Dobber here. I’m running a little UFC ‘pick’em’ pool in the forum – have some fun and throw your hat in the ring here!

 

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First Ramblings for me in several months, so hi again everyone!

 

Three games were on the slate for Friday evening, and although all were of vital importance – what playoff game isn't? – none had series clinching potential.

 

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The big story in the Flyers/Rangers match-up was Steve Mason finally starting in net. How do I think he did overall?

 

 

 

Actually, he was sensational in getting his – believe it or not – first ever NHL playoff win. And Mason's great game was made all the more impressive with defensive stalwart Niklas Grossmann having left the game with an injury, bringing the Flyers down to five d-men.

 

Do I think the Flyers would've been winning the series had Mason started the previous three games? Maybe, maybe not. Mason arrived at game four with pressure, but insulated pressure – that is, if he played poorly, it wouldn't have been looked upon as his fault since he was hurt and there was the series deficit already hanging over his head.

 

What's key for the Flyers is even if they lose this series, Mason allows them not to focus their summer on figuring out who'll be their #1 in the fall. Not a bad consolation prize.

 

Brayden Schenn looked very good as well, but he baffles me overall.  No way would I have figured on him being just a 0.5 points per game guy by now.  Sure, he's still only 22 but I worry that he might never make the leap.

 

As for New York, once again it strikes me like they're falling victim to not playing to their fullest potential, probably at least in part because they feel like Henrik Lundqvist can just win games for them. Some teams rally around great goalies, others use them as a crutch.

 

Fun (or not fun, if you’re a Rangers fan) fact –  in this game New York’s shots total went down each period. Not good.

 

I was also surprised to hear them announce during the game that Dan Girardi – he of the seven hits and five blocked shots – was playing in his 68th playoff game, tying him with Adam Graves. Of course Graves managed that total in only five playoff seasons, while Girardi is already in his seventh playoff campaign. That further underscores the failings of the Rangers come playoff time in recent years.

 

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I'm not sure what to make of the Chicago vs. St. Louis series overall (game 5 was tied at the end of regulation as I'm posting this), other than neither squad looking dominant for the short or long term. During the broadcast I was reminded that the two teams sent the most players to Sochi, so a seven game series is the last thing they want. But don't you feel like we're headed there?

 

A bit of a step down game from Vladimir Tarasenko, although it was interesting to see that he was on PP1. Nice gig, if he can keep it. Tarasenko is beyond where I expected him to be at this point in his career, although the fact that he missed a chunk of games in both his two seasons scares me a bit. Let's just hope this Russian Tank doesn't run out of gas like the last one.

 

And Kevin Shattenkirk has been an offensive machine, especially on the PP, where prior to Friday (which saw the Blackhawks take only three minor penalties) he was averaging 5:27 per game to put himself tied for second among all defensemen (tied with Ryan McDonagh, who played 6:24 with the man advantage on Friday, but behind Matt Niskanen's 5:37).

 

If Shattenkirk ever found a way to have a second half as productive as his first half (this year it was 36 points through January, nine points from February onward), he'd be amazing. But for two years it's been first half Dr. Jeckyll, second half Mr. Hyde.

 

Nice also to see David Backes return to the ice. Of course he's not 100%, but you wouldn't know it from his seven hits by the end of regulation, which were ahead of his pace (5.5) from the first two games.

 

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Whether they emerge from round one or not, I'm really impressed with Dallas. Keep in mind this summer they rid themselves of the shell of his former self that Ray Whitney has become, and next summer (sooner if they use a buyout) it'll be adios to Shawn Horcoff, Sergei Gonchar and Eric Cole.

 

Even if the team brings in new free agents there still should be plenty of room for the likes of Colton Sceviour, Cody Eakin, and Alex Chiasson to get the chance to step up and produce. And don't sleep on Jordie Benn, who had seven points in 15 March games while averaging 21:41 per game and had parlayed that into two playoff points (+4 rating) and 22+ minutes per contest through game four.

 

Another Dallas player to focus on is Ryan Garbutt. Yes, he's already 28 years old, but in 2013-14 he tallied 32 points in 75 games (plus 106 PIMs and 141 hits) despite never averaging more than 14:07 in ice time per game during any month of the season. And his 1.96 points per 60 minutes of ice time for 2013-14 was ahead of Tyler Johnson, Evander Kane, Daniel Sedin, and Justin Williams, among others. Could he be next season's Tommy Wingels?

 

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Even though I talked about playoff stats already (and will some more below), I'll also make a public service reminder that you should resist the concept of mid-career fantasy reclamation or late blooming during the NHL's second season. After all, the road is littered with the likes of Bryan Bickell (5th in playoff points last season), Bryce Salvador (7th in 2011-12), and of course Ville Leino (who tallied 21 points in 19 playoff games in 2010-11……and 46 in 137 subsequent games).

 

That means it's best to take what we're seeing from the likes of Paul Martin and Paul Stastny with a pretty big grain of salt. Particularly Stastny, who'd last surpassed 57 points in a season back in 2009-10 but who – just like Bickell last year – is conveniently playing for a new contract while lighting it up.

 

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As far as stars, chances are during the playoffs they'll either just go ahead and pad their already long resumes or most likely won't hurt their future production if they don't. In other words, there's no need to worry about guys like Ryan Callahan (zero points, -2 rating in four games) or Patrick Sharp (zero points in four games and none through regulation in game five). Think of it this way – what player doesn't have a stretch of two points in seven games or three points in ten games during the season? It just seems worse in the playoffs due to the added spotlight.

 

But I will say that seeing Dustin Brown put up a goose egg (with only 4 shots on goal!) in the first three games of the LA/SJ series on top of his dismal season was definitely troubling. Sure – what we witnessed on Thursday was definitely vintage Dustin Brown (two points, four shots, TEN hits), but his overall body of work this season has been nothing short of dreadful. Unless it's revealed that he was battling a nagging injury for most of the season, there have to be concerns about him returning to the 50+ point multi-cat monster he had proven himself to be over the years.

 

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And what can be said about Los Angeles as a whole? We've all seen or heard the data that puts Jonathan Quick in the middle of the pack some areas (like save %, where he has only one season of better than 91.8%); but that was always easy to dismiss because he shined in the playoffs when it counted. My question is – could we be seeing the first signs of Quick morphing into Marc-Andre Fleury 2.0?

 

The comparison actually isn't so farfetched in that Fleury won a Stanley Cup at age of 24 in his third playoffs as a starter, while Quick won his at age 26 in what was also his third playoffs as his team's #1. Since then Fleury hasn't finished a season with a playoff Save % over 90.0%, and although Quick had a fine playoffs last season, now he looks like he could barely stop a beach ball, giving up three more goals (albeit on 39 shots in a winning effort) on Thursday.

 

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Since we can now close the book on the 2013-14 season for Tampa Bay, it's worth talking about their six foot six inch elephant in the room – Anders Lindback. He only turns 26 in May, but is there any hope of him truly developing into the goalie the Lightning thought they were getting when they gave up…..pause to let Tampa fans brace themselves……two second round picks AND a third rounder to get him from Nashville in 2012?! After Lindback's dismal performance all year it wouldn't be surprising to see the Lightning admit defeat and willingly bid him adieu (or whatever is Swedish for adieu).

 

And looking ahead, as great as Ben Bishop was in 2013-14, unlike Dobber I'd consider selling high. Keep in mind that Bishop will only make $2.4M in 2014-15, which means that he'll get a shorter leash than a more expensive #1 guy would. And if you need a reminder about the danger of anointing a goalie the next great thing on the basis of one season, I'll remind you of Mike Liut, Darren Puppa, and Byron Dafoe, who each won more than 30 games only once and were Vezina nominees that same season.

 

And for what it's worth, despite reports out of Tampa suggesting they're "in the mix," I'd put the odds of Callahan re-signing just slightly above those of Martin St. Louis and Steve Yzerman sharing golf outings this offseason. In other words – not gonna happen.

 

I'm sure Tampa would like nothing more than to have Callahan return, but he didn't seem to fit there at all and some other team will throw crazy money at him this summer. If it was up to me, I'd love to see him land in Colorado to basically become their version of Dustin Brown………the circa 2007-2011 Dustin Brown that is.

 

And for what it's worth, Valteri Filppula apparently was playing hurt in round one, which might explain his poor production (one point, -4 in four games).

 

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Speaking of Filppula, this is the time of year when I like to make notes on what happened in the final chunk of the regular season. Why? Because by the time free agency commences everything will be a big blur, making it hard to think back to players who were white hot at the end of the season but whose stats over the entire year are not as remarkable.

 

Guys like Filppula, Mikko Koivu, Derek Stepan, David Desharnais, Blake Wheeler, Kimmo Timonen, Mark Streit, and Dan Boyle were considerably more productive over the last 25% or so of the regular season than they were for the rest of the campaign, which one would think bodes better for 2014-15 than what their comparatively less impressive overall stats for 2013-14 would suggest. Do yourself a favor and file that information in your memory banks.

 

In a similar vein, I also take time now to remember players who were not among the top league scorers due to injury issues but who had a very healthy scoring average in the games they managed to play. I mean forwards like Tyler Bozak (only 49 points, but .84 points per game), Johan Franzen (41 points, 0.76 per game), and Marian Gaborik (30 points, 0.73 per game), as well as defensemen like Kris Letang (22 points, 0.59 per game), Dennis Wideman (21 points, .46 per game), and Lubimor Visnovsky (11 points, 0.46 per game).

 

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You'll notice I haven't talked about Anaheim yet. My sense is even if they get past Dallas, their injury issues probably keep them from making a deep run. The good news for them is win or lose I think they're the favorites to get Ryan Miller over the summer.

 

Here's my logic – even if this isn't the final contract that Miller inks, it's likely the last one where he'll be "the guy." And if he definitely wanted to stay in St. Louis, then I'm guessing both sides would've found a way to get a deal done. When that didn't happen, it became clear that Miller wants to see which other clubs are interested in his services.

 

I see Anaheim offering Miller a four year deal for enough to make it impossible for him to refuse, especially given the west coast ties of his actress wife. Then the Ducks use Frederick Andersen as a capable back-up for at least next season (he's signed through 2015-16) before ushering in John Gibson, who'll be poised to step into the #1 gig when Miller's deal is done.

 

In other words, think of Gibson now as Tuukka Rask circa 2007 or 2008. Sorry Gibson owners – you'll need to be patient.

 

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So let's say that Miller does land in Anaheim; what's the ripple effect on the other UFA goalies? The only other "names" that would be left are Jonas Hiller and Jaroslav Halak, and both of them have their share of questions marks, including Hiller not starting yet again on Friday.

 

But they look great by comparison to the other upcoming goalie UFAs, which represent a mish-mosh of the old (Tim Thomas, Evgeni Nabokov), the never been a true #1 (Brian Elliott, Ray Emery, Thomas Greiss), the Brett Favre (Martin Brodeur), and the may or may not be from planet earth (Ilya Byzgalov).

 

Given the poor UFA landscape, my guess as of now is Hiller and Halak go to Washington, Long Island, or Minnesota, while St. Louis makes a trade to get Cam Ward – a 30 year old former Conn Smythe winner that has shown he can carry the load and pressure of being a true #1 goalie. If you're looking for a buy low guy for right now, it's Ward; but be quick, since once the playoffs are over his name will be all over trade rumors (even more so than now), driving up his price.

 

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One goalie who you'll notice I didn't include in the "never been a #1" list is Chad Johnson, who actually won an astonishing 17 of the first 21 games he started this season (before dropping his final two starts). And lest you think those were all cupcake games, he posted a 94.6% save percentage in seven games against playoff teams.

 

Sure – when all is said and done Johnson is a 27 year old who has only played in 35 NHL games; but we all know that goalies often mature later than others, and some could've been great earlier but simply didn't get a chance. Don't sleep on Johnson – he could be a big surprise on the right team in 2014-15 and beyond.

 

The risk is if he stays with the Bruins he'll probably get fewer starts in 2014-15 since there won't be the compressed schedule like there was this past season due to Sochi. That also should be kept in mind if he leaves and the Bruins bring in a new back-up, who therefore wouldn't have the kind of value Johnson did this year in certain leagues.

 

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Yet another thing I like to do this time of year is to wonder about the "come out of nowhere" team for next season will be. Of course it'll depend to some extent on personnel and front office changes, but I like Florida and Carolina to possibly improve enough to make the playoffs.

 

For Carolina, I think they find "Ewing Theory" type inspiration if Cam Ward is dealt. And I say this even though I basically trashed Eric Staal in one of my Cage Match columns from earlier this month. But the team has the assets necessary to compete, and if Khudobin stands on his head, they'll surprise.

 

As for Florida, call me crazy but I think Roberto Luongo has something left in the tank. And a lot of Panthers played much worse this past season than they really are capable of, especially Jonathan Huberdeau, who I see as a lock for 30+ goals next season.

 

I also really think Nick Bjugstad is poised to make a big leap, along with Alexander Barkov, who offered us just a taste of his huge talent before his unfortunate injury in Sochi. I'm not saying to rush out and stack your fantasy squad with guys from either of these teams, but keep this in mind come draft day and maybe you'll find yourself with a few nice bargains.

 

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I'll conclude by saying that I'm genuinely worried at this point about Edmonton, mainly because of the prolonged culture and atmosphere of losing. Sure – any team can rebuild for a season or two, but the Oilers have been terrible for so long that it's all guys like Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Justin Schultz have ever known, and that might make it tough to right the ship.

 

There's a difference between being hungry after losing for a couple of years, versus feeling like the losing has been around forever and amounts to a hole out of which you cannot climb no matter what you try to do. Edmonton can bring in a new coach or new players, but I'm afraid that by this time next year Oilers fans and fantasy GMs will be firing up this song once again: