Geek of the Week – Dustin Brown

Terry Campkin

2014-04-06

Dustin Brown bust

 

Geek of the Week names Kings captain Dustin Brown the Fantasy Bust of the Year.

 

Last week I wrote about how Sidney Crosby is my 2013-2014 Fantasy Hockey MVP and it was pretty easy to figure out who the MVP was, especially with the amazing season Sid is putting up. This week I am going to tackle a slightly tougher angle with my 2013-14 Fantasy Bust of the Year: Dustin Brown.

 

Deciding who would be my "Bust of the Year" was a little less straight forward than the MVP because my MVP was simply the highest ranked player, whereas I don't' think that identifying a bust of the year is as simple as picking the lowest rank player. My definition of a "bust" is the player who most drastically underachieved their preseason expectations. Here is how I landed on Dustin Brown:

 

(All analysis were conducted for a 12 team Yahoo! league measuring G, A, +\-, PPP, SOG, Hits).

 

First I ran a Fantasy Hockey Geek report based on Dobber's player predictions that were made in the preseason. The output of this would provide me with an objective idea of what our expectations were for all players going into the season. I only included the top 100 players because let's face it: if a player was projected to be outside of the top 100, how big of a bust could he have been?

 

Now that I had the preseason expectations documented, I ran a second Fantasy Hockey Geek report to see where everyone's values were actually coming in for this season. I removed any player who had played less than 65 games because I don't think that getting injured qualifies a player as a bust. I then did a simple calculation of the player's actual rank vs. their projected rank and I was left with the list of players that have been killing fantasy mangers the most this season. Here are the top three:

 

Player Projected Rank Actual Rank Difference
Dustin Brown 19 143 -124
Mike Green 23 139 -116
Eric Staal 12 126 -114

 

You can see that based on the preseason projections, Dustin Brown would have been the 17th most valuable player in this league but what has actually transpired is a completely different story. Brown's value has plummeted all the way down to Andrew Shaw territory at 143rd.

 

A bust that big is almost impossible to recover from and the worst part with Brown is that it wasn't exactly easy to see this coming. In the Dobber Exeprts' league, Brown was drafted in the third round by Steve Laidlaw. At the time I would have told you that he got some great value at that pick but Brown has been killing him all year and Laidlaw sits firmly in 12th place….MILES below yours truly (who is in 11th). In a league that competitive, having a third round pick flame out this badly is enough to sink your entire team's hopes.

 

📢 advertisement:

So what has caused the epic plummet for Brown? I touched on some of this in my article on underachievers at the break, but I will reiterate: Brown's fall is directly tied t