March 26, 2014

Dobber Sports

2014-03-26

I led off Monday’s ramblings with a bit of a rant on the Leafs and I hate beating a dead horse. Last night proved what we already know – that the Leafs aren’t half the team St. Louis is. They hang the goalies out to dry and it’s like watching a junior team try to get the puck out of the zone against an NHL team. Embarrassing, if you’re a Leaf or a Leafs fan. The team needed to win six out of 14 games to get in. Piece of cake, right? Yep – and so is holding onto a 4-1 lead with half a period to go in a Game 7. But here we are.

Bernier stopped 44 of 48. Yes, 48.

Against his former team, Alex Steen broke out of his slump (nine points in 19 games) for a three-point, plus-4 night. In fact, that entire line had Maple Leafs for breakfast. Oshie and Backes had three each as well. Backes also had seven shots, four hits and two blocked shots

Hitchcock even let Paajarvi have some ice time. You know your team is not a threat when Paajarvi gets 14 minutes against you. The third most ice time he’s had all season.

Here were the St. Louis line combos. No big surprise and that’s a key to success – have successful line combos and stick with them:

 

18.92%

EV

42 BACKES,DAVID – 74 OSHIE,T.J. – 20 STEEN,ALEXANDER

17.91%

EV

10 MORROW,BRENDEN – 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN – 17 SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR

15.54%

EV

21 BERGLUND,PATRIK – 29 OTT,STEVE – 56 PAAJARVI,MAGNUS

10.81%

EV

40 LAPIERRE,MAXIM – 32 PORTER,CHRIS – 75 REAVES,RYAN

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Prospect Chris Brown picked up a point in the Washington loss. Points in two straight now. Not a wise investment for this year and the points will probably be several years in coming, but I do think that he will stick with the Caps in the fall. Here’s Brown’s fantasy outlook.

Marian Gaborik has managed to find a way to produce less in LA than he did Columbus. Injuries have done him in. I’ve seen enough. In his last 79 games (NYR, CBJ, LA), he has 46 points.

Alex Ovechkin, who had two points in nine games heading into this one, broke out with three last night. It was also his fourth straight game at even plus/minus after nine straight in the negative. So he looks to be turning things back around.

Not a bad way to get your first career NHL goal. Short-handed, less than a minute left, game-tying goal when the team is fighting for their playoff lives. Evgeny Kuznetsov:

 

 

Alec Martinez continues his torrid pace with another assist – gives him 10 points in 12 games now. I don’t believe it for a second when it comes to next year’s outlook for him (see Muzzin, Jake), but he’s absolutely worth a pickup for this year.

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The Islanders win again. Just 14 more wins and they can squeak into the playoffs. Good ol’ Islanders. Don’t you hate it when teams win when they need to lose?

Travis Hamonic has five points in his last six games and he’s a plus-5 in that span. We’re still waiting on that 40 points, 100 PIM potential. But his ice time has really rocketed upwards again – similar to early in the season but now it seems like he’s more ready to handle it. He’s 15th in the league in average ice time per game, but like I said – the last dozen games or so he’d probably be Top 5. Maybe Andrew MacDonald out of the picture is a good thing for him. One thing about Hamonic is that he’ll be cruising along on pace for about 40 or 50 PIM and then he’ll suddenly have a game like he did March 1 (32 PIM). He had a bunch of games like that in 2010-11 and 2011-12.

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The main story of that game – Cam Ward. Yikes. Chased after six minutes and three goals. And then poor Anton Khudobin, who actually played an average game, gets saddled with the loss.

Time to evaluate Nate Gerbe, an absolute stud prospect six years ago but who quickly fell out of favor. As we’ve seen time and again, these 5-8 (or less, Gerbe is 5-5) players take years to get going. In every case (unless we’re talking a first-round pick), the players are 26 or 27 before they take off (Sullivan, St. Louis). Gerbe is now 26. But his injury history has stunted his development so I’d be shocked if he ever did that 70-point thing. From 2009 to 2012 he missed at least 18 games per season due to injury. So with all that in mind, looking at his numbers now I’m pretty happy. Mainly because he’s going to play close to 80 games. That in itself is a massive breakthrough. He also looks good for 35 points, which is unimpressive. But he’s shown that he can stay healthy and he’s getting a fair amount of ice time, which is an indicator of the coach’s trust. If he can get on a scoring line next year he’ll hang onto it. And again if he can stay healthy – he’s a dark horse for a surprise season.

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Though Matt Hackett took the loss last night, he’s played dynamite in his two starts – 68 saves on 71 shots. Both Enroth and Neuvirth are looking as though they won’t be playing this weekend and probably not next week either.

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Mark Stone played 18:32 last night, though the game included overtime. He has two points in two games since his call up and seems to be getting Kyle Turris (two points) going again too. Here were Ottawa’s line combos:

 

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25.28%

EV

83 HEMSKY,ALES – 9 MICHALEK,MILAN – 19 SPEZZA,JASON

21.56%

EV

16 MACARTHUR,CLARKE – 61 STONE,MARK – 7 TURRIS,KYLE

16.36%

EV

14 GREENING,COLIN – 25 NEIL,CHRISTOPHER – 15 SMITH,ZACK

8.18%

EV

22 CONDRA,ERIK – 68 HOFFMAN,MIKE – 28 KASSIAN,MATT

 

Ales Hemsky has one point in his last six games.

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I gotta watch a Florida game. I keep seeing Vincent Trocheck playing 20 minutes or more (21:42 last night) and that’s just insane for a rookie forward just called up, regardless of overtime minutes. Is he really this good? Points in his last two, has four points in 11 games in all. Not dazzling numbers, so why the ice time? Anyone see?

Here’s Trocheck’s fantasy profile. Check out the Elliotte Friedman bit in the November observations.

And here is Trocheck last night, his first career NHL shootout attempt. Beauty!

 

 

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Gustav Nyquist – nine goals in six games now. I said in my fantasy guide that he would get 12 goals and 29 points this year, because he was cut. So that was an updated projection. My original projection from August 1 had him at over 40 points. Sometimes I wonder if, by updating the guide and changing the projections throughout training camp, the micro-managing makes it worse!

My THN article yesterday was on Mr. Nyquist – here.

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Sergei Bobrovsky left last night’s game with an “illness”. Doesn’t seem like he’ll be out long.

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Evgeni Malkin is out for the season though – a foot injury, two-three weeks. So he may play the final game or two, but it will be close.

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Calle Jarnkrok has points in each of the three NHL games he’s played in his career. He’s also a plus-4. Pretty impressive so far…

Chris Kreider is out a month with a hand injury.

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Brandon Bollig vs. Antoine Roussel:

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UPCOMING GAMES

Mar 29 - 19:03 BUF vs N.J

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JURAJ SLAFKOVSKY MTL
AUSTON MATTHEWS TOR
NATHAN MACKINNON COL
JACK QUINN BUF
FILIP FORSBERG NSH

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  Players Team
IGOR SHESTERKIN NYR
IVAN FEDOTOV PHI
FREDERIK ANDERSEN CAR
LOGAN THOMPSON VGK
ALEKSEI KOLOSOV PHI

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency PHI Players
12.2 OLLE LYCKSELL SEAN COUTURIER CAM ATKINSON
9.1 RYAN POEHLING GARNET HATHAWAY TYSON FOERSTER
9.0 OWEN TIPPETT TRAVIS KONECNY MORGAN FROST

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