May 3, 2014

Darren Kennedy

2014-05-03

The Daily Ramblings are a lot like Madison Square Garden. Players want to play there – it's a grand stage with a long and storied history. If you're a poolie, then I can't think of a better place than this community to be providing your thoughts. A big thanks to Dobber for the shoulder tap and letting me run with them this morning. I'll try not to throw any blind passes up the middle, or spend too much time ranting and raving about Nail Yakupov (as I am wont to do). Onto today's ramblings…

 

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There has been fallout (boy has there EVER been fallout) after the San Jose-Los Angeles game seven. Many talk show hosts have been asking if it's time to give up on guys like Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau. Some going as far as stating that they must be traded in order to save the Franchise, pass the torch to Couture and Pavelski, yadda, yadda, yadda… All of this reminds me that it's often easier to be outraged then it is to look at a situation with balanced perspective. Outrage is a bit more fun and hey you get to use exclamation marks liberally!!!

 

 

Is it disappointing that San Jose lost? Certainly. Should they have been able to win one of those four games? Yes. Does losing to one of hockey's best teams (LA was third in the league for Corsi % – 61.3 at five on five) in seven games mean that your roster is fatally flawed? No.

 

Over the years we've been forced to come to grip with the fact that random things can happen in hockey. A puck misses the top corner by an inch, or a bad penalty call allows a team to score late. I don't subscribe to the theory that Thornton and Marleau are missing the mythological "winning" gene (scientists are yet to map this one out, despite valiant efforts) that only guys like Toews and Bergeron seem to carry. They're both fantastic hockey players.

 

 

All that a team can do year-to-year is put together the best team possible and carry the play as often as they can. Outside of maybe Detroit, no team has done this more consistently in the modern era than San Jose (they haven't missed the post season since 2002-2003). Sure, it would have been nice if they made it to a cup final, or more regularly out of the first round. Some of those losses can be explained by poor play, others by bad luck, and sometimes (like this year) there were simply two good teams playing and someone ultimately had to go home.

 

I hope for the sake of Sharks' fans that Doug Wilson is able to avoid the growing pressure to placate media outlets and impose change for the sake of change. He has a terrific hockey team that will likely be among the top five or so contenders again next year. And really, what more could you reasonably ask for?

 

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The New York Rangers beat Pittsburgh three to two on an overtime goal from Derick Brassard (2012's trendy sleeper pick that I've drafted too high on many occasions).

 

Still no goals from Sidney Crosby or Rick Nash (although hey did combine for seven shots) which means we'll be treated with another 48 hours of "is Crosby still the best player in hockey?" The answer is "yes", by the way.

 

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I still think this could end up being a relatively easy series for Pittsburgh. The Penguins won the shot battle 36 to 27, although they were down two goals after the first which may have had an impact.

 

New York has a clear advantage in net with Lundqvist over Fluery, but they don't have nearly the same options offensively. Where Pittsburgh could really make a difference is on the power play. There were eight penalties tonight and if that number can stay high it will favour the Penguins (they led the NHL with a 23.4% success rate, while the Rangers were 15th at 18.2%).

 

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Is it time to think of Brad Richards as a fantasy asset again? Did I really just write that?! The 34 year old scored again last night, giving him 7 points and 29 shots in 8 post season contests. This following up a 51 point, 259 shot regular season.

 

His days of a point per game are clearly over. But if he's posting north of 50 with top 15 shot totals we need to think of him as a strong option. Of course there are some lingering questions heading into next season, like will he be bought-out? I'm guessing a long playoff run will help in his argument to stay long term. Although perhaps he is doomed regardless, with management being all too familiar with ill-fated, big money, lengthy deals (Redden, Drury, Gomez…etc)

 

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Chicago defeated Minnesota five to two. I feel for the Wild a bit in this series. They have a nice team and some decent depth, but Chicago is just a powerhouse with quality players at virtually every position. It's hard to see this one going past five games.  

 

Some of the notable stats from this one were; two assists and four shots for Mr.Everything Patrick Sharp, a couple goals for Bryan Bickell (the playoff magic continues), three points and five shots for Marian Hossa, and two goals for Patrick Kane. There probably isn't a more robust fantasy squad than Chicago these days. Tough to see anything changing when 2014-15 rolls around.

 

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Dany Heatley continued his mini-renaissance adding another assist last night (up to four points in two games) After a 28 point, 110 shot season it's probably time to officially close the book on his career. That said, a few more productive playoff games and I'm sure his agent will be able to convince someone he's worth a shot at two million next year. I'll read some reports about him being in "the best shape of his career" this offseason and end up drafting him in the late rounds. Such is life as a poolie.

 

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There is still a lot of lingering anger towards Dustin Brown on twitter. And I get it, a guy posts 27 points when managers were expecting 50 and he's bound to get a bit of hate mail. But I wonder if the pendulum hasn't swung too far in one direction?

 

Consider that Brown is only 29. Which is old, but certainly not "your career is over and you're now a fourth liner old." He was straddled with a 7.7% shooting percentage, well below his career average of 10.1%. Furthermore, he had only one power play goal despite seeing 2:07 per game on the man advantage.

 

All of this cobbled together makes me think he'll be a great value play in 2014-15, especially if your league has hits. 45 points and around 200 shots on goal is entirely possible. I do realize that this article will be sent to me in 12 months' time with the headline WHAT WERE YOU THINKING? if he end with another sub-30 point year. Sigh.

 

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I stumbled onto Eric Tulsky's work earlier this season over at his SB Nation Blog – Outnumbered. I have to say he is quickly becoming one of my favourite writers. He recently posted an article on defence and the importance of zone entries. One part jumped out at me:

 

It turns out that neutral zone play is a huge factor in a team’s shot differential (and by inference, puck possession). Even after we control for a bunch of factors — odd-man rushes, dump-ins just to get a line change, the skill of the players in question — it turns out that a carry-in generates more than twice as many shots, scoring chances, and goals as a dump-in.


What does this mean for you? Well for starters, you can stop dumping the puck in deep during your Sunday beer league. If guys start yelling at you from the bench just tell them "hey, I'm trying to improve our team Corsi, alright!"

 

For fantasy this could be a key stat that acts as a leading indicator for future success. If we know that zone entries are an integral part of generating shots and shots lead to goals, then it stands to reason that those who carry the puck in most often will be successful. A great example would be a younger player who has strong zone entry numbers, but has yet to receive adequate power play time from his coach. This could be someone for you to target a bit earlier in your draft.

 

Of course I may be taking too much of a mental leap to apply this directly to fantasy. Nonetheless, it's an interesting metric to keep an eye on and I'll surely be badgering Eric with more questions over twitter.

 

 

Darren Kennedy is a fantasy hockey writer and once traded Jamie Benn and significant draft picks for Ilya Kovalchuk (it hurts less and less every day). You can follow him on twitter @fantasyhockeydk

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