March 31, 2014

Dobber Sports

2014-03-31

Some late notes, meant to get this out earlier in the afternoon – Jason Spezza is out day-to-day, he’ll miss tonight’s game and J-G Pageau has been called up and will play. With Spezza out, I like Pageau’s odds of doing well. I’m guessing he sees time with Hemsky.

Also, Evgeni Malkin is out 2-3 weeks with a foot injury. He may miss the first game or two of the playoffs

And Matt Duchene’s knee injury is serious – out four weeks (i.e. first round)

 

***

I apologize in advance for what will be my third consecutive ramblings kicking off with the Leafs. My two favorite teams are the Leafs and the Pens, so those tend to be the two teams I try not to discuss in the ramblings. And with the Penguins having had so many fantasy relevant players the past few years, it’s been hard to avoid them. The Leafs, however, have been easy to avoid prior to this year.

But not now. Eight games in a row, when their backs were against the wall.

The coach is done. Carlyle is gone, probably within minutes of the final whistle of the regular season. A poorly-coached team. Many criticize the fourth line and the defensemen. Frankly, I think the fourth line was fine as long as Orr or McLaren weren’t on it. And if those two are in the press box, the fourth line should see 10 minutes a game. That would have given the top lines more jump. Domino effect would have surprised. And the defensemen don’t suck – the defensive system sucked. And finally, if I’m a coach and my penalty killing was 27th in the league at the midpoint of the season, then I never put those four penalty killers on the ice to kill penalties again. I don’t care if one is a top faceoff guy and one is your top defensive defenseman. If it’s not working, then you overhaul it. The worst that could happen is you slip from 27th to 28th. Big deal. The best that could happen is that you find hidden talents from someone you thought was strictly offense.

Free agents won’t really solve the problem. Yes, the Leafs could get bigger up the middle and yes they need a top stay-at-home defenseman. But I think they can’t solve the former problem (with a Paul Stastny) unless they trade Kadri. But landing a big, skilled center in a trade would require a Gardiner move, which is pretty drastic. For defensemen, I would go after Brooks Orpik. The only other free agent I would sign is Brian Boyle – size, and 53% at the dot. So in is Orpik, Boyle. Out is Raymond, Kulemin, Ranger, Bolland, McClement. I think we see Holland up for the full season next year.

And finally, James Reimer has to go. Not because I don’t like him. I do like him. But once again, idiot Leaf fans chase another good one out of town. Not the real Leaf fans, the idiot ones. It’s for the best now – he goes (for what would be a middle draft pick I’m sure), and a backup with talent but zero chance at controversy, comes in. And that’s it for my Leafs musings today.

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Carl Soderberg has 22 points in his last 25 games, despite being held off the score sheet Sunday.

Dougie Hamilton has quietly started showing some of that offensive potential. Perhaps he takes that next big step a year from now. In which case, Torey Krug would be a ‘sell high’. Hamilton has six points in his last six games and 12 points in his last 17 (and plus-10). Meanwhile Krug has three points in 14 games and is getting scratched.

So what do you do about Krug in your playoff pool at the office (buy my draft list here)? On one hand, he was a stud in last year’s playoffs. On another hand, he’s getting scratched and it would seem that his job has been usurped. You know you want to load up on Boston guys…what about Krug? Up or down?

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Semyon Varlamov has won three in a row but stopping 47 of 49 Saturday to clinch was icing on the Vezina cake. To me it’s down to him, Bishop and Rask. Varly’s win Saturday clinched playoffs for the Avs…if there was any doubt at this point.

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Andrei Loktionov has points in three straight and his ice time was up to 19:50 Saturday. He has six points in 12 games with Carolina, but all six have come in the last six. Definitely worth the add for the final two weeks.

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Every once in awhile I get an email from someone complaining that occasionally we don’t cover all of the night’s games in the ramblings. And so I get inspired to once again remind our readers that we’re not looking to cover each game – you can get game recaps over at TSN. We’re here to ramble. To muse about the fantasy hockey world. Usually that involves discussing the night’s action, but sometimes it does not. We’ll go over all the box scores and recaps, sift through Twitter and the blogs to pluck any other helpful information for our fantasy squads – and then we’ll share it here. Sometimes we type 1200 words and run out of steam on a 10-game night. Sometimes it will be 2000 words on a two-game night. If we can get at least one helpful point to you every day that you can’t find anywhere else and it gives you the jump on your competitors, then we’ve done what we came to do (and ideally we give you 10 helpful points…or 50…).

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David Desharnais watch. He has 48 points in his last 54 games. I remember being offered Gerbe for him 20 games in. And actually being tempted. Yikes! Bottom line – if Pacioretty were to be knocked out for the season in the 10th game next year, Desharnais would get 25 points. If Pacioretty somehow plays 80 games, Desharnais is getting 70 points. Ridiculous.

Is he doing better because Vanek is around? Was Vanek around 54 games ago? No. This is all Pacioretty. In fact, I think Vanek is benefitting on a hot line. Yes, he’s the best player on that line, but the chemistry Pac and DD have you just don’t see very often. Via Frozen Pool (last 10 games):

Desharnais has 12 points – 10 points with Vanek on the ice, two points without.

Vanek has 11 points – 11 points with Desharnais and Max-Pac both on the ice, zero points without. Small sample size, but just sayin’.

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Interesting stat tweeted to me last night by @paulfilippelli – In the 54 games Clarkson played, Kadri has 22 points. In the 19 games without Clarkson in the lineup, Kadri has 26 points. Think about that. Let that sink in. Insane.

He also gave me another cool tidbit – Just three goalies are in the Top 10 in wins, SV%, GAA and SO. Bishop, Rask and… Halak?

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Toews is listed as day-to-day after taking this hit from Orpik. Then again, Crosby was day-to-day with his concussion way back when. I’m sure the Blackhawks aren’t going to say “Toews is badly concussed and you probably won’t see him until the middle of next season”. It also looks like Toews hurt his shoulder. One injury or the other will keep him out until the playoffs, or I’ll be pretty shocked. Anyway, here’s the clip. Is a suspension forthcoming?

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Beau Bennett has a point in each of the games since his return. It’s the production I expect from him – but he has to kick these injuries. If he keeps getting hurt as often as he does, he’ll be lucky to have a 35-point season let alone a 75-point season.

Two goals last night give Sidney Crosby a cool 99 points. After four years, a return to his 100-point ways is more than welcome.

Still looking for his first NHL point, but Teuvo Teravainen saw nearly 17 minutes of ice time Sunday thanks to the aforementioned Toews injury. He could be one to watch down the stretch as a fill-in for Toews.

Brent Seabrook was in the hunt to be the league’s top plus/minus guy, but his minus-6 in the last five games have knocked him out of the running. He’s at plus-25 now.

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Nutty Fact 1 – Colorado is ahead of Chicago in the standings. With two games in hand.

Nutty Fact 2 – Washington went to overtime for the 26th time last night. RIDICULOUS.

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With three points last night, including his first career shorthanded goal (and how nice of a bonus was that for some head-to-head owners?), Mats Zuccarello is within range of 60 points. He needs seven points in six games.

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The line on Cam Talbot – 12-6-0, 1.67, 0.940. And three shutouts, with the one last night. Quite the year, and such a shame that his odds of getting a starting job somewhere are slim. So many young backups already available to fill the few upcoming vacancies. So guys like Talbot and Chad Johnson are stuck being just really great backups.

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Sam Gagner has one point and is minus-8 in the last five games. He can’t be an Oiler come October…can he?

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Darren Helm has quietly put together a three-game points streak. Actually, his three goals against the Leafs…not so quiet.

I try not to talk about this guy every single ramblings, but then he goes and does something ridiculous like this:

 

 

Let me know when you’re ready to believe he’s the real deal.

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With three more points last night, Kyle Turris has seven in his last four and is plus-7 in that span. It’s been a season of streaks for Turris. Red hot or ice cold. His pace is now 61 points. Ottawa line combos last night:

 

20.42%

EV

16 MACARTHUR,CLARKE – 61 STONE,MARK – 7 TURRIS,KYLE

20.07%

EV

83 HEMSKY,ALES – 9 MICHALEK,MILAN – 19 SPEZZA,JASON

13.49%

EV

22 CONDRA,ERIK – 68 HOFFMAN,MIKE – 93 ZIBANEJAD,MIKA

7.27%

EV

25 NEIL,CHRISTOPHER – 15 SMITH,ZACK – 93 ZIBANEJAD,MIKA

 

The Hemsky-Spezza line is starting to work again – just in time to give me some breathing room in the one keeper league that I’m leading. I still can’t believe someone dropped Hemsky in early February in that league. I instantly snagged him and stashed him on the bench, knowing that a trade was coming. He has 11 points in 12 games for his new team.

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Vincent Lecavalier‘s first goal Sunday gave him 400 on the career. The game winner was 401.

Jakub Voracek has 16 points in his last 13 games.

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If I own Steven Stamkos, I approach the John Tavares owner and try to acquire him straight up. If that doesn’t do it, I would add a bit more.

If I own John Tavares and someone offers Steven Stamkos, I require a first round pick on top of that. Bottom line – I’d trade Stamkos for Tavares in a heartbeat, and I would not trade Tavares for Stamkos.

Apparently, that’s not a popular stance, as fantasy hockey enthusiasts tend to need to see the proof in the stats. But I’ve always felt this way and never kept a secret. Anyway, you can join the hoards of people arguing with me right here.

Geez, if it’s not Malkin, it’s Tavares…Am I terrible to rank Stamkos fifth in value among forwards? I’ve always said he doesn’t quite belong in the Big 3. Tavares, however…now there’s a guy I could see making it a Big 4. I love Stamkos and hate being made to belittle his great accomplishments, but I get into these discussions and I’m made to come across as a Stamkos hater and that’s not the case at all. Opposite. Love him. He’s not better than Tavares or Malkin (or Crosby or Ovechkin). But I love him.

As I said in the discussion – I feel very strongly about it and you can’t change my mind. Just like the naysayers couldn’t convince me that Stamkos was better than Malkin, or that Duchene was better than Tavares (both of which I ended up being right on, I’d say), the naysayers can’t convince me that Stamkos is better than J.T. in fantasy hockey going forward.

I have a right to my opinion and you have a right to yours. You can follow my advice and sink or swim with me, or you can do your own thing. I’m just being honest.

 *

Speaking of Duchene, there will be an update on his knee injury later today

 

 

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