April 7, 2014

Dobber Sports

2014-04-07

What a difference a week has made. Last week I lamented the fact that the 16 teams making the playoffs are often not decided until the season is completely finished, making it difficult to do advanced work on the ninth annual Interactive Playoff Draft List (I’m releasing the first version of this on Friday). One week later and the East is pretty much a done deal (sorry New Jersey fans) and the West is down to nine teams.

What an embarrassment the Capitals have become. Alex Ovechkin is playing like he wants the coach to be fired. And while that may be true, it his desire so strong that it supersedes his desire to play in the playoffs? In 10 of his last 15 games, he was held pointless. He’s minus-18 in his last 18 games. While I still can’t bring myself to bench him in the one league I own him, nor can I recommend that to you, he is nonetheless doing more harm than good. As we head into the final week of the 2013-14 NHL season, you can’t bench him. Too much riding on it. I guess I sink or swim with him.

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One guy I won’t sink or swim with is Martin St. Louis…unless I don't have a reasonable option. My lead in that keeper league (the Forecaster league I often write about here) is down to 1.6 points – my 1549.6 to his 1548.0. I’m gunning for a three-peat, but have watched my lead dissipate from 19 points to this. And in the final week I made the call to keep Ovechkin active and had to choose between Martin St. Louis (three games) or Artem Anisimov (four games). A third option, Mike Ribeiro, gets a big “no thanks”. I’ll say this much – if it was a player even 1% better than Anisimov, I would go with him and his extra game. But I’m stuck with MSL.

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Nathan Horton has been sidelined for four games now and Cam Atkinson has points in each of them. Hopefully they learn to co-exist on the roster at the same time next year…

James Wisniewski has nine points in his last seven games. He’s three points shy of a career high. Gets 70 games out of this guy and he’s proven to be a stud, but therein lies the problem.

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Sidney Crosby, Chris Kunitz, Olli Määttä and Brooks Orpik were out of the lineup Sunday with various injuries. The injuries were said to be non-serious and of course no details were given, but I can give you the straight up goods right now – they were each suffering from rest-for-the-playoffs-itis. It’s an ailment the strikes many good teams in the final week of the season, screwing poolies around the world.

With Evgeni Malkin also out, Brendan Sutter became the No.1 center and he scored twice.

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Semyon Varlamov lost in the shootout, but is still 6-0-1 in his last seven starts. Sitting at 40 wins now, he has a shot at 43 (assuming he rests in one of the upcoming back-to-backs). The only reason you can’t count on him to top 40 every year is his health – but with that aside, he’s a lock to pile up the W’s for the next several years as this team matures.

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Why I like Mason as a No.2 goalie in fantasy hockey (besides the big contract, that is) – he gets the soft, cheesy win over Buffalo Sunday while Emery gets thrown to the wolves (Boston) on Saturday. If you think that’s a one-off, you’re mistaken. The Flyers want Mason to really emerge as ‘the guy’. So they’ll be pitching him every softball they can, pad his numbers and his confidence along with it.

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Despite two goals last night, Brayden Schenn has just 11 points in his last 30 games. Looking at his role in the lineup, it’s looking more and more like he will round into a 55-point player for the next several years. I think he’ll have trouble reaching his upside on this team.

Claude Giroux has just one point in his last five games. Another reason (along with Ovy, MSL) the gap has closed in my aforementioned fantasy league.

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 It finally happened – Tyler Seguin has passed Phil Kessel in the scoring race. So Seguin is third with 82 points, while Kessel is fourth with 80. Amazing how that Kessel trade has worked out, years later. And it looks like we’ll be watching the results (and changing our minds over and over about who won the deal) for years to come. Seguin has points in 15 of his last 16 games.

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Anaheim prospect Rickard Rakell has points in three of his last four games. He played with Silfverberg and Cogliano Sunday. He’s looking like a lock for a roster spot in the fall – or close to it. For more on Rakell, take a look at this.

Speaking of Silfverberg, he returned from his healthy scratch Sunday and scored a goal. He’s played 48 games this year (same as last year) and has improved his point total from 19 to 22. Not great, but not terrible. The injury early in the season impacted his season in terms of development, as well as the disruption of his role with the team. A clean slate in the fall with make all the difference.

Line combos for the Ducks last night:

 

15.51%

EV

7 COGLIANO,ANDREW – 67 RAKELL,RICKARD – 33 SILFVERBERG,JAKOB

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11.88%

EV

39 BELESKEY,MATT – 15 GETZLAF,RYAN – 10 PERRY,COREY

10.56%

EV

13 BONINO,NICK – 77 SMITH-PELLY,DEVANTE – 34 WINNIK,DANIEL

10.23%

EV

62 MAROON,PATRICK – 21 PALMIERI,KYLE – 22 PERREAULT,MATHIEU

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Six seasons in the NHL and Jonas Hiller‘s career high for wins is 30. You probably thought as I did – that his career best would be closer to 36 or 37. He’s a UFA in the summer and given the quality of the goalie marketplace for July 1, I would not feel comfortable owning Hiller in a keeper league. So many ways this could end up.

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 Steve Ott is minus-8 in his last five games and he’s minus-11 in 19 games with St. Louis.

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More of the rest-for-the-playoffs-itis: Brandon Saad was a healthy scratch for the Blackhawks Sunday. With him out, Bryan Bickell picked up his second point in three games as he gets revving for the postseason (if you recall – he was a stud last year).

Jeremy Morin has four points in his last three games. I wouldn’t count on it to continue, given that Saad will return, but I do like his outlook for making this team in October. Morin’s outlook is still on that edge between potential second-liner and potential checking-liner. For more on Morin, go here.

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Morin sets up Sharp here:

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Luongo gets just enough of this one to tip it wide:

 

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