The fantasy hockey outlook for the players on the disappointing Vancouver Canucks

With a gutsy 2-1 victory over the Los Angeles Kings on Saturday night, the Canucks prolonged their inevitable mathematical elimination from the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Saturday's performance was promising but it came much too late. After last weekend's 5-1 thrashing courtesy of Anaheim, the entire city of Vancouver had already watched the sun set on the Canucks first exclusion from the post season since 2007-2008. The city is already well past the denial phase and working its way through the acceptance phase.

It has been an interesting week for the franchise to say the least. Mike Gillis held a press conference where he declared that nobody was safe this off season, including himself. So for those players who lack the security of a No Trade Clause and for those named John Tortorella, this could be a time for concern. During his press conference Gillis stated that the team needed to get back to the way it used to play. But in firing Alain Vigneault and hiring Tortorella didn't Gillis (and ownership) suggest that they wanted to change the way the team played? Somebody start the bus.

For the last three months the city has screamed for Mike Gillis' firing while questioning the fit of John Tortorella behind the bench. In less than a calendar year both Cory Schneider and Roberto Luongo have been shipped away and the rumors of a Ryan Kesler departure are still fresh despite Kesler's recent statement that he wants to stay. There are signs that a whole sale change is coming to Vancouver, but there are also indications that the team will remain status quo. The bus is on its way to Vancouver and everybody is taking cover, but it does not appear that anyone is in imminent danger of being run over.

The regular season will wrap up in a week and we are still miles away from the entry draft and July's free agency window. There will be some tweaks in Vancouver but with four years remaining on the contracts of both Gillis and Tortorella those tweaks will not come in the form of a management or coaching change, at least not this summer. It is more practical to anticipate that the roster will undergo a bit of an overhaul but fans should not expect anything drastic. With this assumption in mind let's take a look at some potential changes and the fantasy value left in Vancouver.

The Sedins

Over the past few months there have been endless comments about the decline of the Sedins. Tack on the fact that Henrik's ironman streak came to an abrupt end this season while Daniel spent his share of time on the mend and many fantasy owners are likely on the fence regarding the value of the twins. A snapshot of their respective point per game paces over the past five seasons suggests a sell high is in order, as their point per game numbers have declined each year since 2009-2010.

Henrik Sedin

2009-2010: 1.37            

2010-2011: 1.15                                

2011-2012: 0.99                                

2012-2013: 0.94                                    

2013-2014: 0.71 

Daniel Sedin  

2009-2010: 1.35    

2010-2011: 1.27                    

2011-2012: 0.93                              

2012-2013: 0.83      

2013-2014: 0.65 

But is it really this bad when it comes to the twins? Should we expect a .71 pace (58 points) from Henrik and a .65 pace (53 points) from Daniel going forward? It would be naïve to think that the Sedins have reduced themselves to worse than 60 point players. Maybe their 80 points seasons are behind them, but the truth lies somewhere in the middle.  In fact if you look at the first half of this season, they were both producing at decent clip. Both Sedins started out with 35 points in their first 42 games, which prorates at approximately 70 points each. Also, it is worth noting that Henrik had a nice start producing at a point per game pace over the first quarter of the season.

First Quarter Summary (Henrik Sedin)

To judge the Sedins on the last half of this season would be a mistake for their owners. Both are 70 point assets in one year leagues for at least the next two seasons. In keeper leagues it is obviously worth trading them for younger assets at this point if the right deal comes up, but underselling them would be a huge error. This season has been a blip with injuries slowing them down and hurting their playing time together when they both thrive. Also, consider the fact that Henrik played a bunch of games injured with little chance he was going to produce – which negatively skewed his numbers even more. Finally, when thinking of Henrik's ironman streak we must also realize the impact it had on Daniel who has never been forced to play without his brother, at least not for the past 10 seasons. No wonder he looked so lost out there at times. It would be wishful to expect 80 point seasons, but 70-75 points is achievable and we should see the twins very motivated to bounce back in 2014-2015.

The Goalies

Vancouver fans should expect to see some changes in the crease during the summer. Relying on the tandem of Eddie Lack and Jacob Markstrom would be short sighted to say the least. The team needs to look at bringing another goalie into the mix to challenge Lack for the starting job while testing whether Markstrom can hang around and be the back-up. In Markstrom's defense, he has only seen some relief action in one game so far and once the Canucks are officially eliminated we should see him get a start or two.

As for Lack, he has been average since Roberto Luongo was traded to Florida in early March. Below is a snapshot of Lack's numbers since effectively taking over the starting gig after the Olympic break.

Eddie Lack (February 26/14 to April 5/14)

Lack has looked great at times this season, but he has been inconsistent just like the team in front of him. A save percentage of .901 and a GAA of 2.58 over the last 18 games is not good enough and we will likely see Gillis at least sign a goalie that will challenge Lack. The market is currently available with unrestricted free agents Ryan Miller, Jaroslav Halak, Brian Elliott, Jonas Hiller, Ilya Bryzgalov, Thomas Greiss, and even the awkward thought of Tim Thomas in a Vancouver uniform is a possibility.

From a fantasy perspective Lack has the potential to be a lower level tier one goalie. At this point however, he should be treated as a lower level tier two goalie that carries the risk of not even being a starter as early as the half way point of 2014-2015.

The Blue Line

In my debut Wild West column I put together an article that combined the top four fantasy relevant defensemen from each team in the Western Conference and put together a top five list based on points, power play points, plus-minus, and shots on goal. The combination of Vancouver's top four fantasy relevant blue liners (Kevin Bieksa, Alex Edler, Dan Hamhuis, Jason Garrison) did not crack the top five overall but they did finished first overall in one category – shots on goal. All four of them currently sit in the top 30 in the league in this category.

There is still a ton of fantasy value and real life value in the Canucks defensive corps as all four of these players are capable of consistently putting up 30-40 points per season on a regular basis. Garrison has two seasons where he has surpassed 30 points. Bieksa has two seasons where he has topped 40 points. In four of his six career seasons, Edler has posted over 30 points, successfully passing 40 points on two occasions. Hamhuis has also had two seasons with over 30 points. Tack on the steady play of Chris Tanev who has been an impressive plus-13 this year and overall the team has a deep defensive core, one that most teams would envy.

There have been some shallow points this year without question and it would be naïve to ignore the fact that Alexander Edler leads all defensemen in the league this season with a worst overall minus-32. When analyzing Edler's career though, this should be considered a humongous blip. In six seasons with the Canucks, Edler has only finished with a minus rating one other time when he was minus-5 in 2012-2013.

Alexandre Burrows

With a zero in his name to remind all of us how he miraculously played over 30 games without scoring a goal, Burrows is another Canuck who severely underperformed this year. Recently he has gotten back to his usual ways.  During the fourth quarter of the season he has managed five goals and four assists in his last 17 games. His recent run would prorate to just over 20 goals and 20 assists over 82 games – numbers we have come to expect from Burrows.

Fourth Quarter Summary

Before this season Burrows had the following goal totals.

2008-2009: 28 goals  

2009-2010: 35 goals                    

2010-2011: 26 goals                                        

2011-2012: 28 goals                                      

2012-2013: 13 (prorates to a 22 goal season after last year's lockout)

Like the Sedins and Edler, here is another example of a blip rather than the norm. We should expect a few more 20 goal/20 assist campaigns from Burrows and perhaps even 25-25-50 if he recaptures his chemistry with the Sedins. To expect him to repeat his 26 point pace from this year is unrealistic. Plus, with a no trade clause, he is not going anywhere.  With three more seasons remaining on his contract Burrows will get every opportunity to succeed.

Conclusion

Unless their name is Luongo, no Canuck is getting run over by a bus anytime soon. If Tortorella successfully modifies the team's style and the players can leave the last half of this season in the past, the team has the pieces to make the playoffs in 2014-2015. At the half way point of this season the Canucks were eight points clear in a playoff spot and within three points of both San Jose and Los Angeles. They will not be a Stanley Cup contender anytime soon, but all hope is not lost considering this was a season where almost everything went wrong. If the Sedins and Kesler stay healthy and the team shores up their goaltending, they are easily a top eight team in the West again.

From a fantasy perspective, now is a perfect time to buy low on some Canucks. Just remind your trading partner that the team is a fantasy abyss that currently sits last in the Western Conference in goals for with just 187 this season. Of course, the fantasy relevance of the team all comes down to a change in coaching style. Based on Gillis' recent comments, we should expect an adjustment that boosts player values across the board.

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