T.J. and P.K.

Dobber Sports

2014-05-13

PKSubban



This week the Eastern Edge takes a look at two defensemen at opposite ends of the spectrum




T.J. Brennan had himself a season to remember down in the AHL. The soon to be unrestricted free agent had been hoping to play at least part of the season in the NHL this year after signing a one-year, one-way contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs. He probably should have picked a team a little more desperate for defensemen; the Maple Leafs were deep enough at the position that they didn’t feel the need to call up the 25-year-old. At least he was well compensated ($600K) for his time with the Marlies.

 

From an organizational standpoint, they got their money’s worth though. Brennan recorded an amazing 25 goals and 72 points in 76 games, finishing fourth overall in AHL scoring, while copping the Eddie Shore trophy as the league’s top defenseman. If there was a roto-league MVP for the AHL, Brennan would have taken home that hardware as well. He led the league in shots on goal (265) and power play points (44), sat for 115 penalty minutes and he scored 10 more goals than the next defenseman. He was however, a minus-10, third worst on his own team.

 

Brennan had 37 goals and 116 points in 192 games over three seasons in the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League. In his first three seasons of professional hockey, he recorded 92 points in 189 AHL games, a 40 point pace pro-rated over 82 games. He also had a cup of coffee with Buffalo, playing in 11 NHL games, recording one point. It was in 2012-13 that Brennan really started putting up outstanding numbers in the AHL. He had 14 goals and 35 points in 36 games. That year, he also played 10 games with the Sabres, again recording one lonely point, but he was dealt at the deadline to Florida where he flashed some of his offensive ability, registering nine points in 19 NHL games.

 

So is this guy going to be the second coming of Dustin Byfuglien or will he never make the leap from AHL superstar to NHL regular? The key will be for him to improve enough defensively, so that he’s not a huge liability in his own end. If he can clean up that part of his game, he could put up some very nice numbers for his fantasy owners as well. Watch what team he signs with this off-season and be ready to scoop a potential darkhorse.

P.K. Subban has to know that if he were heading into unrestricted free agency he would command a king’s ransom and that his soon to be restricted free agent status may limit how much he’s going to make over the duration of his next contract. If I were P.K.’s agent, I would advise the 25-year-old (Happy Birthday P.K.) not to be in a rush to sign a new contract. How many teams out there would give their right arm to have a player like Subban in their line-up and pay through the nose for it?

 

If I’m a rival General Manager, and my owner would allow it, I would offer Subban $10-12M per year for the maximum seven years and damn the torpedoes. If Montreal matched, it would hamstring them financially and put them in a bad place cap-wise. I know it’s against the “unwritten code” and I strongly suspect Montreal would match any offer sheet, but even if there is a slight chance that you could acquire a player of Subban’s ilk for draft picks, don’t you go for it? He’s dynamic, physical, a real difference-maker out there who will eat up north of 25 minutes a night and he isn’t exactly media shy. This is a guy who can change a game through sheer force of his personality and physical abilities. He would be well worth every cent (or nickel if you’re Canadian).

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With the cap going up appreciably and Montreal only having two of their top six defensemen under contract for next year, it could be the perfect time to throw out an outrageous offer sheet for Subban. The team also has the expiring contracts of Lars Eller (restricted) and Brian Gionta (unrestricted) to deal with.

 

I question whether there are any hard feelings from his last contract negotiations that saw Subban miss the start of the lockout shortened campaign in 2013, after the Canadiens played hardball with the young defenseman, essentially forcing him to sign a two year, $5.75M deal. If the Habs were just “doing business”, then certainly Subban can reciprocate. Now, I’m not saying that he feels this way and by all accounts, he loves playing in Montreal (how could he not?); all I’m trying to say, is that P.K. shouldn’t sell himself short financially. Why should he sign before seeing if a team will step up with an offer sheet that might net him several millions of dollars more? How much money would you leave on the table if you were faced with that decision? Subban has much more leverage now than he did back before the 2013 season.

 

Another possibility is that he signs a four or five year deal with Montreal, which would leave him an unrestricted free agent when he is 29 or 30 years old and allow him to potentially sign another big deal or “retirement” contract while still in his prime.

 

He’d have no trouble making new friends wherever he goes and will be a fan favourite no matter where he plays, well, maybe not in Boston, but pretty much everywhere else. Montreal would be wise to pay up now or face an offer sheet of serious proportions come July. I’ll be watching with interest to see if the Canadiens are able to lock up their stud defenseman to a long-term deal before free agency hits.


Recently from Eastern Edge:

 

The Best Defense(man) is Good Offense 
Top 15 Fantasy Losers – Eastern Style 
Top 15 Fantasy Winners – Eastern Style 


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