Looking back at June 2009 rankings and the tease that is Ales Hemsky

A friend of mine always gives me a hard time when I say "I like that player, he has a good shot, or a smooth stride, or strong puck handling." His contention is that I am not an NHL scout and shouldn't be trying to correlate physical skills I witness visually with fantasy production.

On the one hand he's right, I'm not a scout. Outside of watching NHL games on the couch in my pajamas (and saving up for one Leaf game every four years) I'm not a professional evaluator of talent. However, there are some cases where you can legitimately discern certain skillsets. We all know Grabner is extremely fast, or Eberle has great hands, and can assume that the presence of these skills will translate to some level of fantasy production.

Where it becomes difficult to scout players yourself is when you come across one that appears better than the numbers would indicate.

Enter Ales Hemsky.

There have been multiple times over the last 10 years that I've legitimately considered Hemsky to be one of the most talented player in the NHL. You can click here for a montage of his better goals, the guy has hands that even a Mr.Clean magic eraser couldn't take care of.

Nowadays Hemsky has become a bit of wild card, settling into the late rounds of most drafts where one manager will often take a chance in hopes he regains some of his 71 or 77 point form from earlier in the decade. When I looked back into the rankings I was surprised with how highly regarded Hemsky was even just five years ago. Back in June of 2009 Dobber had him as the 27^th most valuable forward. Ahead of guys like Phil Kessel, Alex Semin, Johnathan Toews, and Corey Perry. You can see the full rankings below:

Over the past couple of seasons I know that most poolies have essentially given up on Hemsky as an asset. The Oilers were moving in a different direction, building around Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle, while Hemsky's stats began to fade.

In 2011-12 he finished with only 36 points in 69 games, carrying a minus 13 rating on a poor Edmonton team. He followed that up with barely 0.5 points per contest in the lockout shortened season, ending with 20 in 38 games.

I was included in that group that had all but given up on him. I'd sometimes stare at his name on the waiver wire and think mayyyyybbbeeee, one more time. But no, the reward was no longer justifying the risk associated with a low shot and low penalty minute winger.

Saying all of that, a funny thing has happened over the last couple months for Ales Hemsky. During the Olympics he was able to showcase the breadth of his talents during for the Czech Republic, repeatedly circling the entire offence zone and driving the Czech's offence on multiple occasions.

The trade that followed from Edmonton to Ottawa has had an even more positive effect on his value. Since the move he's played 8 games (a good portion of which alongside some guy named Spezza) and has 2 goals and 6 assists. Most impressively he's fired 22 shots on net, a 225 shot pace. It's not a massive amount for star players, but it's above replacement level, which is huge for Hemsky.

Now there are of course a few factors at play here. Not the least of which is that he is 30 years old and approaching free agency this summer. This is more than likely Hemsky's last chance to land a significant contract as it relates to both dollars and term, which could be spurring on his inclination to shoot. Moreover, we're dealing with a sample size of 8 games – in other words we're looking at next to no sample size.

It's unlikely (if near impossible) that Hemsky will ever approach the heights of a top 30 ranking again. But is it inconceivable he re-signs in Ottawa and breaks 60 points and 200 shots next season? I know that the Olympics and this short stint with the Senators will have me looking at him in a slightly new light as the draft's late rounds wind down next fall. 

Darren is a contributor for DobberHockey and founder of Darren's Fantasy Hockey. You can follow him on twitter here.