The NHL’s stretch run is winding down and we’re beginning to have a better idea of which teams will still be alive for the first round.

 

We know now, for example, that the Toronto Maple Leafs almost certainly won’t make it, and that the Detroit Red Wings very probably will. That particular hockey night in Canada game, which the Red Wings won 4-2 on the strength of a dominant second period, was about as “high-leverage” as it gets. With the regulation victory, Detroit improved their playoff hopes by 18.4%. Toronto’s hopes fell off a cliff meanwhile, to the tune of 13.3% with the loss per sportsclubstats.com.

 

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Darren Helm managed a hat-trick for the Red Wings in the game, the first of his career, while Gustav ‘Goose’ Nyquist potted another goal (obviously). Nyquist was waiver wire fodder in my league early on in the season and was recycled a couple of times by several different owners (myself included). But he’s gone off over the past six weeks, and over the past two weeks in particular – this week he managed another three goals, and an assist while contributing a +2 rating and nine shots on goal.

 

Ultimately there’s an argument to be made that Nyquist might be the single most valuable player of the fantasy playoff so far…

 

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The sheer number of times I’ve ranted about the Leafs in this space – their woeful puck possession game their unsustainable reliance on favorable percentages – should probably give you a good idea of what I think about their recent collapse.

 

Admittedly, I didn’t see a late run of poor play this bad coming down the pipeline but I’ve known all season that this team wasn’t particularly good and had overcome their overall lack of quality for much of the year thanks to smoke and mirrors and some tremendous performances from top-line forwards like Phil Kessel and James van Riemsdyk, and Vezina quality goaltending from Jonathan Bernier.

 

Ultimately their shell game has bit them in the posterior down the stretch, and it didn’t help that Jonathan Bernier isn’t himself following a groin injury (and I might suggest to you that James Reimer isn’t himself since he got kicked in the head by a Kings forward in the same game in which Bernier was injured). When you need elite goaltending to be just “bad” defensively (as opposed to historically bad), your goose is pretty cooked.

 

There are teams that can overcome a tough run of goaltending luck by controlling games – see Chicago or St. Louis – but the Leafs aren’t one of them. Not even close. Without the play of their top-line and netminder, they’d have been in the running for a top-five pick. Now that their goaltending has fallen off, they look like a bottom feeding team…

Basically the Leafs have been exposed the past couple of weeks…

 

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While Leafs fans are pretty depressed about the state of their team at this point, at least Morgan Rielly is the real deal. What a play by the young defender to set up Joffrey Lupul in a losing effort last night, my god.

 

Also good news for the Maple Leafs: star forward Kessel went and got x-rays postgame, but seems to be okay. 

 

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The Boston Bruins manhandled the Washington Capitals 4-2 in matinee action on Saturday, with Jarome Iginla adding another two goals to push him to 30 on the year. Pretty amazing totals for a player as wizened as the former long-time Calgary Flames captain.

 

Iginla landed in an excellent situation in Boston, and has taken full advantage of it. He’s not the play driving force he was earlier in his career, but he’s still a big, skilled forward. In Boston he doesn’t have to carry play though, he just has to be a useful component on a productive secondary scoring line. It’s something he’s more than capable of, as he’s shown.

 

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Patrice Bergeron added a goal and an assist and had one hell of a fantasy week in the semifinal of most H2H leagues. For the week Bergeron managed four goals, an assist, a +1 rating, three power-play points, 12 shots on goal and a couple of hits. That’s alright, alright, alright.

 

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Young Capitals super prospect Evgeny Kuznetsov added another goal in a losing effort on Saturday, bringing his totals to seven points in nine games on the season. Kuznetsov’s been put in prime position to succeed and he’s been pretty impressive. Certainly he’s shown flashes of the super skilled player he is. I would metnion, however, that “Kuzya’s” shot rate doesn’t jump off the page and the Capitals have been outscored, and outshot by a wide margin with the young Russian forward on the ice so far. That’s to be expected from a young player, however.

 

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The Colorado Avalanche – also known as Toronto Maple Leafs west – have continued to outperform their true talent in the Western Conference. Why? Semyon Varlamov’s form has continued to hold, and also Colorado has more elite offensive talent up front than the Leafs do. I watched the Avs play two games in their entirety this past week – against Vancouver, and San Jose – and when you see the turnovers forechecking forwards can force against Avalanche defenders on a regular basis, you really wonder how they’re a playoff team.

 

Then you see Gabriel Landeskog – who looks a step faster this season, a scary thought – or Matt Duchene, or Nathan MacKinnon blow the zone and skate threateningly through the neutral zone with the puck – and it all makes sense.

 

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Anyway the Avalanche dusted off the Sharks on Saturday with a 3-2 win but the big news is that Jamie McGinn colided with Duchene, injuring the Avalanche and Team Canada star. The talented Avalanche forward will have an MRI on Sunday and head coach Patrick Roy sounds confident that he should be back in the lineup for the postseason. Still, a tough loss for a Colorado team that is likely in for an epic first round humbling at the hands of the Chicago Blackhawks.

 

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Ryan O’Reilly took his first penalty of the season on Saturday, which is really one of the more remarkable statistics this season.

 

O’Reilly hasn’t always played center for Colorado this year, but he’s always battled tough competition and is second among all Avalanche forwards in ice-time. There’s real value to having a player who can soak up tough minutes without taking penalties (consider that every penalty taken is basically worth 0.2 of a goal against), and O’Reilly’s lack of time logged in the penalty box this season is another reason the Avalanche have been able to outperform the whole “not really employing more than two average NHL defenseman” thing.

 

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Though the Sharks lost, forward Joe Pavelski scored his 38th goal of the season on the power-play. Pavelski has had a monster year, and had an unreal fantasy week over the past six days notching four goals, two assists and most importantly five(!) power-play points.

 

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Steven Stamkos scored a hat-trick on Saturday night as the Tampa Bay Lightning outlasted the Buffalo Sabres in a 4-3 overtime victory. Stamkos managed a goal that tied the game up at two-all in the first period, then scored again to give the Buffalo Sabres the lead early in the first period (the scorekeepers credited Cory Conacher with the empty net goal), before finally giving the Lightning the win in overtime. What a player.

 

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Zemgus Girgensons is right at the top of my list of players who are going to explode next season, and he was solid again on Saturday. Girgensons didn’t have a point but he managed five shots against Tampa, and his two-way game remains street ahead of what you’d expect from a forward who only turned 20-year-old, like, nine weeks ago. He’s been enormously impressive all year…

 

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The red hot Montreal Canadiens lit up the Florida Panthers and Dan Ellis – Roberto Luongo didn’t play after being run by Radek Dvorak earlier in the week – in a 4-1 victory on Saturday. The Canadiens won their fifth straight and have been controlling games lately in a way that just seemed beyond their capabilities earlier in the season. 

 

Here’s their rolling unblocked shot differential in score close situations graph per extraskater.com:

 

Think they’re trending in the right direction?

 

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Max Pacioretty had a three point game in the blowout Canadiens victory, managing two goals, an assist, a +3 rating and five shots on goal. What a lanky beast…

 

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The New Jersey Devils lost another shootout (to the Islanders on Saturday) and neither of their shooters managed a goal. The Devils’ remarkable shootout struggles are pretty funny at this point, and (in addition to pretending Marty Brodeur is still an NHL quality goaltender) very probably cost the team a shot at the playoffs. Oh if only Ilya Kovalchuk had stayed…

 

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Seriously though, the Devils have to be making UFAs like Jussi Jokinen and Mike Santorelli a pitch this summer – if only for their work in the skills competition, right?

 

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Former #4 overall pick Adam Larsson is plying his trade in the AHL of late, and has 19 points in 33 games at that level. His skating and defensive play haven’t come along as hoped in the NHL, but that AHL production, his pedigree, his size, and his age (he won’t turn 22 until November) make him a player still worth dreaming on.

 

Seems unlikely he’ll ever get a shot under Pete DeBoer, and I wonder if some team will try to pry him out of the Devils system this summer.

 

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I think the Blue Jackets are a playoff team, but boy they haven’t been able to buy a win when they really needed it over the past week. Finally they managed one on Saturday, defeating the Carolina Hurricanes 3-2 in overtime. 

That victory gives the Blue Jackets an 80% shot of making the postseason in Jarmo Kekalainen’s first full year as general manager of the club. Remember: the Blue Jackets hold the ROW hammer in the Eastern Conference, so they’ll beat any of the Capitals, Red Wings or Maple Leafs (but like, they don’t even need to be mentioned here anymore) should they finish the season tied with any of those clubs…

 

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James Wisniewski deserves some love for the season he’s had. Granted, he’s not facing top-competition (Jack Johnson and Fedor Tyutin are), but Wisniewski has given the Blue Jackets full value on a top-four pairing playing often with young Ryan Murray. With Wisniewski on the ice at five-on-five the Blue Jackets have outscored their opponents by 10 goals this season and he leads all Columbus regulars in relative shot attempt differential. Pitching in 44 points and 24 power-play points isn’t too shabby either.

 

This week Wisniewski has gone off in Fantasy Hockey by the way. The offensive defender managed five assists this week, including four power-play points…

 

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And how about Ryan Johansen, who notched his 30th goal of the season on Saturday night. Johansen didn’t improve this year, he took a quantum leap forward. It’s too bad that the NHL doesn’t have a most improved player award (like the NBA does), because Johansen would be a shoe-in.

 

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Dallas’ surprise victory over the Blues, in combination with the Phoenix Coyotes falling short against the Wild in regulation, serves to put the Stars in the drivers seat for the final Western Conference playoff berth in a big way.

 

The Stars are significantly better than the Coyotes talent wise and quality wise, but I wouldn’t be betting against the Coyotes were it not for Mike Ribiero’s struggles and the injury to Mike Smith. You just never want to bet against Dave Tippett.

 

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Finally the Vancouver Canucks lost (and lost big) to the Anaheim Ducks, while the Winnipeg Jets fell to the Los Angeles Kings. Now those two Canadian fanbases can stop pretending their teams had a shot at the playoffs and retire the believe hashtag they’ve been using when tweeting about their teams of late. Good riddance.

 

Thomas Drance is a news editor at theScore.