a line with Zach Parise and Jason Pominville.  Fifth on the team in powerplay time per game.

 

Columbus: Nathan Horton (25%) – Three assists in his past four games alongside Brandon Dubinsky and Matt Calvert at even strength and the man advantage.  Fourth on the team in powerplay time.

 

Tampa Bay: Ondrej Palat (20%) – 11 points in nine games, dating back prior to the Olympics.  Six of those points are goals.  He's a +4 in that span and is currently skating with Valtteri Filppula and Ryan Callahan.

 

Chicago: Andrew Shaw (20%) – Four points in his past three games, including two goals, a +4 and ten shots.  Taking full advantage of his time with Jonathan Toews and Brandon Saad as well as the #1 powerplay with Toews, Patrick Kane and Patrick Sharp.

 

Nashville: Craig Smith (16%) – Three points in his past two games including goals in both contests.  +5 to go along with 12 shots in the same time!  Looks like he's enjoying Nashville without David Legwand around.

 

 

Light Day Targets

Want to know what teams to target based on their schedule landing on light days for the upcoming Monday to Sunday schedule?

 

Week: Monday, March 17th through Sunday, March 23rd

 

Monday: 8 teams

Tuesday: 24 teams

Wednesday: 8 teams

Thursday: 18 teams

Friday: 8 teams

Saturday: 22 teams

Sunday: 14 teams

 

Back to the usual schedule with Monday, Wednesday and Friday only having four games each.  Sunday has seven games and the rest have nine or more.

 

So what teams have a good schedule for the light days?

 

 

Mon

Tues

Wed

Thur

Fri

Sat

Sun

St. Louis Blues

X

 

X

 

 

X

X

Nashville Predators

 

X

X

 

X

 

X

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Chicago Blackhawks

 

X

X

 

X

 

X

Minnesota Wild

X

X

 

X

 

X

 

Tampa Bay Lightning

X

 

X

X

 

X

 

Vancouver Canucks

X

 

X

 

 

 

X

 

Friday, March 14 to Thursday, March 20

Best Bets

Montreal (4.31) – 4 Games: OTW, @BUF, COL, CBJ

Buffalo (4.28) – 4 Games: @NYI, MTL, @CGY, @EDM

Detroit (4.26) – 4 Games: EDM, @CHI, TOR, PIT

San Jose (4.20) – 4 Games: @NYI, @NYR, FLA, ANH

Vancouver (4.19) – 4 Games: @WSH, @FLA, @TB, NSH

Steer Clear

Columbus (2.81) – 3 Games: @MIN, CAR, @MTL

Boston (2.85) – 3 Games: CAR, MIN, @NJ

NY Rangers (2.94) – 3 Games: @WPG, SJ, @OTW

NY Islanders (2.94) – 3 Games: SJ, BUF, MIN

Carolina (2.97) – 3 Games: @BOS, EDM, @CBJ

Saturday, March 15 to Friday, March 21

Best Bets

Montreal (4.31) – 4 Games: OTW, @BUF, COL, CBJ

Buffalo (4.28) – 4 Games: @NYI, MTL, @CGY, @EDM

Tampa Bay (4.13) – 4 Games: NJ, VAN, @TOR, @OTW

Pittsburgh (4.10) – 4 Games: @PHI, PHI, DAL, @DET

Ottawa (4.00) – 4 Games: @MTL, COL, NYR, TB

Steer Clear

NY Islanders (2.05) – 2 Games: BUF, MIN

Anaheim (2.72) – 3 Games: @LA, WSH, @SJ

Washington (2.77) – 3 Games: TOR, @ANH, @LA

New Jersey (2.79) – 3 Games: @TB, BOS, MIN

Dallas (2.80) – 3 Games: @WPG, @PIT, @PHI

Sunday, March 16 to Saturday, March 22

Best Bets

Edmonton (4.31) – 4 Games: @CAR, NSH, BUF, CGY

San Jose (4.21) – 4 Games: @NYR, FLA, ANH, WSH

Pittsburgh (4.15) – 4 Games: PHI, DAL, @DET, TB

Montreal (4.14) – 4 Games: @BUF, COL, CBJ, @TOR

Carolina (4.06) – 4 Games: EDM, @CBJ, @CHI, @WPG

Steer Clear

NY Islanders (0.95) – 1 Games: MIN

Anaheim (1.96) – 2 Games: WSH, @SJ

New Jersey (2.84) – 3 Games: BOS, MIN, NYR

Phoenix (2.86) – 3 Games: @LA, FLA, BOS

Columbus (2.95) – 3 Games: CAR, @MTL, NYR

Monday, March 17 to Sunday, March 23

Best Bets

Minnesota (4.80) – 5 Games: @BOS, @NYI, @NJ, DET, @DET

Columbus (4.09) – 4 Games: CAR, @MTL, NYR, @NYI

Tampa Bay (4.04) – 4 Games: VAN, @TOR, @OTW, @PIT

Chicago (4.04) – 4 Games: @PHI, STL, CAR, NSH

Nashville (4.04) – 4 Games: @EDM, @VAN, @CGY, @CHI

Steer Clear

NY Islanders (2.00) – 2 Games: MIN, CBJ

Washington (2.42) – 3 Games: @ANH, @LA, @SJ

Colorado (2.75) – 3 Games: @MTL, @WPG, BOS

Carolina (2.85) – 3 Games: @CBJ, @CHI, @WPG

Phoenix (2.86) – 3 Games: @LA, FLA, BOS

Tuesday, March 18 to Monday, March 24

Best Bets

San Jose (4.35) – 4 Games: FLA, ANH, WSH, @CGY

Tampa Bay (4.20) – 4 Games: @TOR, @OTW, @PIT, OTW

Calgary (4.19) – 4 Games: BUF, NSH, @EDM, SJ

Dallas (4.11) – 4 Games: @PIT, @PHI, OTW, WPG

Columbus (4.09) – 4 Games: CAR, @MTL, NYR, @NYI

Steer Clear

NY Islanders (2.00) – 2 Games: MIN, CBJ

Vancouver (2.21) – 2 Games: NSH, BUF

Washington (2.42) – 3 Games: @ANH, @LA, @SJ

Colorado (2.75) – 3 Games: @MTL, @WPG, BOS

St. Louis (2.80) – 3 Games: @CHI, @PHI, @PIT

Wednesday, March 19 to Tuesday, March 25

Best Bets

Los Angeles (4.41) – 4 Games: WSH, FLA, @PHI, @WSH

San Jose (4.24) – 4 Games: ANH, WSH, @CGY, @EDM

Dallas (4.21) – 4 Games: @PHI, OTW, WPG, @CHI

Tampa Bay (4.20) – 4 Games: @TOR, @OTW, @PIT, OTW

Chicago (4.1) – 4 Games: STL, CAR, NSH, DAL

Steer Clear

NY Islanders (2.00) – 2 Games: CBJ, @CAR

Anaheim (2.02) – 2 Games: @SJ, FLA

Vancouver (2.21) – 2 Games: NSH, BUF

Washington (2.41) – 3 Games: @LA, @SJ, LA

Philadelphia (2.78) – 3 Games: DAL, STL, LA

Thursday, March 20 to Wednesday, March 26

Best Bets

Los Angeles (4.41) – 4 Games: WSH, FLA, @PHI, @WSH

San Jose (4.24) – 4 Games: ANH, WSH, @CGY, @EDM

Dallas (4.21) – 4 Games: @PHI, OTW, WPG, @CHI

Columbus (4.09) – 4 Games: @MTL, NYR, @NYI, DET

Ottawa (4.04) – 4 Games: TB, @DAL, @TB, @FLA

Steer Clear

Colorado (1.89) – 2 Games: BOS, @NSH

Vancouver (1.96) – 2 Games: BUF, @MIN

NY Islanders (2.00) – 2 Games: CBJ, @CAR

Winnipeg (2.00) – 2 Games: CAR, @DAL

Washington (2.41) – 3 Games: @LA, @SJ, LA

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