March 14, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-03-14

UPDATE:



It looks like both Ryan Kesler and James Neal will miss extended time.

 

Kesler has a sprained knee and will miss a couple of weeks. I think they shut him down for the year. The Canucks are drifting farther and farther from the playoff picture so there is little sense in him coming back. For fantasy owners this could be a blessing in disguise. Kesler has done little since the Olympics and this gives you an excuse to cut the cord.

 

Neal has been diagnosed with a concussion and is out indefinitely. This is really poor timing for anyone owning a Penguin in their pool as Neal is a top flight sniper. One of Jussi Jokinen or Lee Stempniak gets a bump here. 

 

 

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I imagine the majority of you aren't in playoff-mode right now. Either your pool isn't head-to-head or your league hasn't reached the playoffs yet. We have reached the playoffs in the UHL – the salary cap league I talk so much about with many DobberHockey and DobberProspects writers and forum members. I bring this up because I am genuinely on edge now that we've reached do-or-die time.

 

We've done a couple of "extras" to help make things more involved and interesting for the rest of the league. I wrote up playoff previews for each individual series. I also ran the to-date numbers at the end of our regular season to hand out awards for individual player performances.

 

Sidney Crosby won the MVP for the second straight year. Joe Pavelski and David Backes were the runners-up based on our stats. Ryan Getzlaf would've been MVP but he toiled for most of the year on a non-playoff team so he was out of the running.

 

Ben Bishop narrowly won the Vezina, Nathan MacKinnon took the Rookie of the Year and PK Subban got his second straight Norris.

Once the playoffs are over I'll figure out who the best player was from the two finalists to hand out the Conn Smythe.

 

Another manager in our league – Praba from the forums – has input our rosters onto EA's NHL14 and is running a sim playoffs giving us one round of results per day. It's been a real hit.

 

If you have the time/energy/desire these are some fun ways to increase manager involvement in a league. What sort of "extras" does your league engage in?

 

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We had a comment yesterday about links in the ramblings making it tough to read. The player links are here to stay because it makes looking up FrozenPool profiles super easy. And I'm a fan of adding links to external material as well because it's just more to chew on.

 

As a reader of the ramblings five out of seven days a week I can say I've never had an issue with too many links but I'll ask, was this an issue with viewing on a mobile device?

 

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Zdeno Chara scored his 16th goal of the season. Could he reach 20? He's come close scoring 19 a few years ago. He's also scored 17 and 16 twice before. His move to the front of the net on the Bruins' power play has really rescued his dwindling fantasy value.

 

Did you know Chara has more goals than assists? That was a funny quirk that teammate Torey Krug had rolling for an extended stretch to start the season but eventually dwindled. Chara has become a statistical anomaly.

 

Speaking of Krug, he was scratched last night allowing Dougie Hamilton to draw back into the lineup.

 

The culprit here is Andrej Meszaros whom the Bruins seem intent on extracting full value from. He has been a fixture on the Bruins' power play since arriving from Philly. Not sure I like this trend. I get that there's more upside in having a defenseman running your power play that you also trust to play in other situations but Krug was doing some great work as a power play specialist.

 

It was probably easier to make this decision with Krug struggling having scored just one point in the last seven games. Still, the Bruins power play is humming above 20% and in the NHL's top 10. Krug has been a big part of that with only 10 defensemen having scored more than his 18 PPP so far.

 

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Not much offense for the Coyotes but Shane Doan got an assist. That gives him seven points in nine games since the Olympics. Really nice to see him get back on track after struggling following a bout of Rocky Mountain Fever.

 

If your league scores hits you might want to consider Brandon McMillan. He landed five last night to give him 26 in just eight games since getting the call.

 

Martin Erat sat out last night with a UBI.

 

Mike Smith his best hockey since the Conference Finals run. You have to love his confidence:


“With where we are in the standings, I have to be the best player on the ice every game out or we’re not going to have a chance to make the playoffs,” Smith says.

 

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Oh my, the Sabres got outshot 55-23 last night. Michal Neuvirth would have seen less rubber had he taken a shift at a tire shop. Good on him stopping 51 of the 54 he faced. He's winless in his two starts for Buffalo but he's done a great job of stopping pucks.

 

Tyler Ennis extended his scoring streak to three games after beating Cam Ward on a penalty shot. Ennis has been scoring right up around a point-per-game in the second half and is a must grab off the wire if he's somehow still available.

 

Drew Stafford is another one who has turned his game around. He has goals in three straight and 15 points in his last 16 games. I'm pretty sure Stafford's been riding a nearly two-year slump before this recent uptick. He shot just 5.0% last season and is at just 8.8% this season. He's a career 11.0% shooter. It's nice when regression to the mean works in positive ways

 

Cory Conacher has two points in three games with the Sabres while skating some top-six minutes. I'm not a big believer in him but he's doing what he has to do so far.

 

Nicolas Deslauriers had seven hits last night and has 17 in four games so far. Serious rotisserie league potential here although his plus/minus might cripple you.

 

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You know how the Hurricanes fired 55 shots? 13 of those came from Jeff Skinner. Who does he think he is, mini Ovechkin? *checks plus/minus* Yup, checks out.

 

Skinner scored a goal last night giving him points in four straight. This following a six-game drought. Skinner has been VERY streaky this year. The positive is that he has been relentless with shooting so in rotisserie leagues he is always being productive in some manner. It's also a positive to see that even if he isn't scoring you know he's getting chances so the streak will break eventually.

 

I'll bet Skinner would be around the point-per-game mark if Eric Staal wasn't slumping so hard. I think Staal must be hurt. That or he and Jordan had some Freaky Friday body swap insanity or something because Jordan Staal is on a roll.

 

Jordan is really clicking with Jiri Tlusty and Alex Semin right now having scored nine points in the last four games. It seems to me that Semin is the key here. When Eric and Skinner were rolling they were doing it with Semin. Introduce Elias Lindholm on that line and things go South for those two but Jordan starts picking things up and Jiri Tlusty starts to look like he's alive.

 

As frustrating as Semin can be when he's either hurt or not trying he can get hot for extended stretches. Case in point, he's got 29 points in his last 31 games but had just seven in his first 22.

 

By the way, I'm still not buying Tlusty. He's losing PP minutes to the incomparable Andrei Loktionov.

 

Cam Ward got another W so he's earned some rope.

 

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Well, well, well. Sergei Bobrovsky is human, after all. Still, this season is starting to look like a repeat of last where Bob goes off down the stretch swinging fantasy leagues all over the place. It is far – FAR – too early to jump to these conclusions but Bob's split stats have the making of a H2H playoff hero.

 

His career March numbers: 19-7-6, 2.02 GAA, 0.932 Sv%

 

His career April numbers: 10-5-2, 2.41 GAA, 0.921 Sv%

 

The sample size is too small on that but it's something I'll keep in mind around mid-season next year. Oh and you don’t want to look at his February numbers.

 

Great rotisserie game by Brandon Dubinsky. Two assists, one shorthanded, two PIM, five shots, four hits. I swear he's been a top-20 player in deep rotisserie leagues.

 

Jack Johnson has hit a real funk despite frequently leading the Blue Jackets in power play time. He's scoreless in six straight, just when I thought he was turning his season around.

 

Check out Cam Atkinson fumbling the game away in the shootout.

 

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Logan Couture has eight points in eight games since returning from injury but four of those games were goose eggs. Really feast or famine right now.

 

Patrick Marleau is glad to have his centerman back with nine points in those eight games.

 

Anyone else think that the Sharks move on from Dan Boyle after this season? He notched an assist last night but has really struggled all season. He's obviously battling some injuries but it's probably as much old age as injuries. He's got just 27 points in 60 games and if this keeps up it'll be two straight seasons at less than a point every other game. I thought last season was a bit of small sample bad luck but clearly this guy is running out of gas.

 

Who thinks Boyle could have a late career renaissance? Nik Lidstrom did it. So did Teemu Selanne. Jaromir Jagr is doing it this season.

 

The other question is who replaces Boyle if he's let go? I don't like any of the internal options. The top UFAs are Andrei Markov, Matt Niskanen and Marek Zidlicky. Two of those options are as ancient as Boyle but are showing more jump this season and Niskanen doesn't seem realistic for some reason.

 

Something that crossed my mind is the Penguins giving up on Kris Letang and shipping him before that massive extension kicks in. I could see the Sharks as a real destination. Their GM loves to make the big splash and Letang is a natural replacement for Boyle. The Penguins may want to escape the health concerns and contract and uneven play of Letang. Anyways, that's just me spitballin'.

 

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Hey! Steven Stamkos, remember that guy? He scored his first goal and points since returning from injury. His goal was classic Stamkos, ripping the one-timer on the power play. It was the Lightning's fifth goal of the game but it turns out they needed it as they allowed the Panthers to creep within one with a couple of late goals.

 

 

I have real concerns about the Lightning down the stretch. It's clear that Stamkos isn't going to be the same down the stretch, though he can obviously still rip it. And everyone else must adjust into new roles with Stamkos returning and St. Louis leaving.

 

Their win did break their five-game losing streak but it was against the Panthers and with Dan Ellis in net to boot. They also still allowed four goals, making it six straight that they've allowed at least three goals against. If they can't right the ship here Ben Bishop's fantasy value is going to nose-dive at the absolute worst time.

 

The good news is that Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson just keep chugging along.

Palat has six points in his last three games skating on the second line with Ryan Callahan and Valtteri Filppula (who had three assists last night).

 

Johnson has points in five straight and has taken Edward Purcell's spot on the top line alongside Stamkos.

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A recent forum question asked who was preferable in a points-only keeper league, Johnson or Palat?

 

I like Palat in real life. His game is fast and physical but Johnson, while diminutive is a real pit bull all the same. I tend to favour smaller guys when it comes to straight points because if they aren't scoring then they probably aren't providing much value so I'd lean Johnson.

 

To complicate matters in the short term, Johnson, as mentioned is skating with Stamkos now but Palat has jumped onto the top power play unit. All things considered I'd side with the guy getting top PP minutes.

 

Ryan Callahan was up on the top PP unit as well. He scored his first goal with the Lightning and has points in three straight. Could be worth gambling that this is where he goes off.

 

By the way, Alex Killorn and Purcell were the ones knocked off the top PP unit. They barely got a chance to get comfortable!

 

Oh yeah, and Radko Gudas made up for lost time landing 10 hits last night. Bet you missed him.

 

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Dmitri Kulikov has seen a spike in power play time recently and he has taken full advantage notching three PPP in the last four games. He's also been minus-six over that span but you know what you are getting into with a Panthers player.

 

I like the idea of Kulikov getting more PP minutes though. Obviously Brian Campbell is the top dog and the Panthers would be stupid to move him off the top unit but with nothing to play for these last few games they can afford to experiment.

 

Campbell is a massive buy-low for keeper leagues though. He's at under half a point per game, which is absurd. If you believe in the Panthers' future at all then you have to believe their offense takes a step forward next season and Campbell becomes relevant again.

 

Brandon Pirri has goals in back-to-back games and seems to be taking advantage of some extra minutes thanks to the Aleksander Barkov injury.

 

Nick Bjugstad, meanwhile, has five points in his last four games, flashing some of that big upside.

 

Scottie Upshall managed a goal to remain one point up on Bjugstad for the most depressing team-lead in scoring.

 

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The Blues thumped the Oilers 6-2 last night. Not really surprising. How it happened was deflating though. It was a tight one tied 2-2 after 40 minutes then the Blues blew the doors off.

 

Ben Scrivens was on the hook for all six goals. Advantage Viktor Fasth. I still lean Scrivens long term and am a huge fan boy but mostly I just like that this is a tandem I can get behind and most nights not get pummelled. Last night was not a good night for us Scrivens backers.

 

David Perron received quite the warm welcome back to St. Louis getting into multiple scrums with former teammates and finishing with six PIM. He did score goal too but that won't take much sting out of this pummelling.

 

The Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle, Nail Yakupov line got smoked going a combined minus-11. It looks like the well might be completely dry for Nugent-Hopkins. He has just two points in his last 11 games. So glad I dealt him for Phil Kessel.

 

With Nuge struggling it's Sam Gagner picking up his pace skating with Taylor Hall and Perron. His five-game scoring streak came to a close last night but he still makes a good bet skating with those two.

 

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Welcome back to the lineup Vladimir Sobotka! He had a massive rotisserie game jumping onto a line with Vladimir Tarasenko and TJ Oshie. Sobotka on that line reminds me of Lars Eller skating with Alex Galchenyuk and Brendan Gallagher. Could be very productive down the stretch.

 

Sobotka finished the night with one goal, two assists, plus-three, 12 PIM, two shots and one hit. Just a beauty.

 

Tarasenko, by the way, scored his 20th goal of the season. He has 23 points in his last 26 games. I smell 60+ points next season.

 

Oshie continues to be productive despite coming off the top line. After a three-point night he's just one shy of his career high of 54 points. Fair to say he shatters that. He's a bit of a regression candidate though shooting 14.8% on the season. Something to keep in mind going into next season.

 

Jaden Schwartz broke the 20-goal mark as well last night and notched his 50th point as well. Bet he gets to 60. I am loving the Blues' offensive eruption this season.

 

On a down note, the Blues may have lost Patrik Berglund late in this one.

 

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You always wonder if a team regrets sticking the backup out there when he drops one in the middle of a playoff race like Cam Talbot did last night. Still, there's not much more he could have done allowing just two goals. Talbot has been pretty reliable this season too so I don't anyone is pointing fingers his way.

 

No, this is on the offense. To wit, wtf Martin St. Louis?

 

He's got just one point in five games with the Rangers. I did not see this coming at all. How could I have so grossly underestimated how futile the Rangers' offense could be? They've somehow sucked the life out of the most consistent scorer of the past five years.

 

I'm still in St. Louis' corner though. He is firing the puck a ton – 18 SOG in five games – which tells me the offense will come. He will be relevant down the stretch.

 

Who is coming with him though?

 

You've got to figure Ryan McDonagh is going to be productive. He's just about the only guy consistently producing for the Rangers. Can you imagine McDonagh on a team that could score? Oh buddy!

 

Derek Stepan scored the lone Rangers goal and is sizzling right now with 10 points in the last eight games. It's about time!

 

Rick Nash got an assist on that goal but it's feeling like too little too late.

 

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Let's credit Darcy Kuemper and the Wild for slowing the Rangers last night. Kuemper has been a revelation coming up in relief of Josh Harding and Niklas Backstrom.

 

The Zach Parise, Mikael Granlund, Jason Pominville line struck again last night. In seven games since the break that trio has seven, seven and six points respectively. Look for those three to be huge down the stretch.

 

Mikko Koivu is having less luck skating with Matt Moulson and Charlie Coyle since returning from injury but it may just take time for that group to gel.

 

Moulson's arrival has spelled the end of Dany Heatley's corpse roaming the ice for 15+ minutes a night. Still, it regularly gets out on the top power play unit for unknown reasons. One point in the last six games for the zombie.

 

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Great bounce back by the Leafs and James Reimer last night. All in all, stealing four of six points on a California road trip has to be considered a success.

 

Unfortunately, it was actually Jonathan Bernier who started this one in his homecoming. He allowed two early goals before leaving with a lower-body injury. No word on when he returns.

 

The good news is that Reimer came in and shut the door the rest of the way stopping all 31 shots he faced. He even recovered splendidly after getting kicked in the head on a Hasek-esque diving poke-check. All appears to be well with him.

 

Nazem Kadri led the way with two assists. He has just four points in eight games since the Olympic break and I wouldn't take the two-point effort as a sure sign of things turning around but it's a start.

 

The Leafs' top line has gone a bit silent these past couple of games with Kessel going scoreless in two straight. James van Riemsdyk has a three-game point streak but that's thanks to back-to-back games with shorthanded assists.

 

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Marian Gaborik finally got the lid off last night scoring his first goal as a King. It was an ugly one with a rebound bouncing off his skate and in but they all count the same (unless you kick it!) Most importantly he was doing the right thing and driving the net. This should get the floodgates open, especially as he also notched an assist.

 

Drew Doughty got the primary assist on both Kings goals and looked to be his excellent self last night.

 

I had some concern that Dustin Brown may have gotten injured as he was absent from the bench late in the third but it seems as though Darryl Sutter just decided he'd seen enough.

 

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Eric Tulsky's study on how scoring rates change with age is a MUST READ:


In addition, we now have an estimate of how even strength scoring ability changes through a player’s 30’s. On average, players retain about 90% of their scoring through age 29, but the drop from there is pretty sharp — they hit 80% at age 31, 70% at age 32-33, and 60% at age 35.

 

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It looks like Kari Lehtonen is close to returning but Cody Eakin is doubtful for Friday.

 

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Craig Smith became just the eighth Predator draft pick to score 20 and 20 in a single season. Some lofty standards there, I'll tell ya.

 

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Sean McIndoe takes a look at the Playoff Bubble Teams.

 

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You can follow me on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw.

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