What Tyler Johnson’s contract extension means for his cap league value.

One of the most pleasant surprises this season was the emergence of Calder candidate Tyler Johnson. The 23-year-old centerman potted 24 goals and 50 points while taking advantage of opportunities created by some major injuries, most notably to superstar Steven Stamkos. In cap leagues he carried additional value due to his $900,000 cap hit that made him one of the best bargains in the entire league.

Unfortunately for poolies, Johnson has now completed the final year of his entry-level contract and has already signed a new three-year contract with Tampa Bay. The new cap hit of $3,333,333 is a significant raise which has severe implications on his fantasy-league value.

Opportunity

Believe it or not, there are positives to be taken from this contract despite the huge raise. At just 5’9 Johnson fell into the category of undersized player that had to battle for every opportunity on his way to the NHL. Even with early success in the NHL, he could have fallen out of the mix for a number of reasons. But with a larger cap hit comes job security. He will not be buried down the depth chart when things do not go his way for a few games which will help maximize his production in all formats.

Points-only leagues

To put into perspective Johnson’s value in points-only leagues this past season, here were the top 10 forwards in dollars per point courtesy of Capgeek:

If you increase his cap hit to his new cost of over $3.3 million, his value becomes $66,000 which severely affects his ranking. His value moving forward is not bad by any means provided that he is able to maintain his current scoring clip. It just takes him out of cap bargain territory unless he is able to become an elite offensive player, which is unlikely to happen.

To take a closer look at Johnson’s new value, let’s take a look at the 2013-14 production of some cap hit comparables, once again courtesy of Capgeek:

Among the 20 players listed here, Johnson ranked fifth, only eight points behind group leader Kyle Turris. But among this group you will also find many offensive duds putting Johnson in good company.

Multi-category leagues

Depending on the league, Johnson’s value could range from being closer to his points-only value to being close to star status. Here were some of his areas of strength during his rookie season:

Johnson’s biggest strengths are SHP and FOW which can make him extremely valuable if your league counts those categories. But overall his value will depend on the format. Consider the following three example league setups along with his league rank according to Fantasy Hockey Geek:

Final thoughts

While Johnson’s new contract does remove the outstanding bang for the buck that he once provided, it is a well-deserved raise that simply represents the cost of doing business. The player has shown an ability to do very well in many different situations and gets paid as such.

From a fantasy perspective, this should not push you away from owning him. Depending on the format, his cap value ranges from fair to borderline stardom. Sure, there are always other bargain players out there, especially those with ongoing entry-level deals. But gambling on such unproven commodities can be dangerous. After all, Johnson himself was not seen as a sure thing at this time last year. Fast-forward to today and Johnson has proven plenty while the politics of his new contract will help keep him in a position to succeed in Tampa Bay.